Blake Krass dives into his favorite Hunter Henry prop bet for the AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Broncos.
The AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Broncos kicks off at 3:00 p.m. ET in Denver.
New England is a 3.5-point favorite and is -205 on the moneyline, while Denver is +170 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 42.5 points.
Here are my top Hunter Henry prop bets for the AFC Championship Game.
Best Hunter Henry Prop Bets
Hunter Henry and the Patriots are a game away from getting to the Super Bowl. While the New England defense caught a break in the sense that it gets to face a backup quarterback, it will be a tough test for the offense. Drake Maye and his offense will go up against a Denver defense that ranked second in the NFL in total defense and third in scoring defense during the regular season. Patrick Surtain II is the best cover corner in the NFL, and Denver also has an elite pass rush that will make life hard on Maye. Maye should look to dump the ball off for easy completions in this game, especially early on, as he tries to get into the flow of the game.
When Maye works the ball in the short passing game, Hunter Henry is one of his favorite targets. Stefon Diggs was the team’s clear WR1, but Henry ranked second behind him in both receptions and receiving yards. Henry ranked second among tight ends, behind only Trey McBride, in total EPA this season. Denver is elite on the outside covering wide receivers, which often forces opposing offenses to feed their tight ends. During the regular season, Denver gave up 62 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, the seventh-most in the NFL.
Denver has no interest in letting this game turn into a shootout. If this turns into a battle of Drake Maye vs. Jarrett Stidham, the Patriots will win. Denver wants to slow this game way down and force Drake Maye to methodically work his way down the field without making mistakes. It will emphasize taking away the deep ball that Maye loves to throw, and force him to be disciplined. That should lead to plenty of action for Hunter Henry. After all, this is Drake Maye’s first career road playoff game, and it will be an incredibly hostile environment. Josh McDaniels will have drilled into Maye the importance of taking what is in front of him, rather than forcing the ball. In many cases, that will mean getting it to Hunter Henry.
My favorite Hunter Henry prop is for him to have over 42.5 receiving yards against the Broncos. Henry isn’t the most elite athlete among tight ends, but he has sure hands. He is also great at turning upfield immediately and grabbing a few extra yards on every catch. Henry had 64 receiving yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card Round against the Chargers. He also went over this number in five of his last seven games of the regular season. He should get a lot of targets from Drake Maye in this game and get over 42.5 yards once again.
Best Bet: Hunter Henry o42.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
