Wednesday’s men’s quarterfinal hockey games at the 2026 Olympics will go down in history as one of the most entertaining days in the history of the tournament. With three of the four games ending in overtime, diehard fans from Canada, Finland and the USA are relieved to see their countries advance to the semifinal, while Team Slovakia had a much easier time dispatching Germany in their 6-2 victory.
Ahead of the semifinal Friday, here’s another brief scouting notebook from the men’s Olympic hockey tournament in Italy:
I’ve heard some noise surrounding Auston Matthews’ play at this tournament and I’m not convinced people who are poking holes in his game at the Olympics aren’t just looking for something to be unhappy about.
USA’s captain leads their team in scoring with 3G-3A. He’s averaged around 15 minutes of ice time at even strength and slots into the Americans’ top power play unit in the bumper position. The Americans are a deep team and, in my opinion, Matthews has played to his identity. He assisted on Quinn Hughes’ overtime goal in the quarters versus Sweden and has generally helped extend plays in traffic. Matthews has also won 57 per cent of his faceoffs in the tournament.
If I want to be hyper-critical of Matthews, I suppose I would like to see more pure determination physically, a la Connor McDavid running over opponents for Team Canada. But at a best-on-best tournament, Matthews has played to his identity. What more can I ask for from him?
The Slovakian hockey federation has been evolving for several years. They are led by former NHL player Miroslav Satan, who has done a wonderful job of constructing a development system that is producing high-end NHL players and notoriety on the international stage.
Slovakia has a population of less than six million people and, as of the most recently provided data, have less than 11,000 boys and men’s hockey players registered in their entire system. For comparison, the Greater Toronto Hockey League (GTHL) has over 7,000 players competing in the Toronto region alone this season.
Team Slovakia is being led by Montreal Canadiens forward Juraj Slafkovsky and he’s going to be the face of hockey in his native land for years to come. Slafkovsky is averaging between 20-22 minutes per game in ice time depending on special teams. All of his ice time has come at even strength and the power play. Slafkovsky attracts attention with his combination of size, strength and skill. He’s been heavy on the puck and extends plays along the boards. He leads the Slovaks with 3G-4A and he’s playing with reliable detail defensively.
It’s a fun time to be a Montreal Canadiens fan. Their management group recognizes how important it is for their core players to gain as much experience in high-leverage games as possible as they track towards being a Stanley Cup-contending organization. Watching Slafkovsky and fellow Hab Nick Suzuki contribute at the Olympics has to be exciting for their group.
Dalibor Dvorsky is another Slovakian forward who has caught my eye. The St. Louis Blues sniper leans shooter more than playmaker and tends to produce in streaks. He’s contributed 3G-3A at the Olympics and, like Slafkovsky, is being deployed at even strength and the power play.
When scouting players in Europe, the inevitable conversation about the size of the ice surface becomes a talking point, especially if a player tends to play the game from the outside/perimeter instead of the middle of the ice.
Dvorsky has scored three goals for Slovakia at the Olympics, and been credited with 14 shots on goal. The chart below displays the conventional width of an NHL ice surface compared to the width of the surface in Europe. Dvorsky knows he owns a lethal shot and he’s working hard to direct the majority of those shots on net from mid-to-high-danger scoring areas.
Nashville Predators goalie Jusse Saros has started every game for Team Finland so far and Canada’s Jordan Binnington is coming off a game that saw him make several huge saves in an overtime win over Czechia. I’m assuming they will be the starters in the semifinal match-up on Friday.
Saros has posted a 1.49 GAA and .938 SV% in his four starts compared to Binnington’s 1.65 GAA and .922 SV% in his three starts.
With both goalies playing the way they are, their opponents will be working to get more traffic in front of the netminders and crash the crease hunting for loose pucks and second-chance scoring opportunities. Saros and Binnington tend to get a bit “active” at times in terms of their crease composure. In other words, there are moments in games when they both “track” outside their posts or end up outside the blue paint making saves. The way these goalies control their rebounds will be key to their success.
With that in mind, here’s an interesting statistic I unearthed from the last three games both goalies have played in Italy:
• Saros has faced 75 total shots on goal, Binnington has faced 62 shots
• 16 of the 75 shots Saros has faced have come as a result of a rebound; 10 of Binnington’s 62 shots against have been a result of a rebound.
I’m curious to see how composed each goalie is under duress in the semifinal. As everyone knows, uncontested second-chance scoring opportunities can lead to goals against.
