Men’s college basketball Top 25: Unbeaten Vanderbilt, Nebraska are bona fide top-10 teams – The Athletic
Vanderbilt and Nebraska, both unranked in the preseason, have been creeping up the Top 25 as they continue to remain undefeated.
Neither is a tease. Both are for real, and it’s time to reevaluate where they belong after last week.
Nebraska (16-0, 5-0 Big Ten) won back-to-back road games against top-half Big Ten teams (Indiana and Penn State) and now has one of the best resumes in the sport, ranking No. 1 in wins above bubble and No. 2 in strength of record.
Vanderbilt (16-0, 3-0 SEC) got its first ranked win (over No. 13 Alabama) and continues to be a metrics darling, ranking No. 5 at KenPom, No. 3 at Torvik and No. 7 at Evan Miya.
Last week, I moved Vandy into the top 10 and had Nebraska at No. 11. It’s time to course correct on both. I have Vandy at No. 6 and moved Nebraska to No. 9.
It’s also time to consider mid-majors. I’ve been hesitant to rank them this season because their schedule strengths do not come close to the high-majors. That is not their fault — it’s mostly high-majors refusing to play them — but those teams need to win by big margins to justify consideration.
Both Saint Louis and Utah State have hit the mark.
The Billikens (15-1, 3-0 Atlantic 10) would be undefeated if not for a freaky end-of-game scenario against Stanford — fouling up 3 with 4.3 seconds left and losing on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer — and Utah State (14-1, 5-0 Mountain West) is dominating its conference, outscoring league opponents by 39 points per 100 possessions.
Also worthy of explanation this week is the inclusion of Kansas and SMU. Using Torvik’s team sheets, Kansas (11-5, 1-2 Big 12), despite Saturday’s loss to West Virginia, has an average resume ranking of 23.7 and an average quality ranking of 21.3. There are only 17 teams that rank in the top 25 in both. The other 16 are inside my top 18. SMU (12-4, 1-2 ACC) lost road games last week to Clemson and Duke, both teams in my top 25. That’s bad scheduling luck. I believe in the Mustangs, and because they kept both games close, there’s no reason to drop them.
More below on Arizona, Iowa State, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Houston, Illinois and Saint Louis.
RankTeamRecordPrev
1
16-0
2
2
16-0
3
3
14-1
1
4
16-1
4
5
15-1
5
6
16-0
10
7
17-1
6
8
15-1
7
9
16-0
11
10
15-1
8
11
15-1
9
12
14-2
12
13
13-3
15
14
12-4
16
15
14-2
17
16
11-5
13
17
12-4
14
18
14-2
22
19
11-5
NR
20
14-3
NR
21
14-1
NR
22
15-1
NR
23
12-4
20
24
11-5
21
25
12-4
24
Dropped out: Tennessee, Iowa, Georgia, Villanova
Keeping an eye on: Texas A&M, Miami, St. John’s, Wisconsin, Seton Hall
1. Arizona (16-0, 3-0 Big 12)
Last week: Beat Kansas State 101-76 and TCU 86-73
Arizona leads all high-major teams with 10.3 points per game off post-ups, per Synergy. The Wildcats get a lot of their easy buckets off duck-ins:
The bigs are excellent at creating the space, and Arizona guards also have faith that if they throw it to a spot, the bigs will catch the ball:
And those duck-ins also create driving lanes for teammates, wiping out help defenders:
The Wildcats are one of the most unselfish teams in the country, with no one seeming to care who takes the shot. That’s why they have five players averaging double figures, seven above 8.8 points per game and have yet to score less than a point per possession in any game. That kind of offensive consistency, combined with a dominant defense, has allowed Arizona to win 11 straight games by double digits. While Michigan still ranks No. 1 in every quality-based metric, Arizona has been the most consistent team in the country.
2. Iowa State (16-0, 3-0 Big 12)
Last week: Beat Baylor 70-60 and Oklahoma State 83-71
Tamin Lipsey is on pace to shatter the NCAA’s assist-to-turnover ratio, which the NCAA has been tracking since 2008. Lipsey is currently at 7.1 (71 assists and 10 turnovers), which is far ahead of Chattanooga’s Garrison Keeslar, who had a 5.62 assist-to-turnover ratio last season.
Lipsey will set the record if he can keep up the pace he has had in high-major games, where he has 34 assists and six turnovers, a 5.67 rate.
The most impressive aspect of Lipsey’s start to the season: Among his 10 turnovers, only four have been on passes. Think of all the passes a point guard throws every game, and Lipsey has completed every one but four.
3. Michigan (14-1, 4-1 Big Ten)
Last week: Beat Penn State 74-72, lost to Wisconsin 91-88
Coach Dusty May said after the Wisconsin loss that it has been four games since Michigan has played really well and with competitive spirit, but there was also some bad shot-variance luck. Wisconsin’s Aleksas Bieliauskas was 8-of-27 from 3 coming in and made 5-of-10 against the Wolverines, including four during Wisconsin’s streak of seven straight made 3s to start the second half.
