In the first month of the 2025-26 season, the Edmonton Oilers’ top-four defencemen were struggling. Evan Bouchard’s October five-on-five goal share (31 percent) had him under fire from the fan base and may have cost him stronger consideration for the Canadian Olympic team. Mattias Ekholm, Bouchard’s partner, wasn’t much better (33 percent goal share), and Darnell Nurse was running at 47 percent.
Since Nov. 1, Bouchard (59 percent) and Ekholm (57 percent) have spiked in a big way. Meanwhile, Nurse’s regression went in the opposite direction. Nurse’s five-on-five goal share since the beginning of November is 42 percent.
The Oilers are a younger team in important areas this season, and are unlikely to add several pieces at the deadline due to cap concerns and lack of tradeable assets.
Finding a way for Nurse to thrive is going to be key for coach Kris Knoblauch and his staff. What’s the problem, and how can it be fixed?
Find a quality partner
Oilers fans are a house divided when it comes to Nurse. The massive contract has always been an issue, and there are those who believe he should play a lesser role (third pair). However, a large faction believes the organization merely needs to provide the veteran with a quality partner and wait for good things to happen. It makes sense in that he is often paired with an inexperienced or undersized tandem partner, but does Nurse thrive when playing defence with a universally well-regarded player?
Beginning in 2021-22 and running for three seasons, veteran Cody Ceci was Nurse’s partner. The duo played 2,576 minutes together, with a 51 percent goal share five-on-five (52 percent expected) for the Oilers. The pairing had success away from Connor McDavid (52 percent goal share, 50 percent expected) in those seasons. It was a solid tandem based on quality of competition in those years. Nurse played about 35 percent of his time versus elites in those seasons, and over 40 percent in 2021-22.
Ceci is best described as a shutdown defenceman, and when he left, the prevailing wisdom around Nurse involved getting a puck mover or plus passer as his defensive partner. Here’s a look at the last three seasons (including this one) and Nurse’s success level with all defensive partners over 200 minutes.
PartnerMins w NurseGoal PctX-Goal Pct
Troy Stecher
583
56
50
Brett Kulak
489
39
54
Jake Walman
316
58
50
Alec Regula
280
26
54
Evan Bouchard
274
60
62
Mattias Ekholm
186
55
63
Vincent Desharnais
182
30
49
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Most of the defencemen who spent time with Nurse in the last three years are quality passers, transporters of the puck, or both. It’s also true that Nurse has success with these player-types, and the Oilers have helped him since fading defence-first players like Ceci, Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais in recent seasons.
The number that jumps off the page is Nurse and Alec Regula’s actual goal share, all compiled this season (his expected share includes all three years). It’s a tough ask for Regula to play elite minutes, while still a rookie, a season after missing an entire year due to injury. It’s also a big ask of Nurse to find success with an inexperienced partner, adjusting to the speed of the NHL, and against top-level NHL players.
Beyond that, Nurse has done well with the group of defenders deployed with him. Regrettably, Troy Stecher was lost to waivers earlier this season. He was a handy player to have around because of his ability to play with Nurse.
The elevator shaft
Nurse, away from Regula, is delivering 51 percent of the five-on-five goals this season. The problem with using that as a line in the sand for performance level is the gap between playing with McDavid and or Leon Draisaitl, and playing with the third and fourth lines. Nurse on the bottom two lines, even taking away the Regula minutes, is the owner of a 27 percent goal share (42 expected). Here’s a look at the Oilers’ top-four defence this year, away from 97 and 29, and excluding Regula.
PlayerMinsGoal PctX-Goal Pct
186
35
49
237
27
42
162
27
44
119
14
48
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
No one thrives. The organization’s third and fourth lines are so poor overall that no one can succeed with them, even the top of Edmonton’s defensive depth chart.
Here’s a look at GA-60 five-on-five when playing with the third and fourth lines. That’s a good way to see how each of Edmonton’s regular defencemen has performed in some of the most difficult minutes available. As in the previous look, McDavid, Draisaitl and Regula are excluded from the numbers.
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
No one survives multiple shifts playing with the third and fourth lines. In fact, Nurse fares better in GA-60 than the other top-four defencemen so far this season. That’s small consolation for Nurse, who plays 55 percent of his time with McDavid and Draisaitl (25-22 goals) and gives it all back and more during the rest of his five-on-five minutes (5-18 goals).
Meanwhile, Ekholm plays 76 percent of his minutes on the top two lines (34-28) and 24 percent with the depth lines (6-11 goals). Playing alongside Bouchard doesn’t hurt. Still, the bottom-six forwards are an elevator shaft of goal share for Ekholm, too.
Bottom line
Placed with a puck-moving and passing defender, Nurse has performed well for Edmonton at five-on-five. When playing defence in front of the McDavid line, the Oilers are 16-11 goals. His overall numbers, when paired with Bouchard, Ekholm, Jake Walman and the now departed (to the Toronto Maple Leafs) Stecher, are quality.
Against elites, he has played 91 minutes with McDavid, with a 52 percent possession number (Dangerous Fenwick) and is 5-3 goals.
Nurse has played 170 minutes without the captain while facing elites, owns a 43 percent Fenwick and is 7-9 goals, via Puck IQ. Meanwhile, Ekholm has played 126 minutes versus elites without McDavid. Ekholm’s possession number (48 percent Fenwick) and 3-3 goals are superior to Nurse’s, but Ekholm’s partner is Bouchard and Nurse’s partners have been a revolving door of lesser lights and include Regula.
The Nurse problem is a third- and fourth-line problem, and at some level a Regula problem. That’s something management and the coaching staff need to address. Now.
