A new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of the primary for Governor finds Republican Steve Hilton leading the field at 17%, followed by Rep. Eric Swalwell at 14%, Sheriff Chad Bianco at 14%, former Rep. Katie Porter at 10%, and Tom Steyer at 9%. Twenty-one percent are undecided. Since December, support for Hilton and Steyer increased by five points, support for Swalwell increased by two points, and support for Porter decreased by one point.
“The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton (38%) and Chad Bianco (37%), while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voter support at 22%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate: 23% of Democrats support Eric Swalwell, 14% support Porter, 12% Steyer and 22% are undecided.”
Governor Gavin Newsom’s approval rating is at 44%, while 45% disapprove of the job the Governor is doing. This reflects a three-point decrease in Newsom’s approval rating since the December survey, and a six-point increase in disapproval. President Donald Trump has a 62% disapproval rating among California voters, while 32% approve of the job he is doing.
Senator Alex Padilla has a 42% approval rating among California voters and a 32% disapproval; in comparison, 35% approve of the job Adam Schiff is doing as senator while 40% disapprove.
A majority of voters (53%) say they have considered leaving California because of the cost of living in the state, while 47% have not.
When asked what the single biggest strain on their household budget at the moment is, 28% note housing, 21% utilities, 17% groceries, and 9% healthcare. Eleven percent experience no real strain on their household budget.
A plurality of California voters (47%) oppose data centers being built in or near their community, while 24% support their construction.
Opposition to data centers increases with voters’ educational attainment: 29% of those with a high school degree oppose data centers, 58% of those with a college degree, and 62% of those with a postgraduate degree oppose.
The economy is the top issue for 37% of California voters, up three points from December. Nineteen percent think housing affordability is the top issue facing California, 16% threats to democracy, 8% immigration, 6% healthcare, and 5% crime.
Voters were asked if they prefer the Trump or Biden administration’s policies on immigration: 41% prefer Biden’s policies, 38% Trump’s, and 21% neither.
Voters were also asked about this year’s Winter Olympics in Milan and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles. Regarding this year’s Olympics, 19% are very interested, 50% somewhat interested, and 32% not interested at all. Regarding the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles, 34% are very interested, 40% somewhat interested, and 26% not interested at all.
Methodology
The Emerson College California survey was conducted February 13-14, 2026. The sample of California likely voters, n=1,000, has a margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, and education based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text and email, voter lists provided by Aristotle. The survey was offered in English. Additional panel responses were collected via PureSpectrum, matched to the voter file.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below. The survey is sponsored by Nexstar Media / Emerson College.
