Part 2 of a two-part series.
When the Heat gave Bam Adebayo a three-year, $166 million max extension in the summer of 2024, it was indisputably fair market value for a player who is considered not only one of the league’s best and most versatile defenders, but also a skilled rebounder, an impeccable leader and a tireless worker who had willed himself to become a 20 point per game scorer.
But Adebayo’s offensive game has regressed since the ink dried on that deal — with significant dips in his scoring average (19.3 to 16.4) and shooting percentage (52.1 to 44.6) – and the issue now is whether that max extension, which kicks in next season and runs through 2028-29, will end up being good value after all.
One veteran NBA executive, requesting anonymity, said Monday that Adebayo’s new max deal — which will pay him between $49 million and $51 million next season with 10% raises the following two seasons — will no longer be considered an attractive contract “if he keeps this trend on offense.”
That’s the reality, the executive said, even while taking into account how “good he is on defense.”
But the executive pointed out that if the Heat ever changed its mind and decided to trade Adebayo, there would be decent offers, provided his offensive game doesn’t further diminish.
“People thought the Rudy Gobert super max was an eyesore and Utah got a ton from Minnesota” for him, the executive said, referring to a July 2022 trade that was made one year into Gobert’s five-year, $205 million extension.
Gobert had been named Defensive Player of the Year three times before Utah traded him to Minnesota in a package that netted the Jazz five players, four first-round picks and a pick swap.
Adebayo has never been named Defensive Player of the Year and almost assuredly wouldn’t attract a package as rich, considering the treasure trove of assets that Minnesota gave up in the Gobert trade was widely criticized at the time.
At the moment, Adebayo’s salary next season would stand tied for 17th among all players, with the precise number to be determined when the NBA sets its 2026-27 salary cap. For now, Spotrac lists it at $49.8 million, though it could end up slightly higher.
Only one of the 16 players due to make more than Adebayo next season is averaging fewer points — the 76ers’ Paul George, who entered the week narrowly behind Adebayo’s 16.4 points per game.
Adebayo has never been on an All-NBA first, second or third team. Only one of the 16 players due to be paid more than him next season — Denver’s Jamal Murray — also has never been named All NBA.
If this season is a true reflection of his offense game, then “he’s not really a max player anymore,” an Eastern Conference scout said. “It’s amazing what’s happened with him. The new offensive system hasn’t done him any justice. His offense has regressed. He’s not getting as many assists [2.6 to 4.3 last season]. He’s better in a pick-and-roll-oriented system than what they’re running now.”
So will the three years of the max extension end up making it a bad deal?
“If you’re talking about what we’re seeing is permanent — and this is who he is offensively — I’m not going to say it’s bad value, but it’s not a steal,” said Meadowlark Media and former ESPN NBA commentator Amin Elhassan, who closely follows the Heat and worked for almost a decade in basketball operations and scouting for the Hawks, Knicks and Suns.
“The defensive impact is massive and cannot be understated. They are an elite defense again this year due largely to him and his versatility.”
With the offensive decline, “the volume is not as big a deal as efficiency,” he said. “A big reason [for that decline] is he’s taking more shots away from the rim. That makes his job a little bit more difficult to see the efficiency we are used to seeing. And the Heat doesn’t have a real bona fide set-the-table guy for them. Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell can do it a little bit.
“Not only is he taking shots further away from a high-efficiency zone, but he doesn’t have anyone to make his life easier. Those are the things contributing. I don’t think this is representative of his offensive talent. I think it’s representative of a new system, a new shot diet and a lack of a bona fide playmaker.”
But Elhassan acknowledged that if Adebayo doesn’t regain his previous offensive form, “and if this is who he is and this [drop-off] is not because of those factors I mentioned, it gets more difficult to team-build around that [salary]… even with the defense that he provides.”
The good news, Elhassan said, is the annual “cap escalation outpaces his salary. The worst part of it is next year,” when a salary projected around $50 million would be about 30% of the projected $166 million cap and slightly below 25% of what is expected to be a $202 million luxury tax threshold.
This season, Adebayo’s $37.1 million salary is tied for 39th in the league. Excluding injured stars Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, only two players with higher salaries than Adebayo are averaging fewer points: the Knicks’ OG Anunoby, who — like Adebayo, is considered one of the best defenders among those 39 players — and George.
Regarding whether Adebayo is even a No. 2 scorer on a very good team at this point, Elhassan said: “I always questioned [that]. There was a point where we said he needs to take a leap, but there’s almost a voraciousness that 25 point-per-game scorers have. It’s a maniacal, ‘I want the ball.’ I always felt Bam didn’t have that. Evan Mobley doesn’t have it. Rasheed Wallace didn’t have it. That particular switch of ‘I want the ball and I need to score in large amounts.’
“To me, he’s more comfortable to facilitate and ‘I’ll get mine [offense] in mistmatches.’ You need two other guys more dynamic and more scoring-oriented with him. I don’t know if Tyler Herro or Norman Powell are good enough” in that regard to make this a very good team.
Elhassan said he’s not surprised that some of the fan base has soured on the Heat’s captain, though he doesn’t blame Adebayo or the fans for that.
“The whole idea was this guy was supposed to be the guy,” Elhassan said. “Jimmy [Butler] said he’s our best player. You’ve been sold that this guy was going to be the best player for the franchise and the driving engine for success. And to know now, to see now, that he’s a really good complementary piece and foundational piece defensively [but perhaps not more], that’s harder to quantify and appreciate.
“As opposed to a guy who hits the game-winner; that’s easy to appreciate” for the average fan.
The Heat, to this point, reportedly has shown no willingness to entertain trades involving Adebayo.
“If he is part of a deal for a mythical whale, a couple years ago there’s no way you do it,” Elhassan said. “Maybe now that’s not the stance you take.”
In Adebayo’s defense, he remains a top 12 center in numerous areas: Among only centers, he entered the week ninth in scoring, 10th in rebounds (9.7 per game), 10th in assists (2.6), 10th in steals (0.9) and 12th in defensive field goal percentage against at 43.7, per NBA.com.
But ESPN’s complicated efficiency formula ranks him only the 129th most efficient player in the league this season, between Andrew Nembhard and Jaxson Hayes.
“He can be better than this,” Elhassan said. “But the 25-a-night Bam does not exist.”
Here’s part 1 of my Adebayo series.
This story was originally published January 13, 2026 at 10:10 AM.
Barry Jackson
Miami Herald
Barry Jackson has written for the Miami Herald since 1986 and has written the Florida Sports Buzz column since 2002.
