The Portland Trail Blazers look to avenge their blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors in their next matchup against Jalen Johnson and the Atlanta Hawks tonight. This will be the first of two meetings against Atlanta this season, and the first time in eight years that the Blazers will face a Trae Young-less Hawks squad.
There are three certainties in life: Death, taxes, and the Hawks being in the Play-In. Following an offseason trade for Kristaps Porzingis, and the signings of (former Blazer) Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard, pundits and fans had high hopes for the new-look Hawks. Led by burgeoning forward Jalen Johnson, the Hawks seem poised to escape their eternal relegation to the 7-10 seeds. So far, fate remains victorious. In 42 games, the Hawks are 20-22, marred by continued injuries to the recently-traded Young, and the chronically-battered Porzingis.
Jalen Johnson is the head of this Hawks team. (He was also kind of the head of the previous team, given Trae Young had only played 10 games on the season). Johnson is a prolific scorer and can punish defenses from nearly anywhere on the court. Also, he is one of the most six-foot-eleven looking six-foot-eight guys you will ever see. On the year, Johnson is averaging 23 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists on 57.0% effective shooting.
Beyond Johnson, Atlanta fields one of the league’s most prolific three-point shooting teams. Luke Kennard is shooting nearly 50% from three on just over three attempts per game. Czechian guard Vit Krejci is cashing in on over 43% of his attempts from beyond the arc, which is unsurprising once you find out he spent a year in Oklahoma City. Alexander-Walker continues to remind the Blazers that trading him just after receiving him in 2022 was a poor decision, posting a career high 20 points per game on 38% percent shooting from deep. As a team, the Hawks are a top-five three-point shooting team in the league.
Despite that, the Hawks remain the league’s 18th-best offense. They also possess the league’s 16th best defensive rating, despite flooring some of the league’s best size, as well as last year’s Defensive Player of the Year runner-up in Dyson Daniels. Combing over the stats, it feels like they should be better than their record suggests. There’s really only one explanation: the Hawks are cursed to be eternally mid, forever being clawed back to the play-in tournament alongside the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat. So, expect variance: The Hawks can certainly beat you. But also, as the Basketball Gods have decreed, they might not.
Deni Avdija may be an MVP candidate. The team has certainly not posted the necessary success to warrant legitimate consideration, but the Blazers’ swift descent from “up-and-coming playoff team” to “mid-table G-league franchise” elucidates how important Avdija truly is.
Without Avdija’s heroics, the Blazers have limited offensive options. In their previous, record-setting matchup against the Warriors, Shaedon Sharpe was the definitive first option, posting nineteen points on 9-15 shooting. He was efficient in his limited volume, but had trouble navigating the increased defensive pressure. Sharpe’s lack of playmaking meant he had to temper his aggression, allowing Caleb Love to lead the Blazers in shot attempts on 5/16 shooting.
Assuming similar health for the Blazers, the Hawks will undoubtedly spring the same type of ball pressure on Sharpe. The onus is on the Blazers’ secondary playmakers to perform well enough that the Hawks feel bad about blitzing Sharpe, allowing him to drop 50 points. Increased minutes from Jrue Holiday will also ease some of this primary ball handling responsibility, hopefully. However, Holiday clearly needs to shake off a little more rust before he can assume a large enough role to benefit Sharpe.
Portland Trail Blazers (19-22) vs. Atlanta Hawks (20-22) – Thu. Jan 15 – 7pm Pacific
How to watch via antenna or cable: See your options on the Rip City Television Network.
How to watch via streaming: BlazerVision in Oregon and Washington; League Pass or NBA TV everywhere else.
Trail Blazers Injuries: Jerami Grant (Probable). Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson, Damian Lillard, Kris Murray, Matisse Thybulle, Blake Wesley (Out).
Hawks Injuries: Mouhamed Gueye, Luke Kennard (Questionable). N’Faly Dante, Kristaps Porzingis, Zaccharie Risacher (Out).
Jerami Grant. Jerami Grant has been upgraded to questionable for this matchup, and will hopefully be returning from a bout of tendonitis in his left achilles that caused him to miss the last nine games. This time, it wasn’t the contagious tendonitis that he seems to get at the end of each season.
The Blazers sorely need Grant’s offensive firepower, as well as his defensive length. Grant would provide a secondary option for containing Jalen Johnson, allowing Toumani Camara the ability to breathe.
Before being sidelined, Grant averaged 20 points on 39% from three.
Dyson Daniels. Last year’s steal leader and first-team All NBA selection Dyson Daniels has cooled off a bit this year. His averages have decreased across the board, and he routinely struggles from three… oh my God he shoots 11% from three.
Daniels is still a pest on the defensive end, and will require the Blazers’ ball handlers (*cough* Shaedon Sharpe *cough*) to be on top of their game. That said, he is currently shooting like the Draymond Green of Ray Feltons, so the Blazers can scheme against him as such.
Second Chance Points and Free Throws. Two things the Hawks are bad at: Offensive rebounding, and drawing fouls. Those just so happen to be two things the Blazers are very good at! Without Deni Avdija, the Blazers are likely reduced to being good at just one of those things, but if they can press the issue, second chance points could likely be the decider in this matchup. Donovan Clingan and Toumani Camara will need to crash the glass with force.
As a side note: Caleb Love, please stop crashing the glass with force.
