Week 18 NFL straight up, against the spread, and survivor pool picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 18 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Panthers at Buccaneers (-3): There are weird playoff contingencies in the NFC South. If the Panthers win, they win the NFC South and will be the 4 seed. If the Bucs win, then the two teams will have to wait until Sunday’s Saints-Falcons game to learn who wins the NFC South. A Saints win would clinch it for the Bucs; a Falcons win would clinch it for the Panthers. So let’s all root for that madness, lol.

Unfortunately, I don’t think it’ll come that. The Bucs are in a full-on freefall, having lost four straight and seven of eight, while the Panthers have at least shown glimpses of competency. Give me the team that at least won a couple games in December.

Seahawks (-2.5) at 49ers: I’m a little surprised that the Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites, but it makes a little more sense if Trent Williams (questionable) is unable to play.

I think I like the Niners in this game either way. They have won six straight and their offense is humming, as they are averaging over 40 points per game over their last three games, and over 35 points per game during their six-game streak. The Seahawks have also won six straight, but they were unimpressive in a Week 15 win over the Colts, and let’s be honest — they got lucky as hell in their wild Week 16 win over the Rams.

The Seahawks owned this rivalry for a while, but the Niners have won seven of the last eight. This is just such a weird year in which there are no great teams, and it would be fitting if this no-frills Niners team somehow earned the 1 seed.

Packers at Vikings (-9.5): The Packers are locked into the 7 seed, so they have nothing to play for. The Vikings would probably like to see J.J. McCarthy end the season on a positive note, even if against backups.

Titans at Jaguars (-13): If the Jaguars win, they’re AFC South champs. The Titans have played better down the stretch and don’t seem super motivated to tank having drafted Cam Ward No. 1 overall last April, so this could be a closer game than anticipated, but I expect the Jags to handle their business.

Colts at Texans (-10): The Texans can still win the AFC South with a win over the Colts and a Jaguars loss to the Titans. That’s unlikely. But, they can also clinch the 5 seed with a win, which would mean a favorable Wild Card Round matchup over whatever crappy team wins the AFC North.

Browns at Bengals (-7.5): If you’re still alive in your survivor pool, you’re probably finding slim pickings in the final week of the season, as I am. The Bengals are my best bet, and I don’t love that, even if they have pounded their last two opponents by a combined score of 82-35.

Cowboys (-3.5) at Giants: The Raiders understood the assignment in their Week 17 Tank Bowl loss against the Giants. This dumbass Giants team did not. The Giants are going to try to win this game too, but so will Dak Prescott, who has a chance to lead the NFL in passing yards. 

No stakes Dak Prescott one of the most dominant athletes we ever seen

— They Got Me (@PaulTweetsRIP) December 25, 2025

Dak and the Cowboys will pad their stats all day and prevent the Giants from further wrecking their draft positioning.

Saints at Falcons (-3): As noted above, if the Bucs win, this game will have hilarious playoff implications.

Both of these teams have actually played pretty well lately, with the Saints winning four straight and the Falcons winning three straight. I’ll default to the home team.

Dolphins at Patri*ts (-11.5): The Patri*ts are currently the 2 seed. They can be the 1 seed with a win over the Dolphins and a Broncos loss to the Chargers. They can also drop to the 3 seed with a loss to the Dolphins and a Jags win over the Titans. So they’re playing starters.

I don’t love their vibes heading into the playoffs though, with Stefon Diggs and Christian Barmore both facing alarming allegations this week.

Chiefs (-5.5) at Raiders: The Raiders have been pretty obvious in their attempts to tank for the No. 1 overall pick. They have one game to go to achieve that goal.

Lions at Bears (-3): All week I’ve been prepared to take the Lions in this matchup, on the premise that (a) this is their Super Bowl, (b) they have played spoiler under Dan Campbell in the past (2022 vs. GB), and (c) they have the talent to pull off the upset.

