Sean Barnard details his pick and prediction for the Belmont Bruins at Murray State Racers college basketball matchup.
The Belmont Bruins will face off with the Murray State Racers as part of the Sunday college basketball slate. These two teams sit in first and second place in the Missouri Valley Conference this season.
These two sides faced off once already this year, which resulted in a 103-86 victory by Belmont. This matchup took place just over two weeks ago on January 31st. Belmont pushed the lead to as high as 34 and shot 50% from beyond the three-point arc in the matchup.
Looking at the odds for today, Murray State enters as a 1.5-point favorite with -122 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Belmont holds +102 odds of winning outright, and the game total is set at 166.5 points.
Belmont at Murray State prediction, preview
The Belmont Bruins hold a 23-4 record on the season, and have gone 13-3 in Missouri Valley Conference play. Their four losses have come against Richmond, Indiana State, Southern Illinois, and Bradley. They enter this matchup coming off a victory over Northern Iowa in the previous game, and have won 10 of their last 11. On the season, Belmont has gone 14-11-1 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 15 of their 26 qualifying games.
Casey Alexander’s squad is averaging 83.7 points per game which ranks 38th in the country. Belmont also ranks 49th in offensive rating, fourth in team field goal percentage, fifth in team three-point percentage, and generates the 14th-most assists per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 72.7 points per game against the Bruins, which ranks 147th in the country. They also rank 81st in defensive rating, 24th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 173rd in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Tyler Lundblade leads the conference with 34.4 minutes per game, and is posting averages of 16.1 points and 2.6 rebounds, while shooting 39.6% from beyond the three-point arc. Sam Orme adds 12.6 points and 5.3 rebounds, while Drew Scharnowski provides a team-high 6.3 rebounds and 11.1 points per game. Nic McClain is the lone other player to average in double figures, along with 6.3 assists and 4.3 rebounds. Jabez Jenkins, Jack Smiley, Eoin Dillon, and Brigham Rogers also play key roles in the rotation.
Murray State enters with a 19-8 record on the season, and has gone 11-5 in conference play. They are coming off a victory over Indiana State in the previous game, but have dropped five of their last eight. On the season overall, the Racers have gone 14-13 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 15 of the 27 games played.
Murray State scores at the 26th-best rate in the country, averaging 84.9 points per game. Ryan Miller’s squad also ranks 56th in offensive rating, 74th in field goal percentage, and 139th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 79.2 points per game, which ranks 318th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. The Racers also rank 255th in defensive rating, 301st in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 287th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Javon Jackson leads the team with 16.5 points per game, along with 2.9 assists and 2.4 rebounds. Roman Domon primarily comes off the bench, but is second on the team in scoring with 13.9 points per game and 5.0 rebounds, while shooting 39.3% from the perimeter. Fredrick King is the lone other player to average in double figures, posting averages of 13.7 points and a Missouri Valley-leading 8.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game. Layne Taylor, JJ Trainer, Mason Miller, and Brayden Shorter also play important roles on the rotation.
Belmont at Murray State pick, best bet
My lean is toward Belmont winning outright in the matchup. They did not have trouble with this Murray State team in the first matchup, and this gap felt more significant than just playing on the road will fix. Murray State has hit some recent struggles, while Belmont has not lost in regulation since January 4th. However, I am backing the game total to go over the 166.5 line.
This is a high total, but for good reason. These are two of the top offenses in the country that each have some defensive concerns. Belmont ranks 38th in the league in scoring at 83.7 points per game, and has scored 100+ points twice in their past five games. On the other side of the matchup, Murray State ranks 26th in the country by scoring 84.9 points per game. They have scored as many as 115 points in a game this season, and also allowed 100+ points in four games this season.
During the first matchup between these two teams, the game total finished at 189 and went comfortably over the 163.5 line in this matchup. There was also room for additional offensive improvement, as Belmont shot 68% at the free-throw line and Murray State connected on just 26% of their three-point attempts.
Belmont ranks 362nd in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed, and Murray State is 51st in three-point attempts per game. Expect them to have more success than the 6-for-23 they shot from deep in the first matchup.
These are two of the most productive offenses in the conference that will be ready to go head-to-head. Count on both teams bringing their best offensive effort and capitalizing on the favorable matchups each week that defense provides. Expect both sides to have some offensive success and for the game total to go over 166.5 for the second consecutive matchup between these two teams.
Best Bet: Game Total Over 166.5 Points (-108)
