Winter’s not done with us yet: Here’s the timing of Friday’s wintry mess as we track a storm threat Monday
Let’s break down both storm systems to help you prepare:
Storm No. 1: Friday’s system to intensify in the afternoon and evening
This storm will have more pop, but still will wind up as a relatively minor storm.
The system will enter New England from the southwest by mid-morning and make its way to Boston by the early afternoon. Temperatures will be warm enough for Boston and areas south of the Mass Pike to see a wintry mix or cold rain during most of this storm, while folks north of the Pike will see plowable snow.
Snow could pile up a bit across Massachusetts, especially north of the Pike, after a slow changeover from the wintry mix or rain as temps get colder into the night. I have Boston getting between 1 and 3 inches by noon on Saturday. Northern New England will see some decent snow totals up to 6 to 8 inches. There will be some minor ice across Southern New England, away from the coast, for Saturday morning. Wind will once again be negligible with this system.
The forecast snow totals across Boston for Friday into Saturday.Boston GlobeThis storm will bring a mix of snow, ice, sleet, and rain to New England throughout Friday and linger into Saturday.Boston Globe
Here’s the setup: A warm front will stretch east across New England early Friday, bringing a light precipitation shield while temperatures warm up above freezing across Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.
Here’s when the storm is expected to arrive in your area:
• 6 to 8 a.m.: Southwestern Connecticut.
• 8 to 11 a.m.: Western Mass., much of Rhode Island, Southern Vermont, and Central and Eastern Connecticut.
• 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.: Eastern Mass., including Boston, Cape Cod, and the islands. Most of New Hampshire and portions of Central and Northern Vermont.
• 2 p.m. to 5 p.m.: Northern New Hampshire and most of Maine.
Storm arrival timing on Friday across New England.Boston Globe
Precipitation will then intensify during the afternoon and evening, before slowly tapering off overnight Friday.
The storm forecast as of noon on Friday.Boston Globe
The evening commute could prove challenging. When you’re heading home from work on Friday, make sure you take your time because we’ll see some steady precipitation falling across Greater Boston and most of New England.
The storm forecast as of 5 p.m. on Friday.Boston Globe
A secondary low is expected to form over or near the Gulf of Maine by Friday night that may boost the amount of rain and snow.
For folks seeing snow, this means spurts of intense snowfall rates, while steady rain could be possible for those south of the rain-snow line. All-in-all, this is why we will likely wind up with higher rain and snow totals across the board.
The storm forecast as of 10 p.m. on Friday.Boston Globe
Friday’s highs are set to reach the mid- to upper 30s, which will keep areas along the Mass Pike, including Boston and the south, held to a wintry mix or cold rain for most of this storm. It won’t be until after the sun goes down on Friday that Boston and along the Mass Pike will see some accumulating snow.
Overnight lows should sink to the mid- to upper 20s, allowing for some wet flakes to fall across Southern New England.
The rain-snow line as of 2 pm. on Friday.Boston Globe
Then the rain-snow line will gradually sink southward Friday evening and into the night, where some accumulation is possible. I have Boston somewhere between 1 and 3 inches by noon on Saturday.
The rain-snow line as of 7 a.m. on Saturday.Boston Globe
Folks across Northern New England can expect snow from the beginning of this storm, with totals likely building to 3 to 6 inches with a scattering of 6- to 8-inch totals in parts of Central Vermont, New Hampshire, and Western Maine.
- 6 to 8 inches: Central Vermont and New Hampshire, including Concord and Plymouth; Rutland, Vt., and Western Maine.
- 3 to 6 inches: North of Route 2 and I-495 in Massachusetts; Portland, Manchester, Keene, and Bennington, Vt.; Augusta, Maine area.
- 1 to 3 inches: Greater Boston, the South Shore to about Scituate, Worcester, Springfield; northern Rhode Island and Connecticut; Bangor, Maine area.
- Coating to 1 inch: South Shore, Providence, Hartford, Outer Cape.
- Rain or wintry mix: Entire southern coast of New England, including most of the Cape and the islands.
The weekend itself will be relatively quiet. Scattered snow showers will linger through Saturday morning as the storm exits and backside snow showers taper off.
We saw a couple of black icy spots early Thursday morning when rain and sleet froze overnight, and we’ll deal with it again Saturday morning across all of Southern New England, with areas west of I-495 seeing a bit more trouble spots. So be careful when you head out the door to grab your Dunkin’s on Saturday morning.
Freezing rain may lead to some slick spots across Southern New England, especially late Friday into Saturday morning.Boston Globe
But by Saturday afternoon, skies will thin out with the snow wrapping up. Some sun could peek through the clouds in the afternoon. Highs will be held to the low 30s on Saturday across most of New England, with a few spots reaching the mid-30s.
After morning snow showers, the region dries out in the afternoon.Boston Globe
Sunday should be mostly quiet with a few snow showers popping up, with no accumulation expected. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a few cracks of sunshine during the day. Highs on Sunday will likely reach the mid-30s across Southern New England.
Storm No. 2: A direct hit, a brush, or a complete miss?
This forecast will sharpen up over the next couple of days, but we’re still trending more of a miss or a brushing of a coastal storm that’s set to form off the Carolina coast early Sunday and move up the Eastern Seaboard toward New England. We likely won’t see bombogenesis with this system, where pressure drops 24 millibars within 24 hours, but this storm may get close.
Timing is still up in the air, but the storm should approach our region overnight Sunday to early Monday morning.
Whether Boston sees an impactful snowstorm will come down to how this coastal storm interacts with another area of low pressure sliding into New England from the west. Will the coastal storm gets tugged closer to shore?
Another factor to keep a close watch on is how much high pressure builds by Monday over the Northern Atlantic. A strong high usually means the coastal storm could slow and regress closer to shore.
I say all of that to say this: I do not see this storm turning into a full-blown, direct-hitting nor’easter. But I feel like a complete miss or a brushing of snow from Providence to Boston and areas southeast are more probable.
Let’s take a look at the latest Globe HQ model, the Euro, and the GFS:
The Globe Weather HQ model suggests a complete miss on Monday.Boston GlobeThe European model shows a near complete miss of a coastal storm on Monday.Pivotal WeatherThe GFS is showing nearly a direct hit, with the storm clipping Southeastern New England and bringing some heavy snow.Pivotal Weather
Storm models and snowfall
Now let’s peek at the Euro-AI, the standard Euro, the GFS, UKMet, and ICON models for snowfall totals. It doesn’t take long to notice the differences.
Naturally, with the GFS tracking closer to the coast, it shows us the worst-case scenario for snow totals, with up to a foot of snow for Boston and 20 inches on the Cape! Let’s be clear: I don’t think this is going to happen. What is more likely would be the Euro-AI or ICON, in which Boston to Providence picks up 2 to 4 inches, with the Cape seeing 4 to 8 inches.
Monday storm snow totals between five models: Euro-AI, Euro, GFS, ICON, and UKMET.Pivotal Weather
There are way too many variables to provide confident snowfall totals this far out. As of now, I don’t think we’ll get to those worst-case amounts, but stay tuned!
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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.
