Severe Threat Returns To Deep South This Week
A storm system later this week will bring a threat of severe weather to parts of the South, snow from the Rockies and parts of the Plains to the Great Lakes and strong winds through the Midwest and East this weekend.
This scenario will come in two rounds starting Wednesday night and continuing through Sunday. Let’s first lay out the timing of this, then we’ll go into the details on where the threat of severe weather, heavy rain, snow and wind are in play.
Forecast Timing
Wednesday night: Some thunderstorms may break out in parts of the Southern Plains from Oklahoma to northern Texas. Otherwise, areas of snow will blanket parts of the Rockies and Mountain West.
Thursday: Rain will spread as far north as the western Great Lakes. Thunderstorms may flare up from parts of eastern Texas into into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Some snow will continue in the Rockies.
Friday: Snow may spread from the central and southern Rockies into parts of the Plains. Thunderstorms may become more numerous in parts of the South, from Texas to the Tennessee Valley. Some rain showers will spread as far north as upstate New York and New England.
Saturday: Snow is possible in parts of the western Great Lakes while more soaking rain spreads into the East as far north as parts of New England and upstate New York. Strong winds are possible in much of the Midwest and parts of the South. Thunderstorms may linger in parts of the Southeast ahead of the cold front.
Sunday: Wind will be likely be the biggest concern in the Midwest and Northeast. Bands of rain may linger in eastern New England in the morning. Wrap-around snow may linger from parts of the eastern Great Lakes to upstate New York and northern New England.
(MAPS: Daily US Forecast Rain, Snow Areas)
Saturday Afternoon’s Forecast
(The blue arrows shows where strong winds are possible Saturday afternoon.)
Potential Impacts
Severe Threat
For now, we expect the threat of strong thunderstorm winds, hail or tornadoes to be low both Wednesday night in the Plains and Thursday from Texas to the Ozarks.
The severe threat Friday in the lower Mississippi Valley may be a step higher, in the area shown in the map below.
That more elevated threat could last into Friday night or early Saturday in other parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley.
Snow, Heavy Rain
Given the lack of cold air in place, even for early January, this system doesn’t look like a major snowmaker. Generally light to moderate snowfall is expected in the central High Plains, upper Midwest and parts of the eastern Great Lakes and northern New England.
Locally heavy rain is most likely Friday into early Saturday in the Tennessee Valley Friday and Friday night, where local flash flooding is possible.
Wind, Colder Air
While strong wind gusts are possible in parts of the central and eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday, the biggest concern for high winds will be this weekend.
Saturday, strong winds with gusts occasionally over 40 mph, are possible throughout the Plains, Midwest, and increasingly the East as low pressure strengthens.
These strong winds will continue in the Midwest and East Sunday.
These wind gusts could be strong enough to down tree limbs and knock out power for some. In areas of snowfall, these winds could lead to reduced visibility and challenging driving conditions.
Some colder air will be dragged behind the storm into the Midwest, South and East, but it won’t be bitterly cold, nor will it last long.
(MAPS: 10-Day US Forecast Highs/Lows)
Forecast Highs Into This Weekend
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
