Police say they are searching two properties linked to Peter Mandelson over Epstein investigation

Significant moments coming up which could be very dangerous for the PMpublished at 11:00 GMT

11:00 GMT

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

You’ve probably heard the word febrile used to describe the situation at Westminster this week. It was – and perhaps still is. But when MPs go home for the weekend, the briefing often calms down for a few days.

However, the prime minister knows he can’t breathe a sigh of relief just yet.

MPs will be speaking to constituents in the next few days to judge the anger over the Mandelson situation. If they get an earful of the doorsteps, they could return even more angry.

There are some significant moments coming up soon, which could be very dangerous for the prime minister.

Documents

There’s the publication of documents relating to Mandelson. What will they show? Will MPs be convinced the prime minister was lied to when he appointed Mandelson? Could there be more embarrassing revelations?

There’s also the Gorton and Denton by-election at the end of the month. If, as some Labour folk fear, they lose badly – will MPs decide they need to act on their leader?

Elections

Similarly, there are a raft of elections at the start of May. Labour look likely to lose Wales. They could face very difficult results in Scotland and the English local elections too. That has long been seen as a moment where the prime minister will be extremely vulnerable.

Two caveats

Firstly, there isn’t an obvious successor. There are names – Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner, maybe a caretaker of some sort. But many of them have their own baggage (Streeting was close to Mandelson, Rayner’s tax row).

Secondly – MPs don’t know exactly how they would force a change of leader. Some are nervous about the idea of a prolonged leadership campaign in an uncertain world. Others fear they might not get the leader they want – and things could get worse.

But there is no doubt Labour MPs are angry. There have been questions about Keir Starmer’s leadership for some time – the events of the past week have given them more of a sense of immediacy.