NFL playoff picks: Patriots vs. Broncos, Rams vs. Seahawks score predictions & matchup breakdowns

Why Dan picked the Seahawks: Because Seattle looks like the league’s most dominant team.

Winning on the road in the postseason is not easy — I get it — but the Rams have made it look so hard over the last couple weeks. They were trailing late in the fourth quarter to a sub-.500 Panthers squad in the Wild Card Round. Then the league’s top scoring offense needed overtime to reach 20 points against a less-than-stellar Chicago defense that didn’t have a single takeaway in the game. Sean McVay, to his credit, said it best when he told Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen after the game, “Hey, unbelievable job. You kicked our ass. Great job, man.”

I’m afraid McVay might have something similar to say after the NFC Championship Game when he goes to shake the hand of Mike Macdonald. You know, the guy with the best defense in the league.

Yes, these division rivals split two extremely tight games in the regular season — one of which turned into a shootout — but I don’t like this matchup for the Rams as much as I thought I would before the playoffs started. For one, while Los Angeles is trying to win its third straight on the road, the Seahawks had the benefit of an opening-round bye and put the 49ers away early in the Divisional Round, providing even more time to rest for their key players. Second, history doesn’t seem to be on the side of Matthew Stafford and Co. Consider these nuggets from NFL Research:

• The No. 1 scoring offense is 0-4 against the No. 1 scoring defense in the conference championship or later since 1990 (three of four offenses had the league MVP that season).
• The passing yards leader is 0-6 in the playoffs against the No. 1 scoring defense in the last 50 seasons.

Stafford played at an MVP-caliber level in 2025, but he’s going to have to perform much better under pressure than he has so far in the playoffs if he’s going to connect with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams for some back-breaking plays. The Rams signal-caller has the lowest passer rating under pressure (24.8) in the 2025 postseason, per Next Gen Stats, going 6-of-20 for 89 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. To put that into context, a quarterback throwing only incompletions registers a 39.6 passer rating. That’s not great, going into a game against the defense that posted the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league (38.9%) in the regular season.

Of course, there is the Sam Darnold factor to consider. Did he truly leave his nightmares against the Rams behind when he led Seattle to an epic comeback over L.A. in Week 16? Or might his oblique injury — and the Rams’ formidable front line — catch up to him on Sunday? I’m not overlooking his past. Darnold’s seven interceptions and eight giveaways against the Rams since 2024 are the most by any QB versus any single opponent during that period. He has just an 84.9 passer rating since Week 11 (23rd among 35 QBs with 75+ attempts in that span). Darnold’s going to have to step it up for Seattle to win, and the task isn’t made any easier by the loss of RB Zach Charbonnet to injury. Fortunately for the Seahawks, Kenneth Walker III is on a heater right now, gaining at least 133 yards from scrimmage in three of the past four games.

The left tackle situation for the ‘Hawks does give me pause, with the top three options at the position — starter Charles Cross and backups Josh Jones and Amari Kight — all sitting out Wednesday’s practice. The alarm bells are ringing at that spot. Ultimately, I’m putting my trust in Macdonald’s healthy and unrelenting defense to send the team to Santa Clara.