Conference Championship Quick Reads: Darnold Delivers

The NFC Championship Game was a quarterback battle for the ages, especially when we consider the quality of the defenses that each quarterback was facing. The Seahawks were first in pass defense DVOA during the regular season and the Rams were fourth. Nonetheless, Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold each threw for over 340 yards and three passing touchdowns.
Darnold came out ahead on the scoreboard and is going to Super Bowl LX, although Stafford came out ahead in DYAR, 253 to 196. Combine the two players, and this was one of the best quarterback games ever in the postseason.
I looked at the top playoff games based on the harmonic mean of DYAR between the two quarterbacks. Harmonic mean is a type of average that gives less weight to outliers. For those who go way back in the world of analytics, this is what Bill James used to use for his “power-speed number.”
Based on harmonic mean, here are the top combined quarterback games in the postseason going back to 1978, led by Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers in an overtime classic from 16 years ago.
Top Postseason QB Matchups by Harmonic Mean of DYAR, 1978-2025
Year
Week
QB1
Team1
DYAR
QB2
Team2
DYAR
HARM
2009
WC
K.Warner
ARI
372
A.Rodgers
GB
175
238
1999
DIV
K.Warner
STL
233
J.George
MIN
216
224
2025
CCG
M.Stafford
LAR
253
S.Darnold
SEA
196
221
2017
SB
T.Brady
NE
296
N.Foles
PHI
159
206
2019
DIV
P.Mahomes
KC
269
D.Watson
HOU
164
204
1981
DIV
D.Strock
MIA
221
D.Fouts
SD
180
199
1982
WC
D.Fouts
SD
286
T.Bradshaw
PIT
148
195
2007
DIV
P.Manning
IND
205
P.Rivers
SD
182
193
2001
WC
R.Gannon
OAK
238
V.Testaverde
NYJ
162
193
2017
WC
D.Brees
NO
218
C.Newton
CAR
167
189
2011
WC
D.Brees
NO
335
M.Stafford
DET
131
188
1991
DIV
W.Moon
HOIL
275
J.Elway
DEN
143
188
Here’s a look at all the DYAR stats from the 2025 (2026) conference championship games. Please note that there is no adjustment for the swirling winds and snow in Denver, so the numbers for the Broncos-Patriots game are very low.
Quarterbacks
Rk
Player
Team
CP/AT
Yds
TD
INT
Sacks
Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1.
Matthew Stafford
LAR
22/34
374
3
0
1
253
243
10
SEA
2.
Sam Darnold
SEA
25/36
346
3
0
3
196
217
-21
LAR
3.
Drake Maye
NE
10/21
86
0
0
5
-39
-78
39
DEN
4.
Jarrett Stidham
DEN
17/31
133
1
1
3
-148
-139
-9
NE
Matthew Stafford had 171 passing DYAR just on deep passes, 16 or more air yards. He completed 8 of 12 for 247 yards, by far the best any quarterback had been on deep passes against the Seahawks this season… Sam Darnold was 6-of-9 on third down with a sack. All six complete passes moved the sticks, highlighted by the 51-yarder to Rashid Shaheed early in the game…. Drake Maye ran seven times for 68 yards and a touchdown, plus the first down that iced the game at the end of the fourth quarter. By DYAR, Maye was tied for the second-best rushing game of the year by a quarterback. Jaxson Dart had 42 DYAR in Week 17 against the Raiders (6-50-2) and Josh Allen also had 39 DYAR in Week 11 against the Buccaneers (6-40-3)… Jarrett Stidham completed just 3 of 8 passes on first down for 14 yards.
Top Five Running Backs by DYAR
Kyren Williams built up the value with a 13-yard catch on first-and-10 from the Rams 36 and a 9-yard touchdown on second-and-8… Blake Corum‘s big gains were 19 and 11 yards; not bad against the best run defense in the NFL this year… Kenneth Walker III had four catches that each gained at least 10 yards. However, he also had five carries that were stuffed or lost yardage… Rhamondre Stevenson had nine carries for a yard or less, but gets a big positive opponent adjustment for facing the Broncos run defense.
Bottom Running Back by DYAR
1.
RJ Harvey
DEN
13
37
0
4/6
22
0
-18
-13
-5
NE
RJ Harvey had three carries for 9 yards apiece but six carries that gained a yard or less.
Top Five Wide Receivers or Tight Ends by DYAR
It’s only appropriate that the two candidates for Offensive Player of the Year had big games in their final meeting against each other. However, Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s 77 DYAR were more impactful than Puka Nacua‘s 73 DYAR, as Nacua had 25 DYAR with two final, fairly meaningless catches on the Rams’ aborted final drive… Davante Adams had catches of 35, 29 and 23 yards plus a 2-yard touchdown.
Bottom Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk
Player
Team
Rec
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Total
DYAR
Opp
1.
Kayshon Boutte
NE
1
6
6
6.0
0
-23
DEN
Kayshon Boutte‘s only catch was for 6 yards on first-and-10. Two of the incomplete passes came in the second half once the weather was bad.




