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BYU Cougars football expert previews the Arizona game, makes a score prediction

With the move to a new conference comes the chance to create new rivalries. BYU fits that description, though a true rivalry calls for both sides winning games, and of late it’s been all Cougars.

The Wildcats have lost four straight in the series, including a 41-19 loss in Provo last season. BYU coach Kalani Sitake, in his 10th season at the school, has wins over the last four UA head coaches.

Last year’s BYU squad started 9-0 and just missed out on the Big 12 title game but the current team could be even better. The Cougars are 5-0 and ranked No. 18 in the latest Associated Press Top 25.

To better understand BYU, we got Nick Lee of SB Nation sister site Vanquish the Foe to provide some insight and make a score prediction. Below are his ardent answers to our halfhearted questions:

AZ Desert Swarm: What have been the biggest keys to BYU’s unbeaten start?

Nick Lee: “Kalani Sitake has grown so much as a head coach over the last 2-3 years. This is a testament to sometimes you simply need to be patient and not fire a coach after one mediocre season. His two coordinators (OC Aaron Roderick and DC Jay Hill) have firm control of their sides of the ball. The defense is definitely the star of the show in town. Jay Hill will likely get plenty of looks at open head coaching jobs this offseason. Roderick thrives with a QB who is turnover-averse and good with his legs. Even with a sloppy game vs. West Virginia, this offense has done just enough to complement the solid defense to this point. Plus, let’s be frank, the schedule has not exactly been murderer’s row.”

Bear Bachmeier was at Stanford in the spring and now has led an offense that’s scoring more than 38 points per game. What has made him so effective as a freshman?

“Aaron Roderick is a talented offensive coordinator. After coaching up QBs like Zach Wilson, Jaren Hall and Jake Retzlaff, ‘A-Rod’ seems to have his next guy. This BYU offense is at its best when the QB can make plays with his legs and be smart and efficient with the ball, akin to a point guard in basketball.

Bachmeier has proven to be an excellent ‘point guard.’ He makes good decisions. Doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way too often. Plus he’s built like a Peterbilt semi truck. BYU’s offensive line is a veteran unit that is well-coached. Thus far, this offense has feasted on subpar defenses. Arizona’s defense will definitely be their best test to date.”

The Cougars are rushing for 234 yards per game, and while LJ Martin has been the main producer Bachmeier and others have chipped in well. What’s the secret to the ground success?

“The offensive line had a bit of turnover this year, but honestly it might have been for the better. Isaiah Jatta came over from Colorado and looking like the next draft pick at left tackle. BYU plucked Andrew Gentry from Michigan, who was originally a Jim Harbaugh recruit. He’s at right tackle. Both grade out very well in run blocking. Bruce Mitchell too, at center.

“Several times this season, Bachemeir has turned a 2nd and 10+ into a 3rd and short or a first down by taking off and lowering his shoulder. Martin is also a veteran at this point, in year three. If it weren’t for health issues, I’m confident in saying he’d be considered one of the best running backs in the Big 12 over the last three seasons.

“A big injury was Sione Moa, the backup back. He was an excellent change-of-pace. BYU is still searching for a reliable replacement while he’s on the shelf.”

Arizona hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown this season, the only team in FBS that can say that. How do you think BYU’s receivers will fare against the Wildcats’ defense?

“If any team in the Big 12 (outside of perhaps Texas Tech) can test Arizona’s solid secondary, it’s Chase Roberts and Parker Kingston. Roberts got NFL looks last year and decided to run it back one more year. He’s an excellent route runner and has shown to understand an unspoken language with Bachmeier when things break down. Roberts has made dozens of clutch catches for the Cougars over the years. But as mentioned, this Arizona matchup will definitely be the toughest test of the season thus far. That will be a fun matchup to watch.

“Also, don’t sleep on Utah transfer Carsen Ryan at tight end. He’s made multiple key catches on 3rd downs and is emerging as a red zone favorite. Still, no one in Provo is thinking they will run wild against Arizona. They are hoping to just get enough from their veteran pass-catchers against a talented defense.”

5. BYU is ranked eighth nationally in total defense. Who are the top defensive players for Arizona to be most concerned with?

“Before last week, I would’ve said Jack Kelly. He’s the heartbeat of the defense at linebacker. He’s BYU’s current version of Fred Warner. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder injury against West Virginia and his status for this game is in serious doubt. That would be an enormous blow to what is a really good defense.

Still, his partner-in-crime at linebacker, Isaiah Glasker, has NFL scouts watching No. 16 too. Before the Kelly injury, he and Glasker should’ve been considered perhaps the best linebacker duo in the country.”

“Cornerback Evan Johnson has had a white-hot start to his season. No. 0 picked off East Carolina twice, including a pick six. Plus a video went semi-viral of the Colorado fans chanting vulgarities at him only for him to run up and blow up a screen pass with a huge hit the next play. He will certainly dish out the smack talk and back it up.”

Prediction time. Does Arizona hand BYU its first loss of the season or do the Cougars continue their recent dominance in the series? Give us a score pick.

“Honestly, BYU has shown a few dents in the armor lately. They just haven’t played good enough teams that would take advantage of them. The injury to Jack Kelly is big. Plus, even with the efficient offensive stats the Cougars have, they have struggled mightily in the red zone. This feels like a game where that might come home to roost with the defense being more banged up than usual. Bachmeier is a true freshman. He isn’t perfect. This is a tough spot for him. Arizona 24, BYU 20.”

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