16 stats: Lane Hutson’s strong side, Evan Bouchard’s dominance and Matthew Tkachuk’s return – The Athletic
Kaiden Guhle, a steady top-four defenseman, returned to the Montreal Canadiens’ lineup on Jan. 10, and the results since have been mixed: A 4-4-1 slide that’s pushed the Canadiens into a wild-card position.
That’s not Guhle’s fault as a player, but it does raise a question about how Montreal’s top defenders fit together, with three of their four best being lefties. The biggest determining factor of that is the team’s best defenseman, Lane Hutson.
It is a testament to Hutson’s all-world ability that he won the Calder Trophy last season playing on his off side. But if Guhle’s absence showed anything, it’s how big a step Hutson takes playing on his strong side. I asked our Canadiens writer, Arpon Basu, about it, and he had a lot of interesting things to say on the subject.
“Martin St. Louis feels Hutson is a more dangerous offensive player on his strong side because he likes to ‘dance’ down the wall in the offensive zone and create that way. He is better able to identify lanes and hit teammates with passes off that dancing when he’s on his forehand. Defensively, however, St. Louis doesn’t feel it makes much of a difference what side Hutson plays on, but he also more generally feels one of Hutson’s best traits defensively is not only an ability to kill plays, but to do so while also coming out with the puck on his stick, allowing him to go straight from defense to offense.
“As far as I’m concerned, that ability is also helped by playing on his strong side, even if St. Louis doesn’t think so. As for Hutson, he clearly prefers playing on his strong side but is obviously willing to do whatever the team needs of him … the Canadiens have come to realize they are a much better team when Hutson is on the left.”
The numbers bear that out, too. In Guhle’s absence, the Canadiens went 11-10-3 while Hutson played with Jayden Struble on his weak side, and then 10-2-3 while playing with Alexandre Carrier on his strong side.
Carrier is a better defender than Struble, but that alone doesn’t explain the difference in scoring chance and goal share with Hutson. In 312 minutes with Carrier, Hutson has a 55 percent xG and 63 percent of the goals. With Struble, that drops to 46 and 47 percent, respectively. Offensively, Hutson’s pair with Carrier generated 4.06 goals per 60 compared to 1.94 with Struble, while also allowing almost 0.5 fewer chances per 60. And he’s been even better with Noah Dobson if the Canadiens ever want to turn to their own off-brand version of the Cale Makar-Devon Toews pair in Colorado.
What St. Louis and Basu posit adds up both offensively and defensively. During the stretch with Carrier, Hutson had an average Game Score of 2.40, well above the 0.50 he was at prior. It’s the difference between storming into the Norris conversation and a sophomore slump. Hutson’s projected Net Rating now sits at plus-13.2, which is right in the thick of the top-10 conversation.
The tricky part has been fitting Guhle back in with the newfound knowledge of just how good Hutson can be on his strong side. That could mean a high-powered third pair anchored by Guhle, though he seems at his best as a support piece rather than a lead. The answer might be exactly what Montreal did against Boston and Vegas: Shifting Guhle to his off side instead. The result of that: A 68 percent xG.
That’s obviously a small sample, but it’s an encouraging one. A simple flip of sides on the second pair could make a big difference for the Canadiens down the stretch.
16 stats
1. Cole Caufield scoring in bunches
With so many strong winger options, the need to fill some penalty-killing roles and Caufield’s size concerns, it was somewhat understandable at the time why Caufield was left off Team USA. Even a perfectly optimal lineup without some of USA’s weird decisions would’ve been a close call.
That was at the time; things have changed since.
Lately, Caufield has been making the idea to leave him off the team seem more foolish with each passing game. His latest goal-scoring binge has him on a six-game streak where Caufield has nine goals, pushing his pace for the season up to 46. Only two players have more than Caufield’s 30 this season. Bill Guerin better hope the Americans don’t come up a goal short.
2. Nikita Kucherov keeps cooking
I made a small note of how hot Nikita Kucherov has been in the last 16 Stats two weeks ago and he’s kept up the pace since with 13 points in six games. His totals after a slow start, no matter how long you look back, are mind-boggling.
Since the turn of the calendar, Kucherov has 29 points in 12 games and 35 in his last 15, the latter of which is a 191-point pace. To put that into perspective, I took a look at Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Patrick Kane, Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon through every 15-game stretch of their careers. Here’s where Kucherov’s last 15 games stand compared to each of his contemporaries’ best.
