After a short, one-week hiatus, UFC fight week is back, which means so are the weekly predictions. This Saturday, the UFC will return to Houston, Texas, for the first time in just over four years, and they are bringing with them a 14-fight card main-evented by former UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland and rising star Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez.
Outside of the main event, the rest of the main card features ranked veterans like Geoff Neal, Dan Ige, and Serghei Spivac, along with more budding talents like Melquizael Costa, Uros Medic, and Jacobe Smith.
The UFC seems to have done a good job at putting together a quality fight night card for the Houston crowd; they will get to see both high-quality fights and some local talent.
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When and Where is UFC Houston?
UFC Houston: Strickland vs. Hernandez will take place on Saturday, February 21st, at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
What Time Does UFC Houston Start?
The prelims for UFC Houston will begin at 5:00 PM EST, while the main card is set to begin at 8:00 PM EST.
UFC Houston Predictions
This article will give a prediction for every fight on the card, along with any applicable betting advice.
Carli Judice (5-2) (-850) vs. Julianna Miller (4-3) (+500)
Pick: Carli Judice
The odds are wide for this fight, considering that both of these women have only seven professional fights and are both 2-2 in either the UFC or Dana White’s Contender Series.
With that being said, Judice being the favorite is understandable, although maybe not to this degree.
Miller’s only shot at beating Judice is by winning a grimy decision, but that doesn’t appear to be the most likely outcome. Judice is going to be faster and a much better striker, which should allow her to evade clinch situations for any extended period of time while piling up damage.
Eventually, that damage will be too much for Miller to overcome. The pick is Judice by late-fight KO/TKO, but this is one to stay away from when betting.
Yadier Del Valle (10-0) (-400) vs. Jordan Leavitt (12-3) (+285)
Pick: Yadier Del Valle
This is going to be really bad for Jordan Leavitt. Don’t get me wrong, Leavitt is a fun watch, but he is entirely reliant on his opponent being a bad grappler; if they aren’t, he is going to lose.
Yadie Del Valle has proven to be just as good, if not better than Leavitt on the ground, and he is the far better striker.
Del Valle is going to look to keep this standing as long as possible and punish Leavitt. Eventually, he is going to land the shot that puts Leavitt down, where he can finish him off by either TKO or lock in a submission of his own.
Del Valle is the rightful favorite in this fight, but the odds aren’t bettor friendly, so stay away from this one.
Jean-Paul Lebasnoyani (9-2) (-215) vs. Phil Rowe (11-6) (+165)
Pick: Jean-Paul Lebasnoyani
Best Bet: Jean-Paul Lebasnoyani ML (-215)
Phil Rowe is like the free version of Kevin Holland. He has immense talent and physical gifts, yet can never seem to come close to fulfilling his potential.
In this fight, he will be both more experienced than Jean-Paul Lebasnoyani and have an 8.5-inch reach advantage, yet the pick is still against him.
In recent memory, every time Rowe has gone up against a quality UFC fighter, he has found a way to lose the fight. This comes down to whether or not you think Jean-Paul Lebasnoyani is a decent UFC-caliber fighter, and to me, he is. Lebasnoyani is going to have the better game plan, and that has been enough to beat Rowe in the best, so the bet is that it carries over here.
Ramiz Brahimaj (13-5) (-135) vs. Punahele Soriano (12-4) (+105)
Pick: Punahele Soriano
Best Bet: Punahele Soriano ML (+105)
Both Ramiz Brahimaj and Punahele Soriano are looking to continue their unlikely career resurgence at welterweight, and the pick is that Soriano will be the one to do so. These two are kind of opposites of each other in the sense that Brahimaj is a grappler who has improved his striking, while Soriano is the opposite.
The reason that the pick is with Soriano is that the most noticeable advantage is Soriano’s striking, specifically his power. If this were the same Soriano who looked lost on the mat at middleweight, the pick would be the other way, but recently, he has actually been able to use grappling to help him win fights. Soriano should hold his own on the mat while doing more damage on the feet, earning him the win.
Nora Cornolle (9-3) (+250) vs. Joselyne Edwards (16-6) (-340)
Pick: Joselyne Edwards
This is a rematch from only about two-and-a-half years ago, which Nora Corolle narrowly won. Since then, the momentum shift has been noticeable as Joselyne Edwards has won her last three fights all by finish, while Cornolle has lost two of her last three.
