(TL;DR/Spoiler Alert Folks — I know this is a long post below so if you need the short version, here’s the TL;DR “gotta run” version: Some snow showers possible each night and morning through at least Friday around the Western Washington lowlands, with sporadic and minor accumulations possible.)
Snow is, for the first time this winter, legitimately in the forecast. But sorry to say for snow fans, it’s not the most exciting snow forecast we could bring you.
If you were to look at the overall pattern this week and rated the snow potential from 1-10, 1 being like “every day this lame winter so far” and 10 being like “we’re about to be South Canada and you’re already too late to panic buy bread and milk”, I’d rate this a 3*.
(*- Maybe I need to make this snow rating a thing? Call it the “WATBSCAYATLTPBB&M” Scale?**)
(**- I think I just heard a marketing major faint…)
Anyway, like most Seattle snow events, when you just simply want moisture and cold air to gather together and make the forecast a slam dunk, we’re usually short on one or the other. And it’s no different this time, as moisture, surprisingly, is the bugaboo this week.
It was a sunny Sunday, but a broad and cool trough of low pressure is dropping down from the Alaska Panhandle Sunday night and will skirt the B.C. coastline until it settles in a fair distance off our coast for much of the week.
GOES-18 Satellite image from Feb. 15 showing broad area of low pressure over Alaska Panhandle heading southeast along B.C. coast.
It’s bringing along some of the coldest air when we’ve had also moisture around this winter — it helps when not every storm is all atmospheric-rivery and is coming from the warm tropics.
The difference is instead of widespread soaking waves of moisture that last for hours/days, these type of troughs are going bring a cool and unstable atmosphere that will not have widespread moisture, but instead be more convective and spotty in nature.
Think of like spring days when it’s our classic “showers and sun breaks” — it’s sunny, then boom! You’re hit with a soaking shower that passes in 10-20 mins.
Only in this case, it could be a rain/snow mix, or even just straight snow, depending on how intense the shower is, what time of day it is (obviously cooler at night/early morning) and your elevation (higher the better for snow.)
That means a lot of snow winners and snow losers.
MONDAY MORNING: A FEW SNOWFLAKE SIGHTINGS BUT OVERALL.. MEH
The cooling process will get underway Sunday night to where even by Monday morning we’re into low-ish snow levels of about 1,000 feet. The cold air isn’t all the way here yet so while we may see some rain/snow mix in some showers or even brief all snow showers, we’re still pretty fringey so I don’t expect any impacts Monday morning.
Temps still warm into the 40s during the day so we shift back to rain in any showers during the daylight hours. But colder air continues to seep in during the day into Monday night.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING… A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES
By Tuesday morning, snow levels are expected to down around 200-500 feet where they’ll roughly stay for the week, and could hit sea level in any kind of intense showers, which with the unstable atmosphere, we very well could have.
The only problem? It’ll again be very hit-and-miss.
ECMWF 12 hour snowfall accumulation animation showing the hit-and-miss variety of snow showers this week.
It’ll depend on how far offshore the trough sets up — the farther it is from shore, the less moisture available for showers (in that sense, those of you closer to the coast will have more showers than the Puget Sound region). Where the showers roam, we could see brief bursts of snow with quick accumulations, but then it’ll start melting as soon as the shower passes and the temperatures recover. But it could make for sudden treacherous travel if you’re on a freeway when one of those snow showers hit as it could quickly coat roads and drop visibility.
So what we have: potential for hit-and-miss snow showers that could cause sudden but temporary travel issues, especially in the overnight and early morning (commute) hours.
What we do NOT expect:
- Widespread snows that blanket entire regions with multiple inches of accumulation (snowmen? Probably not many…)
- Ultra freezing temperatures as highs will still reach the 40s. (Overnight temps could drop to around 30-32 in Seattle at the coldest parts of the night/morning)
- I’d say we don’t expect a lot of school cancelations either though many kids are already on some variation of mid winter break this week. Those that do have school later this week may sneak in a few delays.
Remember that map I posted in my Facebook feed yesterday with my snark about Everett having a 1% chance of snow:
— that was for at least 1 inch accumulation so you can see we’ll be hard-pressed for much of accumulations.
HOW THE SCRIPT WILL PROBABLY GO:
It’s 7:30 a.m. Tuesday. It’s about 34-35 degrees out. It’s chilly but calm and dry and you’re cursing Scott for getting your hopes up. Suddenly the trees rustle a bit and the clouds start to lower. Soon, a few flakes start to fall. Then more. Then: OMG, IT’S SNOWING!
A virtual snow globe scene fills the sky. It’s not sticking much to the ground ‘cause it’s warm, but maybe your car and grass is turning white. THIS IS SO AMAZING! I CAN’T WAIT TO BUILD A SNOWMAN.
People on nearby roads and freeways are like “AAAAHHH WHAT IS THIS? I MUST GET OFF THE ROADS BUT QUICK DETOUR TO THE STORE TO GET BREAD AND MILK! SCOTT DIDN’T HAVE THIS AS A 10 ON HIS WATBSCAYATLTPBB&M SCALE!”
Meanwhile, you’re in winter bliss for about 15-20 minutes, then the snow intensity starts to fade, you drift back to flurries and soon, the snow stops and the skies brighten and maybe even the sun comes out. You hear the unmistakable sound of water trickling into the gutters in your house of what little snow is already melting. An hour later, it’s all gone… Until it happens again 3 hours later.
This trough looks to just hang out offshore for much of the week, keeping random rain/mix/snow showers in the forecast through about Friday or so and then maybe some mild warming into the weekend.
SOME OF THE WILD CARDS:
- We may get a little bit of Fraser outflow on Wednesday and Thursday which will add a little more chill — especially Whatcom County — and there could be a little snow in the North Sound along the boundary where that cooler air flows south.
- Areas along the coast and Olympic Peninsula will be closer to the trough and may have more showers available
- Also areas along the Olympic foothills may get some upslope-snow effects like along the Hood Canal
Q&A
Q: “Yeah, but will it snow at my house?”
A: Maybe
Q: “But what if I wish for it really hard?
A: Maybe-er
Q: “If it snows, will it be enough to build a snowman?”
A: Probably not, but maybe
Q: “Should I go and get milk and bread?”
A: Too late, apparently.
MORE TO EXPLORE:
29%
54%
8%
8%
0%
Post navigation
