• What: Michigan at Michigan State
• When: 8 p.m. Friday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: FOX/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 84 (MSU broadcast), 195 (Michigan broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 19-2 overall and 9-1 in the Big Ten, and is ranked No. 7 by the Associated Press and No. 8 in the USA TODAY Coaches poll, No. 9 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee and No. 6 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Michigan is 19-1 overall, 9-1 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 3 by the AP and 2 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. The Wolverines are No. 3 in the NET rankings and No. 2 via Kenpom.
• Betting line: Michigan -1.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 756-304 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Michigan — Dusty May is 172-80 in his eighth season as a head coach, including 46-11 in his second season with the Wolverines. He previously spent six seasons at Florida Atlantic.
• Series: Michigan leads 104-92 all-time. MSU won both meetings last season.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.8
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 13.1
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.4
SG (99) Divine Ugochukwu (6-3) 5.5
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 14.1
Michigan
C (15) Aday Mara (7-3) 10.9
F (21) Morez Johnson (6-9) 13.9
F (23) Yaxel Lendeborg (6-9) 14.2
G (4) Nimari Burnett (6-5) 8.7
PG (3) Elliot Cadeau (6-1) 10.1
• MSU update: The Spartans arrive at this showdown having won seven straight in Big Ten play by escaping Rutgers in overtime on Tuesday night. MSU is the top defense in the Big Ten and nationally, per Kenpom. In conference games, they’re No. 1 in defensive efficiency, No. 1 in 2-point and 3-point defense, No. 1 in defensive rebound percentage and No. 2 in offensive rebounding percentage. The Spartans are the No. 6 offense in the 18-team Big Ten, including being sixth in 3-point shooting at 35.6%. Point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. has ratcheted up his scoring of late, averaging 18.6 points per game in the nine games since Christmas, while still averaging 8.4 assists in that span, down only about one assist per game (though that’s boosted slightly by a 17-assist game against Maryland). Coen Carr, who had a slump in early January, averaging 6.7 points and 3.3 rebounds over three games, has come on nicely over the last three games, averaging, 14 points and 6.3 rebounds. He’s also hit 7 of 11 3-pointers over four games, after going 2-for-22 in an 11-game stretch before that. Jaxon Kohler, meanwhile, is in his own slump from beyond the arc, making just 3 of 19 3-point attempts over his last five games, after making 32 of 60 3s through 16 games.
MORE: Couch: Coen Carr knew Izzo had his back. Carr’s response at Oregon shows he has more to give.
• Michigan update: The Wolverines have lost just once this season — catching a hot-shooting Wisconsin team on the wrong day. They have come back to earth a bit (especially their guard play and shooting) after bludgeoning much of their early slate, including a 30-point win over Auburn and winning by 40 against Gonzaga, both games on a neutral floor. Like MSU, Michigan barely squeaked by Penn State on the road and picked up competitive but somewhat decisive wins at Oregon and Washington, as well as at home against Indiana. Michigan beat previously unbeaten Nebraska in Ann Arbor on Tuesday, 75-72, which is essentially the same result as MSU’s two-point loss in Lincoln. You get at least three points from the oddsmakers for being home, so a three-point home win is viewed as the same as a three-point road loss in terms of quality of performance. Nebraska was also missing two starters, including center Rienk Mast, against the Wolverines. Michigan has the No. 3 offense and defense in Big Ten games, per Kenpom, and is No. 1 in 2-point field goal percentage. Like Jeremy Fears, the Wolverines’ Yaxel Lendeborg is among the top 10 players in the country in Kenpom’s player of the year standings.
RELATED: Couch: Ranking the most anticipated MSU-Michigan basketball showdowns in the Izzo era, including this one
• Matchup analysis: There are a lot of elements to this matchup that make it intriguing. To begin, you never know what a matchup looks like until you see it. For example, in 2018, MSU was the more talented roster, but could not beat Michigan. A year later, the Spartans beat a really good Michigan team three times. It was all about matchups. The Wolverines, pound for pound, 1 through 8, arguably have more advantages than anyone in the country, mostly because of their frontcourt. But MSU’s core four give the Spartans a shot any night.
Michigan’s size, and quality size, is something MSU hasn’t dealt with. Not like this. The Spartans have faced Aday Mara (at UCLA) and Morez Johnson (at Illinois) — and point guard Elliot Cadeau for that matter (at North Carolina) — but never together. Mara, at 7-foot-3, is improved from a year ago, a skilled very big man with good footwork and decent touch in the paint. The Wolverines don’t want him caught on the perimeter. They want your offense trying to play through the paint, with their big guys there waiting. That’ll be an adjustment for MSU, which often likes to live on Fears drives, either to score or lob over the top. Those lobs are going to have to have some air under them.
Johnson, one of Izzo’s favorite players dating back to last season at Illinois, is a force on the glass, capable of switching defensively and efficient around the rim on offense. But it’s 6-9 forward Yaxel Lendeborg, the Alabama-Birmingham transfer, who can be the biggest problem, playing both small and power forward. He can score at multiple levels and create off the bounce, though he’s only shooting 30% from 3 and that’s deep even more lately. He’s made 27 of them this season, taking a pretty high volume. If you’re MSU, you’ll live with him taking those. Michigan, collectively, has fallen off dramatically beyond the arc since Christmas, making just 28% of their 3s over the last nine games. That’s largely the reason the Wolverines are no longer blowing teams out.
Cadeau is a good ball-screen point guard who’s been a 41% 3-point shooter this season. He works well playing off and through Michigan’s big guys. For MSU, staying out of foul trouble — especially Fears, Kohler, Coen Carr and Carson Cooper — and winning on the glass is the key. MSU has the better point guard and, defensively, will do its best to make life a chore for Lendeborg and the big guys.
• Prediction: Izzo said it well Wednesday: The Spartans will have to be on the top of their game to win. We’ve seen them on the top of their game plenty, though. It’ll be interesting to see what this rivalry looks and feels like for a Michigan roster than has limited experience in it and whether that matters at all. I can picture MSU winning this one. But I think Michigan’s shown it has the goods to be a slight favorite, even at Breslin Center.
• Make it: Michigan 75, MSU 73
MORE: Couch: By transforming MSU Athletics, J Batt hopes to build a sustainable enterprise — and winning football
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Coch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
