Charlie Cummings dives into his favorite Courtland Sutton prop bets for the New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos AFC Championship matchup.
The Broncos and Patriots face off in the AFC Championship at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jan. 25. It’s projected to be a defensive struggle, which puts emphasis on these offensive players. Denver’s offense is one big question mark without Bo Nix; Courtland Sutton hopes to be a part of the answer.
New England is a 4.5-point favorite and -238 on the moneyline, while Denver is +195 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 42.5 points. Here are my top Courtland Sutton prop bets for the Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship matchup on Sunday.
Best Courtland Sutton Prop Bets
So many things are working against the Broncos here. First and foremost, the injury report: Nix is out for the rest of the season with a fractured ankle. That thrusts Jarrett Stidham into starting duties, and his first throw of the game will be his first NFL throw since 2023. Not ideal for the pass attack.
The Patriots also got a bit of a break in the injury report. Both of their starting outside corners, Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, cleared concussion protocols for this game. They’re good to go and ready to make life hard on these Broncos receivers. Gonzalez will be following Sutton around all afternoon, and that’s going to be tough. When he’s healthy and on his game, there are few better shutdown corners than Gonzo.
The downgrade in starting quarterback is clear. Nix sure has his detractors, but that man was balling against the Bills. He pushes the ball downfield with regularity, and always keeps his top receivers involved; Sutton received nine targets this last week.
I’m not confident in Stidham. The last time these two were in the starting lineup together, Stidham and Sutton connected on just one pass for two yards in the final game of the 2023 season. Granted, it was the last game of a lost season, but that’s a concerning history.
As if the Pats’ secondary and a backup quarterback weren’t bad enough, it’s storm weather in Denver. Temperatures will peak near kickoff around 22 degrees, and there’s a possibility of snow. Sutton is no stranger to catching balls in the cold, but it sure doesn’t help.
All of the data and conventional wisdom are working against Sutton and the Broncos’ passing attack. I’d like to find some optimism here, but it’s out of my reach. Let’s hammer the under on Sutton’s receiving yards and receptions.
Best Bet: Courtland Sutton Under 4.5 Receptions and Under 46.5 Receiving Yards SGP (+106)