Edwards is clearly a better fighter than she was in 2023, and Cornolle barely won that fight. Now Cornolle has aged and may be worse than she was then, making Edwards the easy pick. Edwards’ takedown defense has drastically improved, and her striking has gotten more powerful, leading the pick to be that she does the majority of the damage in this fight and wins a decision.
Alden Coria (11-3) (-310) vs. Luis Gurule (10-2) (+230)
Pick: Alden Coria
This is another fight where momentum speaks volumes. Luis Gurule has looked solid in his two UFC performances, but has found ways to lose both of them, while Alden Coria has won his last four fights all by finish.
It’s tough to find a way for Gurule to come out on top here, considering he is clearly the worst striker of the two and doesn’t have the grappling credentials to dominate this fight on the mat. The pick here is that Coria picks apart Gurule for most of the fight and at some point finds a knockout in front of a home crowd.
Ode Osbourne (13-9) (+110) vs. Alibi Idiris (10-1) (-140)
Pick: Alibi Idiris
Best Bet: Alibi Idirs ML (-140)
On paper, this fight clearly favors Ode Osbourne, but much like a fighter from earlier on this card, Phil Rowe, Osbourne finds ways to lose fights he should win. Osbourne is most definitely the better striker between these two, but he is also far and away the worst grappler.
Osbourne struggles mightily with his takedown defense, and if there is one thing Alibir Idirs does well, it’s wrestling. The expectation is that unless Osbourne has improved his defensive grappling, Idiris is going to make this a boring wrestling match, resulting in a decision win.
Chidi Njoukuani (25-11) (+110) vs. Carlos Leal (22-7) (-140)
Pick: Chidi Njoukuani
Best Bet: Chidi Njokuani ML (+110)
Before diving into the analysis here, I want to preface by saying there has been some odd line movement over the last 10 days that closely resembles fights that have been removed from events recently. This breakdown will put that aside and give a brief pick disregarding the line movement.
Carlos Leal has the power to beat anyone in the UFC, but his movement is going to be what keeps him from ever climbing the ranks of this division. Whenever Leal has faced a kickboxer with better speed than him, he has struggled to find a home for his power. That very well may be the story of this fight.
When Njoukuani has had time to use his range effectively, he has been able to come out on top in fights; it has only been when he has faced someone who has threatened him with takedowns that he has lost. Leal is going to want to keep this fight on its feet, which will play into the benefit of Njoukuani. It is always possible Leal finds the chin of Njoukuani, but the pick is that the length of Njoukani is too much for Leal to overcome, resulting in a Njoukani decision win.
Zach Reese (10-2) (+125) vs. Michel Pereira (31-14) (-160)
Pick: Michel Pereira
Best Bet: Michel Pereira ML (-160)
These odds only make sense if Michel Pereira has lost all of his durability, because skill-for-skill, this fight isn’t very competitive. Pereira is the better Muay Thai striker, offensive grappler, and has far more high-level experience, while there isn’t seemingly anything Zach Reese does better than Pereira.
It is possible that Pereira’s chin is broken, and Reese only needs one clean shot to win this, but at this point, the skill gap between the two seems too wide. Reese has struggled with pressure in his UFC career, which is exactly what Pereira will bring, leading to a bounce-back Pereira victory to start the main card.
Jacobe Smith (11-0) (-310) vs. Josiah Harrell (11-0) (+230)
Pick: Jacobe Smith
Next up is a classic “someone’s O has got to go” fight where Jacobe Smith and Josiah Harrell look to remain undefeated. Since both men are undefeated through 11 professional bouts each, they are both very talented fighters, but Smith just seems a level above to this point.
In his UFC debut, Smith showed he has the power to knock people out, but his bread and butter is his grappling. He is a great wrestler who does violent work when he gets it there, which is exactly how this fight will go. Smith is going to get this fight to the mat, and when he does, Harell is going to get punished until the fight is stopped.
Serghei Spivac (17-6) (+125) vs. Ante Delija (26-7) (-160)
Pick: Ante Delija
Best Bet: Ante Delija by KO/TKO (+115)
We have gotten to the point where it is known that if Serghei Spivac can’t take his opponent down, he is going to lose as long as his opponent is top-15 quality. In this case, Delija fits that mold.
Delija has serviceable defensive grappling and is a far better striker than Spivac. As long as Delija doesn’t come out gun shy, this is an easy fight to read. As soon as the fight starts Delija should come out firing knowing that Spivac doesn’t handle pressure particularly well. If he does this fight will be over before the first horn sounds.