And then I came to my senses this morning, remembering how they completely no-showed against a bad Vikings team last week when it actually did matter. This isn’t their “Super Bowl.” They probably couldn’t care less about this game after their disappointing season. They’re done. Give me the Bears, and I’ll even lay the 3 points.

Jets at Bills (-7.5): Whether the Bills rest starters or not (it’s debatable), this Jets team has been an abomination since they dealt all their good defensive players at the trade deadline, and they were already really bad. They have lost their last four games by a combined score of 153-46.

Commanders at Eagles (-4): The Eagles will be resting starters in this matchup. In case you missed it, we itemized the pros and cons of that decision on Friday, and determined that they’re doing the right thing. 

Part of the logic of resting starters is that they should be able to beat the Commanders anyway, for the following reasons: 

1. The Commanders are awful, just generally.
2. They’re very likely starting QB3 Josh Johnson.
3. They have more than a dozen notable players on IR, plus a bunch of other guys not on IR who are shut down for the season.
4. The guys who will play can’t possibly be fired up about playing backups and should already have their bags packed for Cabo.
5. They have draft positioning on the line, and their owner is not morally opposed to tanking.

Meanwhile, the Eagles’ backups should be sufficiently motivated to play hard and play well, as their season is not over and it’s a chance to show what they can do, but in positive circumstances. They’ll be led by Tanner McKee, who always looks the part of a future NFL starter when he gets chances to play, and at a minimum is way better than Johnson. Give me the Birds to finish out the season with a 12-5 record.

Cardinals at Rams (-7.5): The Rams don’t have much to play for Week 18 after playing their way out of the NFC West title as well as the 1 seed. But, after the Rams lost their last two games, Sean McVay said that he would be playing starters because the team needs to play better before the start of the playoffs. They should easily handle a Cardinals team that has lost 8 straight and 13 of 14.

Chargers at Broncos (-13): The banged-up Chargers are resting their starters ahead of the playoffs, and the Broncos will be playing theirs with the 1 seed on the line.

Ravens (-4.5) at Steelers: The Bucs-Panthers and Ravens-Steelers games this weekend:

Neither the Ravens nor Steelers are good. Toss-up. Give me the Ravens to win, I guess, but I do like getting 4.5 points with the Steelers. If the Steelers win (or lose by four or fewer points), I get a pick against the spread correct. If they lose, I get to laugh at Aaron Rodgers. And maybe both will happen. Pretty easy play for me here.

Survivor pick ☠️

Ugh. I have a chance to survive through the entire regular season, and I have to rely on the Bengals to complete the job.

1. Week 1: Eagles ✅
2. Week 2: Ravens ✅
3. Week 3: Bills ✅
4. Week 4: Broncos ✅
5. Week 5: Lions ✅
6. Week 6: Packers ✅
7. Week 7: Chiefs ✅
8. Week 8: Colts ✅
9. Week 9: Rams ✅
10. Week 10: Seahawks ✅
11. Week 11: Patri*ts ✅
12. Week 12: 49ers ✅
13. Week 13: Chargers ✅
14. Week 14: Buccaneers ☠️, but 🙌
15. Week 15: Jaguars ✅
16. Week 16: Texans ✅
17. Week 17: Cowboys ✅
18. Week 18: Bengals

Disclaimer: I got knocked out of my survivor pool Week 14. Or at least I thought I did when the Bucs lost. However, I caught a huge break, because all 14 people who were still alive in my survivor pool all picked teams that lost, such as the Bucs (like me), Browns, and Chiefs. So, all 14 survived! 🙌

• Picks against the spread: Panthers (+3), 49ers (+2.5), Cowboys (-3.5), Bears (-3), Steelers (+4.5).

• Eagles picks: 10-6

• 2025 season, straight up: 166-87-1 (0.656)
• 2025 season, ATS: 48-53-2 (0.476) 
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)

• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510) 
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500) 
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)

• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)

• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)

• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)

• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)

• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)

• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)

• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)

• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)

• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)

• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)

• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 497-429-24 (0.536)

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