Big Picture: Will Pakistan abandon their conservative approach?
Pakistan’s habitual desperate net-run-rate calculations towards the tail-end of a group stage have thrown up another classic. In what is a dead-rubber for already-eliminated hosts Sri Lanka, Pakistan have been given a faint shot at staying alive in the T20 World Cup, thanks to a surprise comeback win for England over New Zealand. New Zealand boast a vastly superior net run rate (1.390) to Pakistan’s (-0.461), so for Salman Agha’s men to progress to the semi-finals, they must win on Saturday by around 64 runs, or chase any Sri Lankan target in about 13.1 overs. Those, for Pakistan, are the only numbers that matter in Pallekele.
That should, in theory, change the somewhat conservative approach they have taken through the middle overs. Frankly put, Babar Azam’s place in this T20I set-up was getting hard enough to argue for in regular T20I circumstances, but within these constraints is borderline unjustifiable. He, however, is not the only player whose strike-rate ceiling is limited, with captain Salman Agha similarly struggling this tournament, and indeed over the broader span of his T20I career.
However, Pakistan are yet to show any evidence of an ability to rack up a win of that sort of scale at this tournament so far. Indeed, Pakistan have never won by that margin against a Full Member at a T20 World Cup when batting first, and only once – in 2009 – when chasing. The slower surfaces of Sri Lanka compared to the flatter pitches in India make a path to such a victory more complicated, as does a Pakistani middle order that doesn’t boast elite power hitting, and Saim Ayub’s faltering form. But it’s a chance nonetheless, and at ICC events, sometimes that’s all Pakistan ask for.
There’s little other than pride at stake for Sri Lanka, whose tournament started with such promise, only to peak and fall away after a glorious win over Australia. They have lost their last three matches, and were the first side to be knocked out in the Super Eight. Pakistan’s qualification scenarios mean little to them, and they’ll want to demonstrate they are more than foil for Pakistani glory, or a roadblock to their progression.
The story, though, is of what Pakistan can possibly achieve, and whether they can thwart New Zealand’s progress to yet another ICC tournament semi-final.
Form guide
Sri Lanka LLLWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Pakistan LWLWW
In the spotlight: Dunith Wellalage and Salman Agha
A lot of Sri Lankan players will invariably be moved on after this T20 World Cup, but one who is set to form the core of the side for the next generation is Dunith Wellalage. The 23-year old left arm spinner’s competitive attitude makes him one of a short list of Sri Lankan players to have come out of this tournament with his reputation bolstered, and he has an ever-improving skillset to go with it. He is yet to play a T20I against Pakistan, having missed their Asia Cup clash, flying home for a family bereavement. But with a surfeit of right-hand batters in Pakistan’s top order, he could find himself deployed early on as he was against New Zealand, perhaps to nip Sahibzada Farhan in the bud at the outset.Salman Agha should perhaps be under more scrutiny than he is, having endured an indifferent tournament with the bat and an uninspiring one as captain. The questions swirling around his fitness for the format will only intensify after he let games drift with the ball against India and England, while his attempted aggression with the bat at No. 3 continues to feel feigned rather than organic. He has scored 60 runs in five innings at this tournament, 38 in one innings against Namibia. If Pakistan exit tamely, it is hard to envision him hanging on to the armband, and perhaps even his role in the side. However, Saturday perhaps represents one final chance for him to take control of his destiny.
Team news
Sri Lanka faced plenty of criticism for their meek capitulation against New Zealand, but as the tournament closes out, wholesale changes are not likely. Kusal Mendis suffered hamstring stiffness against New Zealand and is unlikely to play, with Kamil Mishara returning as wicketkeeper-batter.
Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Pathum Nissanka, 2 Kamil Mishara (wk), 3 Charith Asalanka, 4 Pavan Rathnayake, 5 Kamindu Mendis, 6 Dasun Shanaka (capt), 7 Dushan Hemantha, 8 Dunith Wellalage, 9 Dushmantha Chameera, 10 Maheesh Theekshana, 11 Dilshan Madushanka
Will Khawaja Nafay get a game?•ICC/Getty Images
Shaheen Afridi’s performance against England makes it likely he will keep his spot. If Pakistan are to stick to two specialist seamers on this surface, it makes it a straight shootout between Naseem Shah and Salman Mirza. What’s less certain is how the equation changes Pakistan’s batting line-up. So far, they have been reluctant to drop Babar Azam, or play Khawaja Nafay. Any caution needs to go out of the window as they battle to stay alive.
Pakistan (probable): 1 Sahibzada Farhan, 2 Saim Ayub, 3 Salman Agha (capt), 4 Babar Azam/Khawaja Nafay, 5 Fakhar Zaman, 6 Shadab Khan, 7 Usman Khan (wk), 8 Mohammad Nawaz/Faheem Ashraf, 9 Shaheen Afridi, 10 Salman Mirza/Naseem Shah, 11 Usman Tariq
Pitch and conditions
The same pitch where England played Pakistan will be used for this clash in Pallekele. That surface saw increased assistance for pace bowling with a hint of early movement. It’s been a dry week in Kandy, which is set to extend into the weekend.
Stats and trivia
- This game will be Salman Agha’s 50th in charge of Pakistan. He is only the second Pakistani captain to reach that mark after Babar Azam, who led his country 85 times in this format.
Quotes
“In general, the spinners have performed well. And we were happy with that particular area of our game. So if you expect even the last game, you can see that they were performing very well. It was just the last bit of the bowling that was an issue.”
Sri Lankan spin bowling coach Rene Ferdinands is satisfied with his side’s slow bowling
Danyal Rasool is ESPNcricinfo’s Pakistan correspondent. @Danny61000
