David Ord, Nic Doggett and John Ingles tackle the key questions ahead of Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham.
Sir Gino v The New Lion who comes out on top?
David Ord: Sir Gino for me with a slight concern over the ground and how the race will run. At the time of writing it’s soft and there’s more rain forecast. He’s a speed horse and wouldn’t be suited to a slog.
Then there’s the lack of any pace angle in the race too. We saw how he can be inclined to take a hold back from a year off at Kempton last month. Hopefully that freshness will be out of his system.
The New Lion would ideally like to make it a test but looked completely unsuited to making the running in the Fighting Fifth and ultimately I think Sir Gino is the faster horse and that will win the day.
Nic Doggett: I’m not sure if it’s just the ‘January blues’, but I’m worried that we might not see Sir Gino on account of the rain. He doesn’t really need the race does he, given how good he looked at Kempton? And Nicky Henderson isn’t one to leave his Champion Hurdle behind a month early.
On the other hand, The New Lion has plenty to prove after the Fighting Fifth, and the slow ground will help push his stamina to the fore, so it looks the perfect prep in what has become a wet, miserable month.
Roll on March!
John Ingles: It’s a close call on Timeform ratings, with Sir Gino just a couple of pounds ahead. He goes on soft ground, so that in itself isn’t a problem, but with The New Lion having the more proven stamina of the two, that could make things closer under the conditions than it would otherwise have been.
I’d have to go with Sir Gino though, just on the basis that he comes here on the back of a ready win at Kempton, whereas his rival needs to bounce back from that fall in the Fighting Fifth.
What do we need to see from Grey Dawning?
DO: You want to see him win – and win well. I’m not sure it’s going to set up as a significant Cheltenham Gold Cup trial, a race that will be run at a very different tempo.
And he meets horses with a question mark or two over them. L’Homme Presse’s stable continues out of sorts, Flooring Porter is running for the first time in 486 days, and Spillane’s Tower hasn’t convinced in two starts this term, albeit his run over hurdles last time was more encouraging.
All in all, despite his penalty, Grey Dawning to win but I don’t think his price for the March showpiece will be in freefall afterwards.
ND: I think the Skeltons will just want to see him win and add another £70k+ to the pot to be honest (I do realise how grumpy I sound).
Normally you’d expect Flooring Porter to go a good clip, but after such a long time out it would be something of a surprise to see him last as long in front as might normally be the case. With L’Homme Presse hard to weigh up (especially in the jumping department), and Spillane’s Tower having plenty to prove over this trip in open company, Harry Skelton may find himself with little to beat from a fair way out.
So, basically, a good round of jumping at a tricky course in the manner of his Turners win rather than his previous effort over these fences where he belted two out.
JI: It’s disappointing that Haiti Couleurs hasn’t been declared as he might have given Grey Dawning much more of a race than he did in the Betfair Chase. You’d want to see another good round of jumping from Grey Dawning, just like at Haydock, and then a strong finish up the hill on this stiffer track.
Form-wise, he might need to raise his game a bit from the Betfair, as last year’s winner L’Homme Presse goes well here and he looks to retain more ability these days than stablemate Royale Pagaille who was second to Grey Dawning at Haydock.
Impose Toi the best British stayer so far this season – will he reign again in the Cleeve?
DO: I think he’ll have the measure of Strong Leader again, given that horse doesn’t seem quite as effective at Cheltenham as he is elsewhere. With Theleme not declared it’s hard to back against the Nicky Henderson horse given his quite significant improvement over three miles this campaign.
ND: I can see the arguments for Honesty Policy and Kabral Du Mathan in the division as a whole, but for me Impose Toi is the most progressive stayer around and the way he is winning is always adding the question; how much more is there to come?
I think lots, as his win at Ascot proved that he can master Strong Leader off level weights, and the make-up of this race looks likely to suit his hold-up style just fine.
If there’s a spot of value, it might lie with Doddiethegreat who surprised me when appearing to relish a return to the Cheltenham hill when winning the Pertemps in March; he’d be my forecast suggestion.
JI: He’s in top form, is proven at the track, handles soft ground and has the beating of Strong Leader and Doddiethegreat from when they met in the Long Walk last time, so has no apparent excuses not to. Strong Leader is in good form too and stuck to his task well at Ascot, looking a more fluent jumper these days, but he’ll need to improve on his showings in this race in the last two renewals.
Anything else catch your eye on the Cheltenham card?
DO: Plenty. Two for now would be Taurus Bay who looked very good when winning at Aintree last time, hurdling particularly fluently. I think he’ll give Act Of Innocence plenty to think about in the finale while in the opening Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase, I like Kdeux Saint Fray.
He won here in November and lost nothing in defeat when chasing home Guard The Moon, a subsequent winner at Windsor, at Aintree next time. Again he caught he eye with his slick jumping there and looks just the sort for this test.
ND: I’d get a rap across the knuckles (HR take note, please) if I didn’t mention the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase (12:05) and its history of being won by horses who went on to much better things; the last three renewals have gone to Stage Star (2023), Ginny’s Destiny (2024) and Jagwar (2025).
‘Sorry, that was the worst ride I’ve ever given a horse!’ Sean Bowen told Olly Murphy that after Barvolento was beaten on his chasing debut, but with that form working out well, and having won gamely at Kempton since, the seven-year-old could be a force to reckon with from his new BHA mark of 125.
JI: Act of Innocence certainly looks interesting in the Old Park Star colours in the concluding novice hurdle. He impressed on his first start for Nicky Henderson on his hurdling debut at Newbury in a strong-looking maiden that his trainer has won with some top novices, Jonbon included.
While Act of Innocence was turned over at short odds back at Newbury last time, that was by Paul Nicholls’ promising juvenile Minella Yoga (who could boost that form earlier on the card), and a step up in trip and return to softer ground may well suit.
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