Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Nico Echavarria (70-1 pre-tournament) was 35-1 Sunday on the 16th hole to win the Cognizant Classic. He was bogey-free all weekend, as was Shane Lowry, who held a three-shot lead, until the 16th when the “Bear Trap” got him.
Lowry’s hold on the tournament was done in by consecutive double bogeys at the par-4 16th and par-3 17th, both resulting from tee shots that drifted way right and into the water. The Irishman ended up in a three-way tie for second with Austin Smotherman and Taylor Moore and has now finished 11th or better five straight years at PGA National without a victory.
Meanwhile, Echavarria earned his third career PGA Tour victory and a spot in next month’s Masters.
This week, the PGA Tour moves to Orlando, Florida, for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. The API is a “signature event,” so only 72 players are in this week’s field. Leading that field is Scottie Scheffler (+333), who has won this event twice (2022, 2024) in the last four years.
Rory McIlroy (10-1) is also a former winner (2018) here and has six top-10 finishes in 11 career starts at Bay Hill.
Tommy Fleetwood (18-1) has finished fourth and seventh in his last two events, and Xander Schauffele (22-1) just posted his first top-10 of the season two weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational.
Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1) has four top-10s at Bay Hill.
Russell Henley (28-1) is the defending event champion and outdueled Collin Morikawa (31-1) by a shot here last year.
Hideki Matsuyama (30-1) was runner-up in Phoenix three weeks ago but has just one top 10 in 11 trips to Bay Hill.
Kurt Kitayama (45-1), the 2023 API champion, and 2016 winner Jason Day (60-1) are other former champions in this week’s field.
Justin Thomas (66-1) makes his 2026 season debut this week after offseason back surgery, as does Sungjae Im (150-1) from wrist surgery.
The Event
The Arnold Palmer Invitational began in essence in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open in Orlando. In 1979, the tournament moved to its present home at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Arnold Palmer owned the club until his death in 2016. His daughter and son-in-law, Amy and Roy Saunders, now own and operate the club. Palmer served as host from 1979 until his passing, and the event took on his name in 2007.
No player has won more here than Tiger Woods, who has been victorious eight times (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013) but is not participating this week. Other major champions who have emerged victorious here at Bay Hill Club include Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2024), Bryson DeChambeau (2021), Francesco Molinari (2019), Rory McIlroy (2018), Jason Day (2016), Ernie Els (1998, 2010), Vijay Singh (2007), Phil Mickelson (1997), Ben Crenshaw (1993), Fred Couples (1992), Tom Kite (1982, 1989), Paul Azinger (1988), Payne Stewart (1987) and Fuzzy Zoeller (1985).
The Field
28 of the top 30 OWGR-ranked players are in the field of 72 players this week.
Note that there will be a cut here for the weekend down to the Top 50 and ties and all players within 10 shots of the lead.
The Course
The Bay Hill Club & Lodge was designed in 1961 by Dick Wilson and Bob Simmons and was owned by Arnold Palmer, who also did several redesigns from 1974 to 2016. The stretching 7,466-yard, par-72 parklands features a set of tough par-4s plus three of the par-5s measure over 550 yards but are scoreable. The par-3s, which are the longest on tour, average almost 220 yards.
This is a course that ordinarily tests all facets of a player’s game. Bay Hill features three inches of overseeded rye rough plus TifEagle Bermuda green complexes that will run fast at 13 on the stimpmeter. In 2015, all holes and green complexes were re-grassed with the putting surfaces, which average around 7,500 square feet (fourth largest on tour). The track is heavily bunkered (84) and has water in play on nine holes. Three years ago, most of the sloping run-off areas around the greens had been replaced with thick three-inch rough.
With the recent changes, Bay Hill has been rated in the top 10 in terms of the toughest courses on tour each of the last six years. Three years ago, the fairways were widened, and some trees were removed, so driving is easier than before, but approach shots, shots around the green and putting is where the course is more difficult.
