Flu cases are ticking down, but experts warn the U.S. isn’t out of the woods yet. Fifteen more children died from the flu in the week ending Jan. 10, bringing the total of pediatric deaths to 32.
On Friday, the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported an over 18% drop in confirmed flu cases, compared to the previous week. Doctor visits for respiratory illnesses also decreased by more than 5% and hospitalization rates went down by nearly 55%. Influenza deaths rose by 2%.
The CDC estimates that so far this season, 18 million people have had the flu, including 230,000 who were hospitalized and 9,300 who have died.
“It seems like there is some cautious good news that cases are declining,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University School of Public Health in Providence, Rhode Island. “But I’m going to put a giant asterisk on this because that does not mean the worst is behind us.”
Last year, flu cases dipped around this time before hitting a second peak in early February.
The CDC data also captures the national trend, and it’s likely some states have not yet seen influenza cases peak.
“We are not going to all experience this at the same time,” said Beth Carlton, a professor of public health at the Colorado School of Public Health at the University of Colorado in Aurora. “Nationwide, the trend is going down, but there may be differences in different states and communities as this virus runs its course.”
While influenza tends to show up first in highly populated areas, such as New York City, and then hit rural areas later in the season, “the challenge with flu is that it is incredibly nimble, so it does not always behave the way we expect.”
Cases may be dipping, but flu and other winter illnesses including norovirus, Covid and strep throat are closing schools in states around the country, including in Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia, where overall cases are reported to be low.
Idaho, New Mexico, New York and parts of Appalachia are still experiencing very high levels of flu, while the number of reported cases is low in Montana, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.
“The amount of people hospitalized for influenza around New Year’s was really high, the second highest in the past 10 years, with last year being the highest,” Carlton said.
The notably bad flu season this year is driven by a highly mutated strain of influenza A called H3N2 subclade K, which has key mutations that make it less similar to the strain used in this year’s flu vaccine. Influenza-like illnesses, which include other flu-like viruses including RSV and Covid, are also very high this year, Nuzzo said.
Usually these viruses surge in the same season, “but they are fortunately often staggered,” she said, noting that this year the viruses appear to be peaking around the same time, making this year’s cold and flu season particularly brutal.
Experts had worried earlier that the flu vaccine wouldn’t be a good match against the subclade K. Recent research found that the current flu vaccine is effective against the variant.
The current flu shot protects against three strains: two A strains (H1N1 and H3N2) and one B strain.
“With this K clade, we can still say the flu vaccine is helpful, especially for keeping you out of the hospital,” Nuzzo said.
Last year was the deadliest flu season for kids since the CDC began tracking pediatric deaths. A reported 289 children died from the flu, surpassing the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
“That double hump last flu season clearly had consequences,” Nuzzo said. “I will take any decrease in flu that we have, but we cannot say the worst is behind us,” she added.
According to the new CDC report, among children who were eligible for the flu shot and with known status of their vaccination, 90% of the pediatric deaths were in kids who weren’t vaccinated.
Under a recent change in the CDC’s guidance, flu shots are no longer recommended for all children. Previously, the CDC had advised everyone 6 months and older to get a flu shot every year.