Connor McDavid: 38
Nikita Kucherov: 35
Patrick Kane: 34
Nathan MacKinnon: 33
Alex Ovechkin: 32
Sidney Crosby: 31
Evgeni Malkin: 30
That’s special stuff from Kucherov, who continues to cement himself as an all-time great. When The Athletic ran its NHL99 series at the end of 2022, Kucherov came in at 72 — he’s going to come in a lot higher when all is said and done.
3. Boston’s power play powering hot streak
The Bruins have been a seriously streaky team this year and right now they’re in the midst of a really strong stretch, going 11-2-1 since breaking a six-game losing streak. The catalyst for that: A scorching power-play that’s scored 13.9 goals-per-60 while generating 13.2 expected goals per 60.
While Boston’s five-on-five play still warrants some skepticism, the combination of star talent, elite goaltending and an incredible power play may be enough to come out on top of the East playoff dogpile. The key will be surviving the league’s fifth-toughest schedule going forward.
4. Marco Kasper thriving on the top line
From Oct. 31 to Jan. 12, Marco Kasper played 35 games. In that time, he scored zero goals and just three assists, one of the coldest streaks for a skill player that I’ve ever witnessed.
Desperate for a spark, coach Todd McLellan moved Kasper up to the top line with Dylan Larkin in early January and while it took some time for Kasper to adjust, he finally broke the drought against the Sharks on Jan. 16. From that game forward, Kasper has two goals and six points in six games while earning 65 percent of the expected goals, looking a lot closer to the promising talent he was in his rookie season. If Kasper can stay on track, that would be a massive boost for Detroit in the second half.
5. Matthew Tkachuk’s return
After a lengthy absence due to injury, Matthew Tkachuk made his long-awaited return to the lineup on Jan. 19 and, as expected, there’s been some rust to wear off. Tkachuk has three points in five games and has had a tough time driving play to his usual standard with a 45 percent shot attempt rate and 34 percent expected goals rate — both near team lows. Will he be able to get back on track in time for the Olympics?
6. Fortunate Florida in one-goal games
The Panthers have done well to survive injuries this season and one reason for that is their incredible aptitude in one-goal games.
Generally speaking, one-goal games are more about getting the bounces than earning the win and teams tend to regress from season-to-season. Just look at last year’s league leader, Toronto, dropping from a .733 win percentage to .478 this year as one example.
The Panthers have a hilarious 15-1-3 record in one-goal games this season, with their first regulation loss coming against Utah on Tuesday night. That’s a .789 points percentage. In the salary cap era, only one team has been better over a full season: The 2014-15 Anaheim Ducks, who went 33-1-7 for an .805 win percentage.
On the flip side, the Penguins are 7-5-11 in one-goal games and 19-9 otherwise. That bodes well for their surprising playoff push.
7. Goal difference matters less this season
Because it takes the luck of one-goal wins out of the equation, the hallmark of a great team is usually its goal differential. Usually.
While the league’s top four teams by points percentage also lead the league in goal differential, there’s significantly more chaos elsewhere. For example, Detroit is sixth in points percentage but 13th in goal differential, while Utah is fifth in goal differential but 15th in points percentage.
Significant gaps like that aren’t usually common and that shows in the relationship between goal differential and wins. Since making overtime three-on-three, the correlation between goal difference and wins suggests that goal difference explains 92.6 percent of a team’s wins, with the rest coming down to sequencing luck. The lowest mark for a full season during that stretch was last year’s 90.3 percent, while the shortened 2021 season was at 90.0 percent. This year’s correlation sits at 70 percent, an unprecedentedly low mark.
8. Detroit and Winnipeg on opposite sides of the goal differential spectrum
Maybe things even out with more games, or teams start regressing toward their goal rate. But if it feels like the standings are a little weirder this year, that’s one reason why. Based on the relationship between goal differential and wins this season, these are the top and bottom five teams above expectations.
More wins than expected based on goal differential
1. Detroit: +4.2 wins
2. New Jersey: +3.7 wins
3. Anaheim: +3.7 wins
4. San Jose: +3.6 wins
5. Florida: +3.4 wins
Fewer wins than expected based on goal differential
1. Winnipeg: -4.1 wins
2. Washington: -3.5 wins
3. Los Angeles: -2.9 wins
4. Chicago: -2.7 wins
5. Vegas: -2.7 wins
9. Jaccob Slavin is back
It’s great for Carolina that they were able to play well in Jaccob Slavin’s absence, but now that he’s back, the team is really firing on all cylinders. The team has 60 percent of the expected goals and 64 percent of the goals since his return and he’s been a massive part of it. Back in his tough minutes role, the Hurricanes have a 72 percent xG while outscoring teams 8-4 in Slavin’s minutes.
