The regime’s definition of victory is survival. To achieve that it surrounds itself with a formidable level of protection.
It has a powerful and ruthless apparatus of security, repression and coercion. In January its men went on to the streets, following orders to kill thousands of protestors. So far – and as I have said repeatedly, it’s only day three of the war as I write this – there is no sign that the regime’s armed forces are melting away, as Assad’s did after he fled to Moscow in December 2024.
As well as conventional armed forces and well-armed police, there is the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, with an explicit mandate to protect the regime at home and abroad. It exists to be the muscle behind the velayat-e faqih, the guardianship of the jurist. That is the key doctrine of the Islamic revolution in Iran, which justifies the rule of Shia religious leaders.
The IRGC is believed to have 190,000 on active duty and as many as 600,000 reservists. Religious doctrine apart, it also runs much of the economy. Its leaders have financial as well as ideological reasons to stay loyal.
The IRGC is backed by the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary force. Its estimated 450,000 members have a reputation for loyalty to the regime and for thuggery.
I saw them in action in Tehran as the regime’s first line of defence during the protests that followed the disputed 2009 election, threatening and beating protestors on the streets with clubs and rubber truncheons. Behind them were heavily armed police and IRGC men. The Basij also had flying squads on motorcycles that raced around the city dealing with outbreaks of dissent.
Donald Trump has threatened the IRGC and the Basij with certain death – he said “it won’t be pretty” – unless they lay down their arms. His threats are unlikely to change many minds among the regime’s armed men.
