Wednesday’s college hoops slate is a come-down from Tuesday as far as the thrill factor goes, but, nonetheless, we’ve still got many notable and intriguing matchups on tap. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Wednesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Florida at Georgia
I previewed the first matchup between these teams over a month ago, and not much has changed to make me think we’ll see a different outcome on Wednesday.
In early-January, I picked Florida when it hosted Georgia because it’s hard to overstate the Gators’ primary advantage in this matchup.
Specifically, this game features arguably the best offensive rebounding team in the nation against what is likely the weakest defensive rebounding team from a major conference.
Florida boasts the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams, while Georgia ranks 336th in defensive rebounding, and predictably ranks last among SEC teams during the conference season. It’s hard to beat Florida in general, and it’s even harder when giving up second-chance opportunities because the Gators are making 58 percent of two-point attempts against SEC opponents, the second-highest mark in the league. Georgia is allowing conference foes to make 54 percent of shots inside the arc, 10th in the SEC, so Florida will likely capitalize on any bonus possessions.
When playing in the other direction, the Bulldogs’ offense has put up respectable numbers, although they don’t have a steady threat from the perimeter, a much-needed tool when facing the Gators because of their elite frontcourt defense. Florida’s defense boasts the seventh-best adjusted efficiency rating nationally, the third-highest defensive rebounding percentage, and the seventh-best two-point field goal percentage allowed, holding opponents to 45 percent. As such, it’s no surprise to see that Florida’s defense leads the SEC in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, rebounding, and two-point field goal allowed since the conference season began.
Georgia is making only 32 percent of its three-point attempts this season, and unless it catches fire on Wednesday, I expect a similar score to the one we saw in Gainesville in January, 92-77. I’m laying the points with the Gators.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida -9.5
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South Florida at Wichita State
These two teams previously clashed in Tampa back in mid-January, with the Shockers escaping with a one-point win in overtime. A win is a win, but this one was particularly unlikely. The Bulls held a six-point lead with three minutes remaining, giving them a 95 percent chance of winning the game, per KenPom. In any event, a closer look at this matchup suggests the aforementioned lead was no accident.
Offensively, South Florida is clearly superior to Wichita State. The Bulls’ offense ranks 62nd in adjusted efficiency and 11th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they’ve played similarly well against league opponents. During the AAC conference season, South Florida’s offense ranks second in efficiency and ranks among the top four teams in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempts.
The Shockers, meanwhile, don’t have the same upside. They’re impressive on the offensive glass but have dreadful shooting percentages. Wichita State’s offense ranks 108th in adjusted efficiency; it’s making under 49 percent of two-point attempts (284th) and 67 percent of free throws (336th), hardly the marks of a good offensive team. This is great news for South Florida’s defense, which has performed relatively well against conference competition. During league play, the Bulls’ defense ranks fourth in defensive rebounding percentage and leads the conference in two-point field goal percentage allowed, holding AAC teams to under 46 percent.
Given the better offensive team and a sturdy defense, I like South Florida’s odds of getting revenge from the previous round when it had Wichita State on the ropes. For these reasons, I’m running with the Bulls on Wednesday.
College Basketball Best Bet: South Florida -1.5
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Wake Forest at Georgia Tech
What happens when a movable object meets a stoppable force? We’re about to find out.
Each team enters Wednesday on a five-game skid, and each has just two conference wins to its credit up to this point, although that’s about where the similarities end.
Offensively, Wake Forest has played substantially better than Georgia Tech. The Demon Deacons’ offense ranks 84th in adjusted efficiency, a mile ahead of the Yellow Jackets’ offense, which ranks 179th. The latter’s scoring struggles have also persisted against league opponents, with the team posting the second-worst efficiency rating in the ACC. Georgia Tech is making just 47 percent of two-point attempts against ACC teams, the third-worst mark in the league, and it ranks last in turnover percentage, further underscoring an ineffective offensive unit. The latter might spell the most trouble, as Wake Forest ranks 29th in defensive turnover percentage, including the fourth-best mark in the ACC during conference play.
Speaking of the Demon Deacons’ defense, it also has a better adjusted efficiency ranking than Georgia Tech’s, ranking 84th vs. 114th for the home team. The Yellow Jackets have solid defensive numbers for the season, but it’s important to note they played the fifth-easiest non-conference schedule among all 365 D-1 teams, per KenPom. Their defensive numbers don’t look nearly as sharp against league opponents. During the conference season, Georgia Tech’s defense ranks 12th or lower among ACC teams in efficiency, turnover percentage, rebounding percentage, and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
There’s a chance Wake Forest gets torched on defense, but I’m betting its offense will carry the Demon Deacons to victory when the dust finally settles. I’m taking Wake Forest in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wake Forest -2.5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here’s a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Florida -9.5
- South Florida -1.5
- Wake Forest -2.5
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