Football writer Alex Keble analyses where this weekend’s fixtures could be won and lost, including:
– Does Maresca’s departure hand Man City an even greater advantage?
– Can Watkins help Villa make sure Emirates collapse was a one-off?
– Can Arsenal control Bournemouth chaos?
– Can Leeds beat Man Utd for the first time since 2002?
– Will Wissa inspire quick start to capitalise on Palace’s fatigue?
– Will Brighton race out of the blocks and end their winless run?
– Will Wolves build on Old Trafford draw and get first win of the season?
– Can Frank avoid another flat 90 minutes?
– Can Thiago or Barry break open a low-scoring match at Everton?
– Can Fulham take advantage of Liverpool’s creativity issues?
Does Maresca’s departure hand Man City an even greater advantage?
Enzo Maresca’s shock departure now hangs over a clash at the Etihad Stadium that had promised to be one of the fixtures of the season.
Of course it could still be, and just a few days after their 0-0 draw at Sunderland widened the gap to Arsenal to four points, Manchester City could still fear Chelsea.
But Pep Guardiola will probably feel more confident than he did at the start of the week.
It would be surprising if Chelsea’s Under-21s coach Calum McFarlane, taking temporary charge of the first team, is able to match Guardiola’s tactical nous. Man City have won their last eight Premier League matches at the Etihad, scoring three or more goals in each of the last five.
They are reaching the point of being unplayable on home turf. This is not the ideal environment for a young coach managing his first-ever game of senior football.
Not that we should write off McFarlane and Chelsea. Maresca lost both meetings with Guardiola last season and Chelsea haven’t won a single one of their nine matches against Man City since beating them in the 2021 UEFA Champions League final.
They need to try something new, to shake things up. Who knows, the freshness of McFarlane could just catch their hosts off guard.
Can Watkins help Villa make sure Emirates collapse was a one-off?
This is a huge match for Aston Villa.
Their second-half collapse at Emirates Stadium on Tuesday has the potential to be a watershed moment in their season, knocking their confidence and shattering their hopes of challenging for the Premier League title.
Doubts will have crept in after conceding that flurry of Arsenal goals, especially with so much background noise about Villa’s under-lying numbers and the supposed unsustainability of their form.
But results elsewhere went in Villa’s favour in midweek. There is still a big gap to Liverpool in fourth, which means a confident victory against Nottingham Forest – normal service resuming – can heal the pain of the defeat at the Emirates and get it filed away as an anomaly.
Villa have won their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
It is their form at Villa Park that will define their campaign and, with Forest on a three-match losing streak in the Premier League, Saturday’s early kick-off is an opportunity for Ollie Watkins (three goals in his last two) to ensure Villa remain on the same trajectory as they were on a week ago.
Map showing the value of Watkins’ shots against Chelsea and Arsenal
Villa need to get straight back on the horse, remember they are still level on head-to-head meetings with Arsenal, and truly believe that a six-point gap to the top is closable.
Can Arsenal control Bournemouth chaos?
This is a sticky one for Arsenal. Just four days after a brilliant 4-1 victory over Villa put Mikel Arteta’s side firmly in control of the title race, they go to Vitality Stadium to play a side with a recent history of causing carnage against the big teams.
On Tuesday at Stamford Bridge, Bournemouth registered an Expected Goals (xG) figure of 3.0 in a wild 2-2 draw with Chelsea, mimicking the aesthetic of their 4-4 draw with Manchester United earlier in the month.
Timeline of Expected Goals (xG) between Chelsea and Bournemouth
Between those two matches against Chelsea and Man Utd, Andoni Iraola’s side lost 4-1 to Brentford in a game that produced a combined xG of 5.8, almost half of which was Bournemouth’s.
Iraola’s ultra-high-pressing approach, aimed at forcing turnovers in the opposition half, always carries the risk of creating a frantic end-to-end encounter but the likelihood has increased during Bournemouth’s run of poor defensive form.
The Cherries will not change tack for anyone, and so Arsenal must be ready for a fierce and chaotic battle on the south coast.
In theory that works to the Gunners’ advantage (they prefer to attack space rather than try to break down a low block) but at the end of an exhausting run of games you just never know.
Arteta demands control, yet he is unlikely to get it. Instead, his team will need to ride the rhythm of the match and hope that, with chances at both ends, Arsenal will take more of theirs than the team who are winless in their last 10 Premier League games.
Can Leeds beat Man Utd for the first time since 2002?
The last Leeds United team to beat Man Utd in the Premier League contained the likes of Harry Kewell, Mark Viduka and Jonathan Woodgate.
It has been a long couple of decades for Leeds, most of it spent in the wilderness of the EFL Championship.
Beating their fierce rivals at Elland Road for the first time since 2002 would be their greatest Premier League moment since returning to the top flight in 2020.
It is definitely on the cards. In fact, Daniel Farke could hardly have picked a more perfect moment in the clubs’ respective seasons to play this game.
Leeds are unbeaten in six Premier League matches, the third-longest current run in the division after Man City and Liverpool, while Man Utd’s 1-1 draw at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers in midweek was described as “the baddest of the bad” by Gary Neville.
Ironically, Leeds’ form is attributed to Farke moving to a back three, which is the basis of the intense scrutiny on Ruben Amorim’s tactics.