Bay Hill might be the toughest two-hole closing stretch on tour. The par-3 17th is a 221-yard tee shot often hit into a stiff wind over water to a well-bunkered green. The 18th is a 458-yard par-4 that begins with a nervous tee shot, also hit into the wind, that brings water into play on the right for the longer hitters and out of bounds into play on the left for shorter hitters. Bunkers surround the back and left of the green to punish any players looking for other places to bail out.
Correlated courses to Bay Hill include PGA National, Quail Hollow, Memorial Park, Olympia Fields, Doral, Concession, the Country Club, and Congaree, plus recent major championship courses like Augusta National, Oak Hill, Winged Foot and Bethpage Black.
The record low round in tournament play at Bay Hill is 62, shared by Andy Bean (Round 2, 1981), Greg Norman (Round 2, 1984) and Adam Scott (Round 1, 2014).
Individual hole flyover videos are provided on Bay Hill’s YouTube page.
Weather
The Orlando area has not received much rain lately, so the fairways should have some roll and be firm and fast.
The wind also looks to be lower than it was last year, so the greens should be fast as well.
Otherwise, the AccuWeather forecast looks ideal.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Recent History/Winners
2025: Russell Henley (-11/277); 45-1
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15/273); 6-1
2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9/279); 200-1
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5/283); 20-1
2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11/277); 13-1
2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4/284); 55-1
2019: Francesco Molinari (-12/276); 33-1
2018: Rory McIlroy (-18/270); 20-1
2017: Marc Leishman (-11/277); 100-1
2016: Jason Day (-17/271); 14-1
2015: Matt Every (-19/269); 300-1
2014: Matt Every (-13/275); 66-1
2013: Tiger Woods (-13/275); 3-1
2012: Tiger Woods (-13/275); 8-1
2011: Martin Laird (-8/280); 45-1
2010: Ernie Els (-11/277); 16-1
The API became a “Signature Event” in 2024 with a limited field of 72 players.
Statistical Analysis
Bay Hill has been one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour to gain strokes on approach despite having large greens.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Rory McIlroy 1.464
- Si Woo Kim 1.313
- Austin Smotherman 1.286
- Matt Fitzpatrick 1.110
- Collin Morikawa 1.081
- Ryan Gerard 0.938
- Jacob Bridgeman 0.922
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.892
- Shane Lowry 0.848
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.834
- Chris Kirk 0.772
- Justin Rose 0.763
- Viktor Hovland 0.756
- Kurt Kitayama 0.675
- Daniel Berger 0.652
Around one-third of the approach shots are from 200 yards or more. Three of the four par-3s are over 200 yards as well.
Average Proximity to the Hole Approaches > 200 Yards (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Hideki Matsuyama 38′ 9″ (feet, inches from hole)
- Si Woo Kim 39′ 6″
- Lucas Glover 41′ 1″
- Shane Lowry 41′ 9″
- Ryan Fox 41′ 10″
- Adam Scott 42′ 2″
- Nicolai Højgaard 42′ 9″
- Matt Fitzpatrick 42′ 11″
- Patrick Cantlay 43′ 7″
- Ryo Hisatsune 44′ 0″
- Austin Smotherman 44′ 3″
- Tom Hoge 44′ 8″
- Keegan Bradley 44′ 10″
- Patrick Rodgers 45′ 8″
- Harris English 46′ 3″
Longer hitters like Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy have won at Bay Hill, but so have good ball strikers like Russell Henley, Tyrrell Hatton and Francesco Molinari. Hit it as long as possible but also as straight as possible. Total Driving combines Driving Distance Ranking with Driving Distance Ranking.
