Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are in a near pick’em with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wild-card game. Jason Miller / Getty Images
The Athletic has live coverage of Rams vs. Panthers and Packers vs. Bears from the NFL playoffs wild-card round.
Welcome to one of the most unpredictable, wide-open wild-card weeks we have had in years. Some of the usual suspects are here, but the AFC has no clear favorites in this round, and two of the three NFC games are close, too.
Nonetheless, we have some instances of value on the betting board when looking at game spreads and totals.
I have developed an NFL Projection Model that takes play-by-play data to map out potential game outcomes for each team in the NFL. These projections are adjusted for opponent and garbage time before spitting out an expected points-per-game for the offense and defense.
From there, I’m able to plug these values into the model and get an expected spread and total for each game of the NFL season. Below, you’ll find those projections compared against the odds on BetMGM.
The model is flipped from the odds for Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, favoring the Jags by a point, instead of the Bills, and it’s pulling the under compared to BetMGM’s total. It’s also predicting the Carolina Panthers to cover vs. the Los Angeles Rams and the Chicago Bears to cover vs. the Green Bay Packers.
