Halfway through the season, the Winnipeg Jets are on track to make the wrong kind of history.
Never has a reigning Presidents’ Trophy winner finished the following season with the NHL’s worst record. But the Jets, who have lost 10 in a row (0-6-4) and 13-of-14 (1-9-4), could become the first if they do not quickly get their act together. (Winnipeg would be the fifth reigning Presidents’ Trophy winner to miss the playoffs.)
“I think everyone would feel like there’s a level of responsibility here that we need to find a way to be better,” Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff told reporters earlier this week. “Your record is your record, and all you can do is control what’s in front of you.”
The Jets’ nonexistent scoring depth has been a contributing factor in their downward spiral. They have a league-low four players — Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi and Josh Morrissey — who average at least 0.5 points per game. That is down from seven last season, and only one of those players (Nikolaj Ehlers) left the Jets in the off-season.
Connor and Scheifele have carried the offence, outscoring opponents 42-33 when sharing the ice at five-on-five this season. When Connor and Scheifele are both off the ice, the Jets have been outscored 51-39.
Despite the Jets’ desperate need for secondary scoring, coach Scott Arniel has resisted splitting up his top two forwards. It is somewhat understandable: Connor and Scheifele, who have combined for 40 goals and 97 points this season, have played together for nearly 3,400 minutes at five-on-five since the start of the 2021-22 season. Winnipeg has outscored opponents 184-163 during those minutes.
“We’ve talked about it,” Arniel told reporters Wednesday. “It’s hard when you have that chemistry and they have the puck the whole time. I don’t know if we’re in a position to split them up and (hope that) they create chemistry with the next guys they’re playing with.”
But at this critical point, what do the Jets have to lose? No other forward combination has been responsible for more than four goals for the Jets at five-on-five.
Winnipeg’s second line, which has been anchored by Jonathan Toews, has been ineffective in its various forms this season. The Jets have a minus-nine goal differential and minus-44 scoring-chance differential during Toews’ minutes at five-on-five.
“It’s a tough assessment, in some respects,” Cheveldayoff told reporters, citing Toews’ long layoff from playing. “For him to come into a year where the frequency of games doesn’t give you as much opportunity to recover after not playing for two years (has been difficult). But (Toews) is one of the hardest workers in the group.”
On Tuesday, Arniel swapped Vilardi for Alex Iafallo on the top line, dropping Vilardi to the second line with Toews and Cole Perfetti. The second line was responsible for the Jets’ first goal against the Vegas Golden Knights, but the Connor-Scheifele-Iafallo line did not generate much offence and was out-chanced 6-3 at five-on-five. (Arniel told reporters that he plans to use the same top six against the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday.)
The Jets have played close to 110 minutes at five-on-five this season with either Connor or Scheifele on the ice without the other. While the sample is small, the results are encouraging. Winnipeg has generated 52.2 per cent of the expected goals, compared to 52.6 per cent when Connor and Scheifele are together. The goals are 6-2 in the Jets’ favour. That suggests that a breakup between Connor and Scheifele would not completely tank Winnipeg’s offence.
Because Connor and Scheifele have spent so little time apart, it is difficult to find examples of potential new combinations that could work. But both players are skilled enough to lead their own lines. Scheifele is one of the best possession-driving forwards in the league, averaging 26 plays per game that push the puck up ice (10th at the position). Connor is not far behind him at 17th with 22.5 possession-driving plays per game.
Over the course of the Jets’ losing streak, their playoff chances have plummeted from 32.9 per cent to 4.2 per cent. Arniel has hesitated to separate his star forwards, but time is running out on the Jets’ season.
“We’re getting (really) close to everything (being) on the table,” Arniel told reporters.
