Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Washington State Cougars prediction, pick for NCAAM on Wednesday 2/25/26

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Loyola Marymount Lions and the Washington State Cougars.

Washington State brings the louder offense into Los Angeles, but Loyola Marymount brings the part that usually decides late-February coin flips: resistance. The Cougars are 12-17 and still dangerous because they can score in waves. The Lions are 14-15 and much more comfortable making every trip feel crowded. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Loyola Marymount Lions and the Washington State Cougars.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The Cougars sit at 116.4 AdjOE with a 55.5 eFG%, they hit 55.6% on twos, 36.9% from three, and a heavy 45.0% of their shots come from deep. They also grab a 29.4% offensive rebound rate, so misses can become second chances instead of empty possessions. That is the clean case for the road side. The problem is the defensive answer waiting for it. Loyola Marymount owns a 105.7 AdjDE, a 48.6 eFGD%, and a stout 47.1 2P%D, which is the best single team-shape number on the floor tonight. The Lions also hold opponents to 34.2% from three and a 35.6 opponent 3-point attempt rate, so they are not just contesting shots, they are dragging teams off the easiest spacing rhythm.

Loyola Marymount allows only 53.0% on close twos and 38.5% on farther twos. Washington State allows 58.6% on close twos and 43.8% on farther twos. That is a meaningful interior gap in a game sitting at the same 67.3 adjusted tempo on both sides, because similar pace pushes the outcome toward shot quality and half-court control. Loyola Marymount’s own offense is not explosive overall at 107.3 AdjOE, but it is not helpless in the scoring zones that matter here. The Lions finish 84.1% of their dunks, hit 61.7% on close twos, and still get to a 31.4 FTR. Against a Washington State defense that allows 84.2% on dunks and does not force many turnovers at a 14.7 TORD, the Lions do not need a beautiful offense. They need enough rim access, enough free throws, and enough clean organizing possessions.

Loyola Marymount has, in my opinion, the stronger structure. Myron Amey Jr. carries a 22.7% usage rate with only a 10.5% turnover rate, and that is the kind of lead-guard steadiness that ages well in a one-possession game. Jan Vide is looser at 19.2% turnover rate, but his 27.9% assist rate gives the Lions a real table-setter. Jalen Shelley brings 24.4% usage, a 44.7 FTR, and a 19.5% defensive rebounding rate, so he can create offense while cleaning up misses. Then the size turns from abstract to concrete. Rick Issanza (7-1) carries a 10.0% block rate. Aaron McBride adds a 4.0% block rate and a 9.9% offensive rebounding rate. Joshua Dalton (6-10) and Rokas Jocius (6-10) keep the lane big behind them. Washington State has weapons too. Ace Glass III drives the offense at 27.3% usage, posts a 58.4 TS%, and has gone 79-for-90 at the line. Rihards Vavers has been hyper-efficient with a 127.2 ORTG, 63.8 eFG%, and 66.2 TS%. ND Okafor gives the Cougars real interior counters with a 10.0% offensive rebounding rate, an 18.4% defensive rebounding rate, and a 7.2% block rate. But LMU has more length to bother the first shot and more bodies to make the second one harder too.

Washington State vs. Loyola Marymount pick, best bet

Washington State owns the better overall Barthag at .6259 against .5425. The Cougars are the better raw shooting team, the better offensive team, and the more willing volume-three side. If Washington State wins the perimeter math, this can look like the road favorite the board first posted. That is the clearest danger. But the Cougars also turn it over on 18.5% of possessions, which is worse than LMU’s 17.9%, and they do not generate enough defensive chaos to erase those leaks. In a short spread, empty trips matter more than broad season résumé edges. The better offense can still lose when it bleeds a few possessions and gives up cleaner interior looks.

The game environment pushes the same direction. This is a same-tempo matchup in the high-60s, not a race. That means the edges are likely to come from who controls the paint, who protects the ball, and who gets a cleaner whistle profile late. Loyola Marymount’s size should matter more as the game slows into late-clock possessions. Washington State’s road path is more volatile because it leans harder on jump-shot volume. In a game this short, home floor is not just atmosphere. It is the extra body on a rebound, the extra rim contest, and the little officiating tilt that can turn a tied game into six free throws over the final two minutes.

Best bet: Loyola Marymount moneyline +100, playable to -105.Prediction: Loyola Marymount 76, Washington State 73.

Best bet: Loyola Marymount (+100) vs. Washington State

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