10. Dougie Hamilton, since being scratched
We talked about this last time around, but the good games kept coming, so it’s worth another update. Since being a healthy scratch on Jan. 11, Dougie Hamilton has points in eight straight games, is up 8-4 on the scoresheet and has a 54 percent xG rate, good for an average Game Score of 1.52. Yeah, he’s still got juice.
11. Daniil But’s upside
Extremely noteworthy rookie stat: Utah’s Daniil But currently leads all players in xG with a 65 percent rate. He may be playing sheltered minutes and he may not be scoring much (just 0.62 points-per-60), but getting those kinds of underlying numbers that early is still a bright green flag. But was taken 12th in 2023 and has a tantalizing 6-foot-5 frame; if he starts putting it all together, he’s going to be a major problem.
Some of But’s most interesting comps based on his NHL work to date: Bobby Ryan, Valeri Nichushkin and Aliaksei Protas.
12. Brock Faber: Elite sidekick
There’s a big difference between being The Guy and being The Sidekick on a top pair. Brock Faber was struggling a bit as Minnesota’s leader on the back end, but with Quinn Hughes’ arrival, he’s slid into a better-fitting role. As a secondary offensive facilitator, Faber has seen a massive jump in production, scoring 17 points in 23 games. Some of that is coattail riding, of course, but that’s still not production that we ever saw from Filip Hronek in the same role.
13. Canucks struggling without Hughes
Everyone who follows hockey knew the Canucks would struggle after moving Hughes, but boy has it been a capital-S Struggle. The team is 6-14-2 since the trade and ranks last at five-on-five and on the penalty kill and 22nd on the power play. Since the deal, Vancouver’s projected point total has fallen from 77.2 to 63.0. The team’s chances of getting the first pick have climbed from 8.6 percent to 23 percent, with a top-five pick being a near certainty at 98.8 percent.
One guy really struggling: Tyler Myers. His minus-10.2 Net Rating now sits last in the league, and since the deal, he has a 41 percent xG while being outscored 19-6.
14. Seattle trio challenging for worst xG in the analytics era
According to Evolving Hockey’s xG model, the Kraken have a trio of players who are just getting crushed out there this season with the league’s worst xG rates. Chandler Stephenson and Frederick Gaudreau are at 32 percent and Eeli Tolvanen is at 33.6. Since 2007-08, those marks would rank second, third and fifth worst among players who have played over 500 minutes.
Even worse is what happens when the trio is on together; in 150 minutes, they have a ghastly 23 percent xG rate. The next worst regular line is at 40.5 percent, probably because lines this porous don’t usually last this long. The previous low for a full line: 30.4 percent from Columbus’ Boone Jenner, Gustav Nyquist and Patrik Laine in 2021-22.
The funny thing about all this: Seattle’s trio (which has since been split apart) still managed to outscore opponents 5-4 this season.
15. Evan Bouchard is too good to be off Team Canada
I don’t care how poor Evan Bouchard is perceived to be defensively; it’s still baffling to me that a player this good offensively was left off Team Canada. He’s a complete game-changer with the puck and has proven time and time again in the postseason that he delivers when it matters.
Bouchard’s Defensive Rating this year is minus-1.6, the lowest mark of any player currently in the top 50 by Net Rating. That matters. But his offense more than makes up for that with an Offensive Rating of plus-14.6 that was buoyed by an incredible six-point effort last Saturday. It’s also the fourth-best mark in the league behind only McDavid, MacKinnon and Kucherov.
Canada is still the favorite without Bouchard. But by cowering toward more risk-averse defenders, they took a big risk that they wouldn’t need the outsized reward Bouchard provides. Since being left off the team, Bouchard has seven goals and 19 points in 13 games, a 60 percent xG and goal rate and an average Game Score of 1.95.
16. Returning from injury is hard for goalies
We saw it with Connor Hellebuyck. We saw it with Lukas Dostal. And we’re seeing it again with Adin Hill. Vegas’ starter made his return to the lineup on Jan. 15, and while he has two wins to his name, he also doesn’t have an above-average save percentage in any of his four starts. Since returning, Hill has an .825 save percentage, the third-worst mark in the league among goalies to play three or more games.
It takes time for goalies, and Dostal himself is a great example of that. After struggling initially, he’s been back on a tear of late with a .931 save percentage over his last six games — all wins.
— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, NHL and Hockey Stat Cards
