Miami Heat guard Pelle Larsson is averaging 9.3 points and 3.1 assists on 56.9 percent true shooting this season. (Mandatory Credit: Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
There’s the old sports cliché that is, “It’s not about how you start, it’s about how you finish.”
But in the NBA, even though your closing lineup is arguably more important, you always want to start games as strong as possible to keep them competitive. You want to stay within striking distance, hoping you’re not always having to crawl out of a hole that you dig for yourself.
The Miami Heat have had 14 different starting lineups this season, including eight (spanning over 21 games) that include second-year guard Pelle Larsson. Considering how well he’s seemingly jelled with the rest of the team’s core, is it time for Miami to increase his role? Let’s examine.
(Mandatory Credit: Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images)
Larsson, drafted No. 44 overall by the Heat in the 2024 NBA Draft, had an uneven rookie season with Miami. He averaged 4.6 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.2 assists on 43.8 percent shooting and 54.6 percent true shooting. He didn’t have a large role, but where the Arizona alum excelled was in two areas: Defensively (he was one of the Heat’s top POA defenders) and helping connect the puzzlie pieces together.
Dating back to his collegiate career, Larsson, who turns 25-years-old in February, has never been more than a glue guy. Thus, there was no role too big or too small for him; he could impact any game, whether it’s five minutes or 25 minutes.
You can’t teach that.
That’s can also be said about him this year, too. He’s started in 21 of his 34 games with Miami, averaging 9.3 points and 3.1 assists on 56.9 percent true shooting. However, Larsson’s impact has long transcended any single statistic.
Beyond the Heat’s 13-8 record when he starts, Larsson has jelled with the Heat’s best players this year. When he’s shared the floor with at least two of Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, the Heat own a 13.1 NET Rating with a 121.9 offensive rating (249 minutes). Correlation doesn’t equal causation, but three of the Heat’s four-best lineups (min. 25) include Larsson.
Why? He’s a very good defender, willing to do the dirty work; he’s the Heat’s best cutter, where he makes himself available for his teammates; he’s an excellent passer, way better than his assist numbers suggest. Larsson is one of Miami’s most malleable players.
At some point, that’s starter material.
This is the golden question.
In my mind, Adebayo and Mitchell are two linchpins. Personally, I would bench either Herro or Powell for Larsson. However, I can’t see head coach Erik Spoelstra going that route, yet.
Thus, the answer is Andrew Wiggins. A Mitchell-Herro-Powell-Larsson-Adebayo lineup is small, unless you substitute Kel’el Ware for one of those other three players. The 7-footer played his way out of that conversation for now, though.
Larsson isn’t as efficient as Wiggins, but he’s a much better passer and as impactful of a defender. Spoelstra hasn’t shown any willingness to bench Wiggins because of his two-way prowess. And that’s reasonable.
But Larsson, to this point, has done enough to enter the conversation. At the end of the day, he’s a winning basketball player, so it’s not going to matter which combination he’s with — because he’s going to positively impact the game anyway.
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