Dan Ige (19-10) (+165) vs. Melquizael Costa (25-7) (-215)
Pick: Melquizael Costa
There aren’t many better fights to make in the featherweight division than this one. Dan Ige and Melquizael Costa are both absolute warriors and are surely going to lay it all out on the line here. Ige has been in there with the best of them, and if I hadn’t just seen his last fight against Patricio Pitbull, he might be the pick, but that looked like a declining version of Ige against Pitbull. He was far more defensive, struggled to initiate exchanges, and even got caught a few times by Pitbull, who is significantly older and slower than Costa.
On the side of Costa, there aren’t many fighters who have more momentum than him right now, as he went 4-0 in 2025 and is coming off one of the best knockouts of the year in his win over Morgan Charriere. It will be tough for him to repeat that against Ige, considering he has never been finished in his MMA career, but the pick is still that Costa is quicker to the punch and does more damage, resulting in his sixth straight win.
Geoff Neal (16-7) (-230) vs. Uros Medic (12-3) (+175)
Pick: Geoff Neal
Best Bet: Geoff Neal by KO/TKO or Decision (-190)
If any fight is not making it to the judges’ scorecards, it’s this one. Uros Medic is the definition of “kill or be killed”, but in this fight, I think he ends up falling victim to the latter half of this phrase. In his last three fights, Uros Medic is 2-1 with a violent knockout loss to Punahele Soriano and a win over Gilbert Urbina, where he got dropped hard within the first minute. Geoff Neal is a lot better than Gilbert Urbina, and if Neal is in the shape he has recently said he is in, this is going to be scary for Medic.
There is always a possibility that after suffering the knockout loss to Carlos Prates, Neal’s durability has declined and he ends up getting knocked out by Medic, but since he hasn’t been finished by someone of Medic’s level, that can’t be the pick. Neal has the hand speed and power to put Medic out cold, and that is exactly the pick here: Neal by first-round knockout.
Sean Strickland (29-7) (+230) vs. Anthony Hernandez (15-2) (-310)
Pick: Sean Strickland
This is an incredible main event between a former UFC champion and someone who has been nothing but dominant over the last few years. For Sean Strickland, this is his first appearance since losing his middleweight title rematch about a year ago, and for Anthony Hernandez, he is looking for his ninth win in a row and earning a claim for a title shot against Khamzat Chimaev. If either of these two were fighting Chimaev, only Hernandez would have a viable chance at winning that fight, but MMA math isn’t linear, so the pick between these two is on the side of Strickland.
Hernandez is known for dragging his opponents into deep waters and breaking them with dominant grappling, but he is going against an opponent who has a similar gameplan. Strickland is also a fighter who relies on breaking his opponent down, but he does it with striking instead of grappling. This is not the kind of fighter that Hernandez is used to facing, especially considering we have yet to see Strickland controlled on the ground for a significant length of time.
If Hernandez comes out and does exactly what he has been doing as of late, and Strickland’s year-long layoff makes him look rusty, that won’t be surprising, especially considering Hernandez’s momentum and the wide betting line. The problem with that is how much of a new challenge this is for Hernandez. Strickland is an incredibly difficult fighter to prepare for, and his experience against the best in the division should have him as prepared as possible for this fight. The pick is that Strickland survives the grappling exchanges, and as the fight goes on, he turns it more and more into his typical style of fight. The pick is that this ends in a close decision where Strickland narrowly pulls off the win.
UFC Houston Key Information:
Who is favored in Strickland vs Hernandez?
Anthony Hernandez is favored due to his wrestling pressure, grappling control, and recent momentum
at middleweight.
Is This a Striker vs Grappler Matchup?
Yes. Sean Strickland prefers technical striking and range control, while Anthony Hernandez relies on
wrestling, takedowns, and top pressure.
Which fights On the Card Have Knockout Potential?
Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic and Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija carry strong knockout upside due to
power striking on both sides.
How Could Sean Strickland Win This Fight?
Strickland wins by maintaining distance, stuffing takedowns, controlling pace with his jab, and forcing
extended striking exchanges.
How Could Anthony Hernandez Win This Fight?
Hernandez wins by closing distance early, securing takedowns, controlling top position, and wearing
Strickland down over five rounds.
Where is UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez Taking Place?
The event takes place in Houston, Texas.
Is the Main Event Scheduled for Five Rounds?
Yes. As the headline bout, the fight is scheduled for five rounds under standard UFC main event rules.
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