Total Driving (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Min Woo Lee 25 (Driving Distance 7 + Driving Accuracy 18)
- Adam Scott 58 (29 + 29)
- Michael Thorbjornsen 70 (32 + 38)
- Collin Morikawa 80 (70 + 10)
- Matt Fitzpatrick 85 (78 + 7)
- Rory McIlroy 87 (22 + 65)
- Rickie Fowler 88 (55 + 33)
- Scottie Scheffler 96 (41 + 55)
- Kurt Kitayama 103 (54 + 49)
- Maverick McNealy 103 (30 + 73)
- Jake Knapp 107 (8 + 99)
- Sam Stevens 109 (50 + 59)
- Aldrich Potgieter 111 (3 + 108)
- Nicolai Højgaard 118 (10 + 108)
- Corey Conners 119 (113 + 6)
- Ryo Hisatsune 119 (93 + 26)
It is a bit more difficult to gain strokes off the tee at Bay Hill. Due to the thick rough and water on nine holes, some players will use 3-wood or long irons off the tee and keep driver in the bag on some holes. Distance can help, but it is not all about length off the tee, especially with some roll in these fairways.
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 0.863
- Adam Scott 0.843
- Chris Gotterup 0.784
- Joel Dahmen 0.762
- Pierceson Coody 0.702
- Harris English 0.695
- Nicolai Højgaard 0.684
- Min Woo Lee 0.682
- Keith Mitchell 0.640
- Si Woo Kim 0.569
- Xander Schauffele 0.569
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.561
- Aldrich Potgieter 0.558
- Ryo Hisatsune 0.545
- Collin Morikawa 0.524
- Kurt Kitayama 0.507
Since the par-3s are long and difficult, the par-5s take on even more importance. All of them are reachable in two shots and have just under a 40 percent Birdie or Better rate.
Strokes Gained: Par-5s (Last 24 rounds)
- Ben Griffin 22.4
- Pierceson Coody 19.9
- Scottie Scheffler 15.6
- Jake Knapp 15.6
- Xander Schauffele 15.1
- Matt Fitzpatrick 15
- Adam Scott 14.3
- Matt McCarty 14
- Austin Smotherman 13.8
- Sepp Straka 13.8
- Tommy Fleetwood 12.4
- Nicolai Højgaard 12.1
- Harris English 10.6
- Rory McIlroy 9.4
- Robert MacIntyre 9.1
- Harry Hall 9
The API winners each of the last two years (Henley — 2025; Scheffler — 2024) led the field for Strokes Gained: Around The Green. The elevated and contoured greens and the thick grass around the greens will make for some difficult par saves.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Tommy Fleetwood 1.107
- Taylor Moore 1.066
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.677
- Keegan Bradley 0.671
- Harry Hall 0.588
- Scottie Scheffler 0.544
- Ben Griffin 0.529
- J.J. Spaun 0.446
- Chris Gotterup 0.441
- Min Woo Lee 0.409
- Rory McIlroy 0.394
- Jason Day 0.383
- Alex Noren 0.377
- Patrick Rodgers 0.366
- Andrew Putnam 0.310
- Patrick Cantlay 0.301
Scrambling (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Hideki Matsuyama 78.76%
- Tommy Fleetwood 76.19
- Taylor Moore 76.06
- Rory McIlroy 75.00
- Nick Taylor 73.74
- Robert MacIntyre 73.63
- Patrick Cantlay 71.88
- Jake Knapp 71.82
- Kurt Kitayama 71.43
- Jason Day 71.01
- Joel Dahmen 70.77
- Harry Hall 69.57
- Harris English 68.93
- Adam Scott 67.95
- Jordan Spieth 67.47
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Rory McIlroy 6.94% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
- Hideki Matsuyama 8.33
- Taylor Moore 8.33
- Nick Taylor 8.61
- Scottie Scheffler 9.03
- Patrick Cantlay 9.52
- Joel Dahmen 9.52
- Kurt Kitayama 9.65
- Tommy Fleetwood 9.72
- Nicolai Højgaard 9.72
- Jake Knapp 9.72
- Jason Day 9.92
- Adam Scott 10.07
- Ryan Gerard 10.19
- Si Woo Kim 10.19
- Jacob Bridgeman 10.28
- Min Woo Lee 10.42
- Robert MacIntyre 10.42
Bay Hill has ranked 10th or higher in terms of course difficulty on the PGA Tour in each of the last six years. There are not a lot of birdie opportunities out there on this course, so players will have to take advantage when they present themselves.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 34.03%
- Rory McIlroy 31.94
- Jacob Bridgeman 31.39
- Tommy Fleetwood 30.56
- Ludvig Åberg 29.17
- Pierceson Coody 29.17
- Shane Lowry 29.17
- Matt Fitzpatrick 28.82
- Ryan Fox 28.70
- Si Woo Kim 28.24
- Justin Rose 28.21
- Russell Henley 28.17
- Collin Morikawa 28.17
