College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, January 17.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. NC State Wolfpack
While NC State’s offense ranks 14th nationally in points per possession overall, that number drops to 72nd at home, and they face a Georgia Tech defense that is 52nd in points per possession allowed. Georgia Tech games often feature shaky perimeter play, as the Yellow Jackets rank 33rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 29.8%, but the offense has been a problem, ranking 242nd in points per possession and 276th in turnovers per possession. This sets up as a mid-tempo game with NC State ranking 144th in possessions per game.
Pick: Georgia Tech vs. NC State Under 155.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 149.5)
12:30 PM Eastern
Duquesne Dukes vs. Fordham Rams
Fordham has controlled games with their ability to rebound and slow the pace, ranking 19th in rebound percentage and 363rd in possessions per game. Duquesne, meanwhile, ranks 32nd in possessions per game but has wasted many of those trips, ranking 284th in turnovers per possession. Their 2-point shooting percentage, which ranks sixth nationally at home, drops all the way to 125th away from home. Fordham has been solid defensively overall, ranking 93rd in points per possession allowed.
Picks: Fordham +2.5 and Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap Fordham -5 and Total 143)
1:00 PM Eastern
UCLA Bruins vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
UCLA has done a great job generating turnovers, ranking 34th in turnovers per possession, and has slowed games down significantly, ranking 323rd in possessions per game in road and neutral-site contests. Ohio State has defended the perimeter well, ranking 24th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 29.4%, and this game should be played at a controlled tempo with UCLA ranking 272nd in possessions per game overall.
Pick: UCLA vs. Ohio State Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 145)
2:00 PM Eastern
Sam Houston State Bearkats vs. Florida International Golden Panthers
Both teams want to play fast, with Sam Houston State ranking 72nd in possessions per game and Florida International 50th, but Florida International has done a strong job limiting scoring chances, ranking 50th in turnovers forced per possession. Sam Houston State ranks 35th in 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 37.7%, but Florida International is nearly as efficient from deep at home, shooting 37.4%. FIU should also be able to exploit Sam Houston inside, as Sam Houston ranks 306th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Florida International +1 (Greg’s Handicap Florida International -4.5)
South Dakota Coyotes vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
North Dakota’s defense has struggled overall, ranking 296th in points per possession allowed, but South Dakota has been even worse, ranking 312th in points per possession allowed. South Dakota plays at a fast pace, ranking 22nd in possessions per game, which has led to a high turnover rate, as they rank 285th in turnovers per possession away from home. Despite their issues, North Dakota has been strong at forcing turnovers, ranking 29th in turnovers generated per possession.
Pick: North Dakota PK (Greg’s Handicap North Dakota -5)
Columbia Lions vs. Brown Bears
Brown has failed to execute offensively this season, ranking 354th in points per possession at home. While Brown has defended the perimeter well at home, allowing just 26.5% shooting from 3-point range, Columbia should control the glass, ranking 13th in rebound percentage while Brown is 240th. Columbia also ranks 45th nationally in free throw shooting at 76.5%, which could be key in a tight game.
Pick: Columbia -3 (Greg’s Handicap Columbia -7.5)
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati has been excellent defensively, ranking eighth in points per possession allowed, but the offense has been sloppy, ranking 246th in points per possession and 303rd in turnovers per possession at home. That sets up poorly against an Iowa State defense that ranks third in turnovers forced per possession and fifth in points per possession allowed overall. Iowa State has also been elite offensively, ranking eighth in points per possession and third nationally in 3-point shooting percentage at 40.3%. Cincinnati has played at a faster tempo this season, ranking 108th in possessions per game.
Pick: Iowa State -6.5 (Greg’s Handicap Iowa State -11.5)
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Utah Utes
TCU has been strong defensively, ranking 25th in points per possession allowed, driven by a turnover-heavy defense that ranks 37th in turnovers forced per possession. Utah has struggled to generate second chances, ranking 237th in offensive rebound percentage, and has had issues defending inside, ranking 253rd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Overall, Utah ranks 280th in points per possession allowed.
Picks: TCU -4.5 and Under 155.5 (Greg’s Handicap TCU -7.5 and Total 151.5)
Bradley Braves vs. Illinois State Redbirds
Illinois State has been elite defensively at home, ranking fifth in the nation in points per possession allowed. Bradley ranks 90th in points per possession allowed overall and 20th in turnovers forced per possession away from home, but the Braves have struggled inside, ranking 288th in offensive rebound percentage and 223rd in 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Bradley vs. Illinois State Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 145.5)
3:00 PM Eastern
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Valparaiso Beacons
Northern Iowa plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, ranking 358th in possessions per game, and has been elite at defending the perimeter, ranking second nationally in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 26%. Valparaiso has struggled badly to make shots, ranking 360th in 2-point shooting percentage at home and 265th in 3-point shooting percentage at 31.6%.
Picks: Northern Iowa -1.5 and Under 130.5 (Greg’s Handicap Northern Iowa -4.5 and Total 126.5)
6:00 PM Eastern
Eastern Washington Eagles vs. Idaho State Bengals
Eastern Washington has struggled with fundamentals all season, ranking 269th in turnovers per possession on offense and 345th in points per possession allowed on defense. They face an Idaho State team that has been highly efficient offensively at home, ranking 39th in points per possession, while also defending the perimeter well, ranking 41st nationally in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, a number that improves to 10th at home.
Pick: Idaho State -5 (Greg’s Handicap Idaho State -9.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
St. John’s Red Storm vs. Villanova Wildcats
Villanova has struggled defensively at home, ranking 202nd in points per possession allowed and 343rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at home at 39.6%. St. John’s brings an elite defense, ranking 33rd in points per possession allowed and 28th in turnovers forced per possession, while also generating plenty of second chances on offense, ranking 25th in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: St. John’s +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap St. John’s -5)
BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech has taken a step back defensively, ranking 155th in points per possession allowed. BYU has been one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking 15th in points per possession allowed away from home and 25th in points per possession on offense. BYU also defends the perimeter well, ranking 36th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 29.9%, which impacts a Texas Tech offense that ranks 37th in points per possession and 24th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.8%.
Pick: BYU +2.5 (Greg’s Handicap BYU -2.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
Hawaii leads the nation in points per possession allowed, while UC Santa Barbara ranks 318th in points per possession allowed at home. Despite that, UCSB games do not feature many scoring chances, as the Gauchos rank 47th in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to rebound just 24.8% of missed shots, and 258th in possessions per game. Hawaii is also strong on the defensive glass, ranking 17th in defensive rebound percentage.
Picks: Hawaii -1.5 and Under 144.5 (Greg’s Handicap Hawaii -4.5 and Total 142.5)
