The NHL is back in the Olympics after a 12-year hiatus, minus one notable, historical member.
Russia has been banned from international play since 2022 because of its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s absence from the Olympic stage begs the question: What would a Russian Olympic hockey team look like if the country were allowed to participate in Milan?
We reached out to the smartest mind in Russian hockey, the man known as “The Professor.”
Hockey Hall of Famer Igor Larionov, head coach of SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL and famed member of the KLM line from the 1980s powerhouse Soviet national team, agreed in mid-January to create a Russian Olympic roster for The Athletic.
The fact that this was a purely hypothetical exercise wasn’t lost on Larionov, who doesn’t have to actually sweat out his omissions the way USA GM Bill Guerin or Canada GM Doug Armstrong and Sweden head coach Sam Hallam have in real life.
“I can be relaxed,’’ Larionov said. “I don’t have to worry. I have no pressure to explain everything. Obviously, I could make some changes, but at this point, I would say this is at least 85 percent of how I would do it if I were really the coach.’’
Of note, there were no KHL players on the roster he sent us.
“I’ve been working in the KHL for four years now. I don’t see anyone who could be close to the guys now playing in the NHL,’’ Larionov said. “That’s my feeling. I don’t worry about that. I’m telling you what I see. The level of decision-making of the NHL guys is just great.”
What would Team Russia look like?
Goalies
There are four outstanding options but only three can make it. Larionov went with Sergei Bobrovsky, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin and left off Ilya Sorokin.
Tough call.
“There’s only one net,’’ Larionov said. “You want to choose the best who have the winning records and experience and have won the Stanley Cup. Bob won back-to-back Cups. Shesterkin obviously is a good choice and Vasilevskiy won two Cups for Tampa. Whatever the case, whatever happens, you have a great backup goalie, you know? It’s a superstar. All three of them have won the Vezina.’’
Larionov relayed a funny story from a summer skate last July when Shesterkin showed up to take part in one but didn’t play goal.
“Shesterkin played with me on my wing,’’ he said. “I said to him, ‘What are you doing?’ He said, ‘It’s July. In August, I put my goalie gear on.’ I was setting him up and he was scoring.’’
Defensemen
There’s a blend of skill, size and experience in Larionov’s eight selections. He would have had Alexander Romanov as part of it if not for his long-term recovery from shoulder surgery. He replaced Romanov with Artem Zub.
“I put the players who have the mind, the skill and defensive ability, very high IQ, and are team players,’’ Larionov said of his blue-line group.
The smaller rink in Milan would be a welcoming place for the towering Nikita Zadorov. But it’s his hockey IQ that’s more alluring to Larionov here.
“Physicality is a big part of the game. But when you’re going against the best, if you look back to the ’87 Canada Cup, when you had the best against the best, you got to have skill, not just physicality,’’ he said. “You need the mind to take whatever it takes to play with talented players.’’
Skill trumps all in Larionov’s hockey philosophy.
“To me, offense is the most important, because the Russian way is to control the puck and to be unpredictable,’’ he said. “Defensively, they have to be smart enough to stop breakouts and feed the forwards with the right timing and right passes. That’s the key for me.”
Forwards
Larionov loves the idea of putting Montreal Canadiens rookie Ivan Demidov with the NHL’s all-time goal-scoring leader, Alex Ovechkin, on the same line.
On Demidov, Larionov sees a work ethic that’s through the roof.
“I would have him playing with Ovi on the same line; that would be special,” Larionov said. “You blend experience and speed and skill and the mind on the same line.’’
Where Larionov had a tough time was at center. So he put a winger such as Artemi Panarin in the middle, trusting his hockey IQ to adjust.
“I was struggling to find the right people in the middle, my position,” Larionov said. “To me, the mind is the key for success … it’s a key position for any team. I kind of struggled with it when I put the lines together. That’s why I put Breadman in the middle. We had an exhibition game in July in Moscow, NHL guys against KHL guys, charity game, and I told Panarin he had to play center, which was different for him. You got to use skill and mind to distribute the puck. You got to have right people on the flanks to execute his ideas.”
He included 22-year-old Fedor Svechkov as part of his forward group. He really likes Nashville’s first-round pick from the 2021 NHL Draft.
“I had him on the junior team and I like the kid very much,’’ Larionov said. “He reminds me of a player he plays with now in Nashville, Ryan O’Reilly. With the right mix of players, I think he could help the team. He’s young and responsible.’’
Larionov also included a depth guy such as Ilya Mikheyev from the Blackhawks.
“He’s a PK guy, he’s got work ethic, I have a lot of respect for guys with that work ethic and determination,’’ Larionov said. “He’s paid his dues. He would be a reliable guy on any line.’’
The end result? A team that would’ve likely been the bronze medal favorite, just a shade ahead of Sweden within the same tier. That’s based on Russia’s usual sources of strength: dynamic offense and elite goaltending.
The Russians would’ve had the best chance of upsetting Canada or the United States in any given match and would’ve had a 44.7 percent chance of medaling — and a 12.2 percent chance at gold.
How would Russia’s presence affect the tournament?
Russia’s inclusion would’ve left France out of the tournament and created interesting groups for the preliminary round. Sweden would join Canada in Group A, while Russia would join the U.S. in Group C, creating significantly more friction in both. Group B, with arguably the fifth-, sixth-, and eighth-best teams, would also offer some intrigue.
Group A
Canada
Sweden
Switzerland
Italy
Group B
Finland
Germany
Czech Republic
Denmark
Group C
Russia
USA
Slovakia
Latvia
The current groups offer a lot less suspense in comparison, with Canada winning its group 73 percent of the time and USA winning 84 percent of the time. With Russia in the tournament, those odds would’ve dropped to 66 and 64 percent, respectively.
The added uncertainty in the group stage would’ve also set the stage for more tension before the semifinal, where both Canada and USA would’ve had a 23 percent chance of being eliminated early compared to their current 16 to 18 percent. The chance of a quarterfinal meeting between the two strongest nations is one reason for that, as those odds would nearly double from 4.5 percent to 8.3 percent with Russia. That also takes away from the chance of the two meeting in the gold-medal game (down 6.6 percentage points) and increases the odds of the two nations not meeting at all (up 5.3 percentage points).
The big change, though, would be reduced medal odds all around. Canada and the U.S. would be hit hardest in goal-medal odds (roughly down four percentage points), but the biggest loss would’ve been Sweden’s chances of medaling, which would’ve taken a 13 percentage point hit.
Without Russia challenging the top of the food chain, the NHL’s return to the Olympics is going to be an easier tournament all around.