Wisconsin opened the half trying to pick on Aday Mara in drop coverage:
The first four 3s in the half all involved Mara. Then one came against a zone, and two others took advantage of Michigan’s switching scheme. Once the Badgers got a big on the perimeter, their spacing made it so Michigan could fix the mismatches.
Nick Boyd’s penetration also led to some overhelping:
Wisconsin’s 15 3s were the most May’s defense has allowed in his two years at Michigan. Michigan still has the No. 1 defense in college basketball, and the loss could be the motivator to get back to preparing and competing at late November/early December levels. Wisconsin provided a blueprint, but still needed an incredible shooting game to pull off the upset.
6. Vanderbilt (16-0, 3-0 SEC)
Last week: Beat No. 13 Alabama 96-90 and LSU 84-73
Vanderbilt has had only 4.7 percent of its 2-point attempts blocked this season, the lowest block rate for any offense in college basketball. This is impressive for a team with three small guards (Tyler Tanner, Duke Miles and Frankie Collins) who lead the team in usage rate.
Tanner, who is listed at 6-foot, deserves the most credit for Vandy’s low block rate. Tanner has attempted 112 2s this season and has had only two of them blocked, per Synergy’s tracking.
Tanner is one of nine high-major point guards averaging at least seven points per game on shots at the rim, per Synergy, and to put in context how remarkable it is that he’s only had two shots blocked, here’s how he compares to the others:
Shots blockedFG% at rim
Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt
2
70.4
Acaden Lewis, Villanova
5
69.2
Kayden Mingo, Penn State
6
67.1
Labaron Philon, Alabama
9
70.6
Markus Burton, Notre Dame
12
61
Nigel James, Marquette
13
50.4
Terrence Brown, Utah
19
57.2
Nick Boyd, Wisconsin
22
58.6
PJ Haggerty, K-State
23
64.3
Tanner pulls this off with one of the best finishing packages in the country. He can get finger rolls over shot blockers:
The Vandy guards are excellent at coming to a stop and then getting to their turnaround jumper:
Tanner also has awesome footwork and the ability to shoot with his off hand:
And the float game is pretty good too:
8. Houston (15-1, 3-0 Big 12)
Last week: Beat No. 14 Texas Tech 69-65 and Baylor 77-55
With two point guards this season, Houston has its lowest turnover rate (13.2) ever under Kelvin Sampson and is improving as the season progresses. The Coogs have just a 9.9 turnover rate in Big 12 play.
Sampson’s teams have always thrived at getting more shots than the opponent, and this team has the biggest gap between defensive turnover rate and offensive turnover rate, with a plus-10.4 difference between the two.
TO rate advantage
Houston
10.4
McNeese State
9.8
Iowa State
9.5
High Point
8.7
Dayton
8.1
Iowa State
7.1
Bradley
6.8
Seton Hall
6.6
NC State
6
Penn State
5.9
13. Illinois (13-3, 4-1 Big Ten)
Last week: Beat Rutgers 81-55 and No. 19 Iowa 75-69
The Illini faced two of the hottest guards in the country this week in Rutgers’ Tariq Francis and Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz. Francis came in averaging 25 points in his previous four games and finished with just 6 points on 3-of-10 shooting against the Illini.
Stirtz has performed at All-America levels most of the season and his efficiency is usually what propels the Hawkeyes. On Sunday, Stirtz struggled to shake free of Illinois’ Kylan Boswell, who can wipe out screens with his strength:
Stirtz finished with 12 points on 5-of-17 shooting and was only able to get off four shots when guarded by Boswell. Iowa is now 12-0 in games when Stirtz finishes with an offensive rating over 100 and 0-4 when he finishes under.
22. Saint Louis (15-1, 3-0 Atlantic 10)
Last week: Beat VCU 71-62 and La Salle 84-72
The Billikens rank No. 1 in average 2-point distance per KenPom, meaning their average 2-point shot is closer to the basket than anyone else. It’s a result of coach Josh Schertz’s process. In the five seasons KenPom has that stat tracked, Schertz’s teams have ranked 13th, third, first, 10th and first. I asked Schertz what he thinks the key is to his teams consistently getting such close 2s.
“I think having a big like Robbie (Avila). There’s two types of spacing in basketball with bigs: There is horizontal spacing and there’s vertical spacing. Robbie spaces the floor horizontally, which opens lanes up for cutting and driving and then having a big that can pass like that, you get a lot of no-dribble layups. Then I think our pace playing fast. Usually we’re pretty high up in tempo (seventh in fastest offensive possessions), and so getting the ball down the floor and then hunting easy baskets. I think all those things probably factor in. We’re trying to get rim shots, free throws and spot threes. And the whole goal for us is no-dribble layups. How many no-dribble layups can we get per game? And we hunt those through transition and through the way we play.”
Schertz’s approach has worked quite well, especially with Avila.
