In military deterrence lingo, what we’re witnessing in Greenland is sometimes referred to as the “glass plate” or the “tripwire.”
It’s a metaphor for breaking the glass — or crossing the threshold — between peace and war.
Denmark announced Wednesday that it is bolstering its troop, naval and air presence in the Arctic island in conjunction with NATO allies.
The Danish Defence Ministry says it plans to deploy additional military capabilities and units for exercises that could include “guarding critical infrastructure, providing assistance to local authorities in Greenland, including the police.”
On paper, this token force is being deployed to bolster the island’s security in response to U.S. complaints. What is extraordinary, perhaps even unprecedented, is that it serves as message more to the U.S. than it does to Russia or China.
Tripwires are the kind of forces that NATO has deployed in Eastern Europe, including the Baltics where Canada leads the Latvia contingent, to counter any further aggression by Moscow.
Members of the Danish armed forces are seeing conducting an exercise in Greenland last year. A Department of National Defence spokesperson says Canada at the moment is not taking part in new military operations on the island. (Guglielmo Mangiapane/Reuters)
To be clear: The Danish military buildup in Greenland is not a NATO mission — something that would require the sign-off of all 32 member nations, including the United States.
But a handful of NATO allies, including Germany and Sweden, have signalled they’re willing to send troops to Greenland as part of a bolstered presence.
The Danes are currently planning to host a military exercise in the region that could include Canadians, but a spokesperson for Defence Minister David McGuinty said no decision has been made.
“As of this moment, the Canadian Armed Forces are not initiating any new operations in Greenland,” said Maya Ouferhat, McGuinty’s press secretary, in a statement.
The political significance of joining the Danish initiative would be staggering, said a defence expert.
“Members of the alliance are putting together a tripwire to try to deter Donald Trump, and what that tells you is we are very much in unprecedented times where we could very much be facing tomorrow, next week, next month American troops pointing their guns at Danish troops,” said Steve Saideman, a political scientist who holds the Paterson Chair in International Affairs at Carleton University.
“It’s to deter the United States from engaging in aggression. That’s the only reason why they’d be there. And that sends a strong signal about the intense distrust and fear that these countries have of a country that’s supposed to be their protector.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said earlier this week that allies are looking at ways of boosting Arctic security.
‘Fundamental disagreement’
In Washington on Wednesday, Denmark’s foreign minister said a “fundamental disagreement” remains with U.S. President Donald Trump over the future of the island. High-level talks involving the Danes and U.S. Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio failed to resolve the crisis.
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Denmark’s top diplomat, said the meeting was “frank but also constructive.” The delegation made it clear that Denmark and Greenland firmly reject the Trump administration’s demand for full control of the semiautonomous island.
Denmark has warned that any move against Greenland would mean the end of NATO.
Saideman said he wonders if the decades-old Western military alliance isn’t already mortally wounded.
Greenland’s Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt and Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen met with U.S. officials in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. (Ritzau Scanpix/AFP/Getty Images)
“The whole idea of NATO is deterrence created by the credibility of the American willingness to defend its allies,” Saideman said.
“It was never about Denmark’s willingness to defend the United States or Canada’s willingness to defend Poland. It’s always been about the American commitment to defend its allies, and if the United States is actually threatening some of its allies, including the one that sacrificed the most per capita in Afghanistan outside of Estonia, it raises huge questions about whether the United States would be willing to sacrifice Americans for the defence of Latvia, Lithuania.”
The other dimension Saideman said he wonders about is whether the U.S. military would follow orders to attack a NATO ally.
The attack on Venezuela, which many defence analysts believe has emboldened the Trump administration, was much more straightforward than any possible action against Danish territory.
“Venezuela is not Greenland,” said Sean Maloney, a professor of history at the Royal Military College of Canada in Kingston.
Conducting an operation against a professionally trained ally in a harsh environment far from U.S. territory would be tough and require planning.
WATCH | Danish delegation meets White House officials:
Danish minister says U.S. must respect ‘red lines’ when it comes to Greenland
Following a White House meeting with U.S. Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said Washington had not budged on its position that it must acquire Greenland. When asked by a reporter about the emotion of the moment, Rasmussen, who spoke alongside his Greenlandic counterpart Vivian Motzfeldt, said it is ‘very emotional for all of us.’
“The logistics issues with Greenland are immense,” said Maloney, who added that he wonders whether the U.S. would choose to simply fly more troops and equipment into its existing base — or whether it would go after other parts of the island, including population centres and mines.
“What this looks like is anybody’s guess,” said Maloney.
That’s where the notion of the tripwire force comes into play. The presence of Danish and allied troops raises the stakes and could conceivably force the U.S. to commit additional forces.
Much like Russia’s months-long buildup on the Ukrainian border in late 2021 and early 2022 and more recently the assembly of the U.S. task force off Venezuela, Maloney said what we should watch for is the movement of U.S. logistics forces.
Armies and military operations don’t appear out of thin air.
“There’s a whole bunch of things that will be seen by the open-source intelligence community” if the U.S. starts a mobilization, said Maloney.
