Snow Possible Across Southeast This Weekend
Chances are growing that a quick-hitting wintry system will sweep through the South this weekend, but despite the social media hype, it probably won’t be a big winter storm.
While the details remain uncertain, snow chances have increased for parts of the South. Here’s the latest forecast:
What You Should Know:
– There is a growing chance of some lighter snow somewhere in the South on Sunday
– A storm system is likely to sweep through the Southeast beginning late Saturday and will last until at least Sunday.
– New Today: Most areas outside of the Appalachians will see coversational flurries to up to 1 inch. This is not expected to be a widely disruptive snowstorm. There is an outside shot that some communities may see more than 2 inches
– Regardless of snowfall, cold air is expected across the South. Be prepared to protect your pipes, plants and pets
– This is a very fluid, low-confidence forecast
– You should check back multiple times a day to see how this forecast changes if snowfall could impact your plans, business or safety
Deeper Dive: What’s Going On
A disturbance, or even a full-fledged low pressure system, is likely to develop in the northeastern Gulf by late Saturday, then move northeastward along the Southeast coast on Sunday. This will lead to precipitation, rain or otherwise, on Sunday.
Models latched onto this idea late Tuesday and it is now a longer-lasting trend in the models. We need to keep watching these model trends as the longer they stick around, the more likely a storm is.
As you can see on the graphic below, there is a lot of wiggle room in this forecast between paltry snowfall to some of the more bonkers solutions like the GFS.
What remains uncertain is how strong that system will be as it cuts across the Coastal Plain. A stronger storm system will be able to attract more cold air and moisture to it, while a weaker disturbance may not be able to bring the cold air and moisture together to bring the chance of snow.
From the coastal Carolinas, it is also somewhat uncertain how much precipitation reaches the East Coast. If the storm stays closer to the East Coast, heavier snow could spread to the Northeast.
The Ingredients
The one thing we do have that is typically lacking from southern events is plentiful cold air. Frequent rounds of cold air enhance the chance of precipitation falling as anything but rain as the ground stays colder longer.
There will be two surges of cold air that will sweep through the Southeast in the coming days. The first one may even cause some iguana thunder on Friday.
A fresh surge of frigid air will arrive in the South by late Saturday into Sunday.
While this cold air may not penetrate as far south, it will bring overnight temperatures down into the teens, 20s and 30s nearly down to the Gulf Coast. Monday morning will be even chillier than Sunday morning, especially along the Atlantic coast and into Florida.
That all sounds great for snow, but the second ingredient is where this conversation turns into an “if” rather than a “when” type situation.
This second surge of air will also bring a surge of much drier continental air that will be less favorable for precipitation of any kind.
Dew points will generally be in the teens and 20s across much of the South. The lower the number, the drier the air.
Unless heavier snow can develop, this dry air will be the limiting factor for this sort of event that models are occasionally trying to advertise.
Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He’s a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.