Reverting to the 3-4-3 at home to Wolves, after finally moving to a back four in the victory against Newcastle United four days earlier, has put Amorim’s formation back under the spotlight.
Leeds have failed to score in just one of their last 17 Premier League home matches, Man Utd have conceded at least once in their last 14 Premier League away games.
Any which way you look at it, the stars are aligning for Leeds to end a 23-year wait for a Premier League win in this fixture.
Will Wissa inspire quick start to capitalise on Palace’s fatigue?
Yoane Wissa’s first Premier League goal could be the moment Newcastle’s season changes.
Their difficult first half of 2025/26 is at least partly the result of the Alexander Isak saga that disrupted their pre-season and his replacement, Wissa, getting a long-term injury before he had kicked a ball.
But as the new year begins with Newcastle just four points off fifth place, a likely Champions League spot, Eddie Howe’s team can put the past behind them and solely focus on a strong 2026.
For that to happen, they need to play with fire and fury on Sunday, mimicking how they strode into a 2-0 lead at Burnley within the opening seven minutes.
A similar start should be fruitful given that Crystal Palace are looking very tired, as Oliver Glasner pointed out after his side’s 1-1 draw with Fulham on Thursday.
“It’s not a lack of confidence, we can see the legs are getting fatigued, the mind is getting a little bit fatigued and we know this,” he said.
Wissa is anything but tired, as his sharp reactions at Turf Moor showed.
A goalscoring run from Newcastle’s big summer signing could be transformative for the club, casting aside a poor first half of the campaign and putting Howe’s side back on track.#
Map showing the value of Wissa’s shots for previous club Brentford last season
Will Brighton race out of the blocks and end their winless run?
Away from the title race, the biggest match of the weekend is at the Amex Stadium, where Brighton & Hove Albion simply must take this golden opportunity to end a six-game winless run in the Premier League.
If Fabian Hurzeler’s side fail to defeat a promoted team at home and extend their sequence without a victory to seven matches, their confidence could take a serious hit.
They might even find themselves closer to the bottom three (on points) than the top four and mired in the bottom half, their hopes of European qualification drifting out of sight.
To avoid that fate, Brighton need to start quickly.
Burnley have conceded more first-half goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (18) and went 2-0 down in the opening seven minutes against Newcastle on Tuesday.
If Brighton race out of the blocks, they can overcome the building pressure, allow their shoulders to relax, and finally get back to winning ways.
Will Wolves build on Old Trafford draw and get first win of the season?
Wolves won’t get a better chance than this.
Tuesday’s 1-1 draw at Old Trafford, giving them just their third point of the season and first in 13 matches, must be used as a springboard to better things if Wolves are to avoid the ignominy of getting fewer Premier League points than Derby County’s 11 in 2007/08.
West Ham United were booed off the pitch in midweek despite drawing 2-2 with Brighton, as frustration with the tactical setup under Nuno Espirito Santo begins to create a difficult atmosphere at the London Stadium.
The Hammers are without a victory in eight Premier League matches, their longest winless run since 2011.
It is highly unlikely Wolves will get another home game this season against an opponent in such poor form.
Can Frank avoid another flat 90 minutes?
Tottenham Hotspur’s 0-0 draw at Brentford was in keeping with the football that has defined the first half-season of the Thomas Frank tenure.
He will know that supporters want a more proactive approach – which is why the visit of Sunderland may feel daunting.
Regis Le Bris’s side were resilient in a 0-0 draw at home to Man City on Thursday night and are making a habit of being a nuisance to supposedly stronger teams, taking points from Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Villa already this season.
However, most of those points were gained at the Stadium of Light. Sunderland have scored just four goals in their nine away Premier League games this season, drawing a blank on six occasions.
Their 2-1 win at Chelsea was very much an anomaly.
That is good news for Spurs, although it suggests this will be a stilted, cagey and low-scoring game.
Can Thiago or Barry break open a low-scoring match at Everton?
There may not be many goals in this match. Two teams who prefer not to hold possession, and who prioritise defensive structure over attack, are unlikely to produce an entertaining spectacle to put it mildly, especially not with their respective goalscoring records.
Everton are averaging just 3.1 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, their lowest on record in a single campaign, while only Forest and Wolves have scored fewer goals (20).
Brentford have scored just nine times on their travels and they drew 0-0 in midweek.
If we are to see a winning goal at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, it will probably come down to the battle between the two strikers.
Igor Thiago has scored 11 goals, or 39 per cent of Brentford’s total, while Thierno Barry’s goal on Tuesday made it two from his last three shots in the Premier League.
Can Fulham take advantage of Liverpool’s creativity issues?
Fulham are one of just three clubs Liverpool failed to beat on their way to the 2024/25 Premier League title and Marco Silva’s side won this fixture 3-2 last season.
The hosts will be quietly confident, then, especially after seeing Liverpool draw 0-0 in midweek with a right-back (Jeremie Frimpong) and a central midfielder (Florian Wirtz) starting as the two wingers.
Liverpool are gradually recovering from a run of poor results, but the setback at home to Leeds tells us they still have a way to go – and that absentees have significantly blunted their attack.
Meanwhile, Fulham have won five of their last eight Premier League matches at home; the other three included the remarkable 5-4 defeat to Man City.
Craven Cottage is one of the toughest places to go this season. On recent evidence, Liverpool are not quite ready for the challenge.
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