Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Panthers prediction, pick for NCAAM on Sunday 2/22/26

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Oakland Golden Grizzlies and the Milwaukee Panthers.

San Diego State comes in 18-7 and 12-3 in league play, but it is off a 73-63 loss to Grand Canyon. Colorado State is 16-10 and 7-8, and it just won 91-86 against UNLV with the offense humming. The board is tight at San Diego State -2.5 (-108) with 138.5 and a -142 moneyline; another tight one on this absolutely sparkling Saturday college hoops cad. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Oakland Golden Grizzlies and the Milwaukee Panthers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The Golden Grizzlies are scoring 82.7 per game while shooting 47.3% from the field, and that field-goal clip ranks 62nd nationally, so points do not require a heater. They also assist 15.6 times per game and turn it over only 10.5 times, which is the no empty possessions profile that usually cashes favorite tickets at home. Milwaukee’s defense is the reason the total lives in the 160s, because it allows 79.5 per game on 47.6% shooting and 36.2% from three, plus it sits 324th nationally in points allowed. The Panthers can create chaos with 11.3 forced turnovers per game, but they also surrender flow, ranking 344th in assists allowed and giving up 34.5 rebounds a night. The scoreboard shape points toward the high 70s or low 80s for Oakland if the ball security and the whistle stay intact.

The matchup turns on Brody Robinson because he’s the organizer and the closer in the same body, and 16.8 points with 6.0 assists is the cleanest control profile on the floor. Oakland’s offense looks best when Robinson turns those 15.6 assists into layups and rhythm threes, because Milwaukee’s help has been late all year. Isaac Garrett matters as the shot-volume lever at 14.3 points and 7.2 rebounds, because Milwaukee concedes 34.5 boards and does not end possessions cleanly. Brett White II is the spacing blade at 2.3 made threes per game, and that threatens a Milwaukee defense allowing 36.2% from deep. Milwaukee’s side is built around Amar Augillard as the scorer at 12.9 per game, with Isaiah Dorceus steering at 3.9 assists and Stevie Elam supplying the volume shots at 1.9 threes per game. The way Milwaukee covers is not with stops, it’s with enough creation to keep trading into the last two minutes.

Milwaukee vs. Oakland pick, best bet

Milwaukee cannot defend without fouling or giving up clean looks. The numbers support the door being real: Oakland scores 82.7 per game on 47.3% shooting, while Milwaukee is allowing 79.5 on 47.6% and ranks 324th in points allowed. Oakland also just watched Robert Morris hang 93 while shooting 57.6%, and that kind of defensive looseness can flip into urgency and pace at home. The counterweight is that Oakland’s defense has been a disaster too, sitting 347th in points allowed at 82.1 with 20.1 assists conceded, so separation is not automatic if Milwaukee makes shots. The difference is that Oakland’s offense is the more scalable piece, because 10.5 turnovers and 15.6 assists travel better than streaky shot-making.

The spot leans toward a close, messy game because Oakland’s four-game skid should raise urgency, and urgency usually shows up as rim pressure and free points. That translates to foul risk and late bonus minutes, which is exactly how favorites stretch margins even when the defense is soft. Milwaukee has been living with injuries and rotation churn all year, and that usually shows up as swingy shooting nights and unstable closing possessions, which tightens the playable-to. Market texture also matters: the board shows 95% of moneyline tickets on Oakland, but the spread is only 56% Oakland and 44% Milwaukee, which signals the points are the sharper side of the debate. The total split is basically even at 52% under and 48% over, which screams volatility rather than certainty. That combination keeps this to the number and makes the underdog points the cleaner way to buy chaos.

Best bet: Milwaukee +6.5 (-108) (playable to +5.5). The ticket cashes most often if Oakland’s defense stays leaky at its season baseline, because 82.1 allowed and 20.1 assists conceded are lanes that keep the dog’s offense alive. It also cashes if Milwaukee’s disruption shows up, because forcing 11.3 turnovers is the one way to score without relying on jumpers. One thing that can beat this is an Oakland free-throw finish, because 74.9% at the line plus a whistle-heavy closing stretch can turn a two-possession game into nine points fast.

Predicted score: Oakland 84, Milwaukee 79.

Best bet: Milwaukee +6.5 (-110) at Oakland

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