- Min Woo Lee 28.13
- Robert MacIntyre 28.13
The greens are fast (12.5 stimpmeter) anyway but should get a little faster over the weekend. Plus, they are large greens, so players will have to gain with lag putts.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Bermuda Greens (Last 36 rounds)
- Harry Hall 41.8
- Sam Burns 35.6
- Denny McCarthy 32.8
- Nico Echavarria 30.9
- Robert MacIntyre 24.4
- Ben Griffin 24
- Jacob Bridgeman 22
- Jason Day 20.6
- Max Greyserman 20.1
- Jake Knapp 19.6
- Andrew Putnam 19.2
- Cameron Young 19.1
- Scottie Scheffler 18.3
- Min Woo Lee 18.1
- Taylor Pendrith 15.8
- Rory McIlroy 15.5
- Patrick Rodgers 15.3
- Ryan Fox 15
Selections
Rory McIlroy 10-1
McIlroy’s putter was cold at Riviera two weeks ago and kept him from putting needed pressure on Jacob Bridgeman at the Genesis Invitational. He settled for a T-2 finish but did lead in the field for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green.
McIlroy’s game has many strengths, but off the tee is typically where his game is best. However, he leads the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach and is hitting his irons the best he has in about three years.
He has already had a winning week this week with a victory in the TGL on Sunday and winning the Seminole Pro-Member title with his father, Gerry, on Monday. Another red cardigan (given out to the API winner annually) would close out the trifecta.
Collin Morikawa 27-1
Last year, Morikawa seemingly had control of the API in the final round before playing partner Russell Henley chipped in for eagle at 16 and took the tournament from him.
That started a bit of chippiness between Morikawa and the media for a few months, but he broke his winless drought a few weeks ago at Pebble Beach. Perhaps a little “nappy factor” helped him along as he and wife Katherine announced that they were expecting after his victory.
The putter probably cost him here last year and he is ranked 131st this season, but the ball-striking numbers are too much to ignore, and he did follow up the win at Pebble Beach with a T-7 at the Genesis Invitational where he was second in the field for Driving Accuracy, a category in which he led the field at Bay Hill last year en route to his runner-up finish.
Matt Fitzpatrick 28-1
Fitzpatrick has four top-10 and seven top-25 finishes in 11 career starts in this event, so he has always been comfortable at Bay Hill.
He has been “Flushpatrick” thus far this season with the ball striking (first) as he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach and fifth for Total Driving. Unfortunately, the putter has struggled thus far in 2026.
Fitz currently ranks 141st in the Strokes Gained: Putting, but he has ranked inside the top 30 on the PGA Tour in five of his last six seasons, and the move back to the Bermudagrass in Florida should improve those numbers.
Viktor Hovland 46-1
Hovland probably should have won here in 2022 but finished runner-up to Scheffler. The following year, he was the 54-hole leader but stumbled on Sunday to finish T-10.
His putting and his off-the-tee game have been subpar to start the season, but going back to Florida and a course where he has always played well might be what turns it around.
He is the 14th price on the board this week, which is too high for a player of his caliber.
Nicolai Højgaard 60-1
He was on the card last week and did not contend in the end but did finish strong, making seven birdies in his first 11 holes on Sunday before settling for a T-6 finish at the Cognizant Classic for his third top-6 finish of the season (third in Phoenix; fourth in Dubai).
That finish put him at No. 50 in the OWGR, which would get him into the Masters next month, but one more high finish locks in his spot.
While he has missed the cut here on both appearances, his distance and ball-striking game should fit this place nicely.
Placement markets, matchups and/or other bets (including the Puerto Rico Open) will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com.
