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The Oil Producing Exporting Countries (OPEC) logo which adorns the organization’s headquarters in Vienna.JOE KLAMAR/AFP/Getty Images
The Middle East has been forever changed in the last 72 hours with the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran, leading to the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The question of “what’s next?” is impossible to answer, perhaps even for the countries that launched the attacks. But investors will have no choice but to face “What now?”
Here are five things to know this week:
Assessing change: The first reaction will be in the oil markets. With Iran out, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production at a slightly faster pace, according to a statement released Sunday. Will this be enough to quell a supply crunch? Oil is already at a seven-month high, but analysts are skeptical barrels can be added by the group. “In our view, every OPEC+ producer is essentially maxed out with the sole exception of Saudi Arabia,” wrote Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Hence the barrel impact of any headline OPEC+ increase …. will be limited by the lack of actual production abilities.” There is also the question of when barrels can actually move in the region with the Strait of Hormuz – a key channel for shipping crude and other goods – effectively shut down. It’s against this backdrop that we will get results from Canada’s most valuable energy producer, Canadian Natural Resources. The crude producer reports Thursday morning after its stock hit a fresh record high last week.
Striking back: CrowdStrike CRWD-Q reports Tuesday after the bell at a time when its peers have been swept up in the AI-related sell-off. Shares of the cybersecurity software company are down nearly 35 per cent from their November peak. AI updates have been disrupting whole industries with every new product release. On Feb. 20, Anthropic revealed “Claude Code Security” which scans software code for vulnerability and suggests patches. Investors don’t expect this to be a near-term threat to CrowdStrike – sales are expected to grow 22 per cent. AI also presents new cybersecurity risks that the selloff is completely ignoring, argues Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. “AI represents the biggest total addressable market opportunity to the cybersecurity space in its history,” he wrote in a preview note. “We believe these stocks selling off is all on the ‘AI Ghost Trade’ fears … but it will prove to be the wrong reaction in the long-term.”
One quarter at a time: Algonquin Power AQN-T is slowly working its way back into investor’s hearts after a series of dramatic missteps over the last couple of years. The utility cut the dividend twice in the last three years and sold renewable assets to become more of a pure-play regulated utility. With new management in place, investors will look for signs of stabilization. “I think investors are starting to creep back into the name,” Rebecca Teltscher, portfolio manager with Newhaven Asset Management, said on my podcast. She named it as one of her top ideas right now. “I would never own a stock just for this [takeout potential], but I think this could be a really great takeout candidate,” she added.
Bullseye: Target TGT-N reports Tuesday morning before the opening bell and has been quietly outperforming going into the print. The big box retailer is up 17 per cent so far in 2026 versus the S&P 500, which was flat over that time. No doubt it has been a beneficiary of the rotation out of expensive stocks into value. Analysts expect that sales slumped 2.5 per cent, which would be a slight improvement from the 2.7 per cent drop in the previous quarter. The stock has been rallying on hopes the embattled retailer may finally be finding its footing just as tax refunds hit American consumers’ pocketbooks. That may be too optimistic, warned Bank of America in a note last week resuming coverage of the stock at the equivalent of a sell rating. “The sales outlook remains cloudy due to limited green shoots in most discretionary categories,” wrote Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone. “On margins, a potential acceleration in investments on muted comps will likely limit a swift EPS recovery.” He prefers Costco COST-Q, which reports Thursday after the close, and is also outperforming so far this year. “We think Costco is well positioned to remain a leader in this K-shaped economy given its strong appeal with higher-income consumers along with industry-leading pricing that attracts a more value-conscious shopper,” he said, referring to the term that describes one segment doing well, while another one struggles.
Stable: On Friday, the U.S. is expected to show it added 60,000 new jobs in February, which would be a deceleration from the previous month’s 130,000 new jobs. The data has become extremely volatile, prone to revisions. But even growth of 60,000 would show trends are stabilizing. Citi’s economists are warning that might not be the case of the rest of the year. “We continue to suspect this stability is more a result of familiar seasonal patterns than a true improvement in demand for workers,” Citi economist Veronica Clark wrote in a preview note to clients. “A repeat of seasonal patterns would imply the unemployment rate reaching 4.7 per cent this year, which we expect to lead to 75 basis points in rate cuts from the Fed.”
In the Money with Amber Kanwar is Canada’s top investing podcast. New episodes out Tuesday and Thursday. Subscribe now at www.inthemoneypod.com
