The World Baseball Classic is finally here, and this year’s iteration may be the most star-studded in the tournament’s history. Can it top the Hollywood ending from 2023, when superstar MLB teammates Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout went face-to-face in the championship game’s final moment? Will there be another great underdog story from a smaller baseball nation like Czechia? We’ve thought about all the scenarios since the last tournament ended. Now we’re ready to see the pageantry unfold.
Ahead of the first pitch in the tournament’s kick-off game between Chinese Taipei and Australia, we polled our staff to find out who they think will win the tournament, who the dark horse teams will be, who will make a name for themselves on Team USA and which players from the rest of the pool we should be watching.
Which team will win it all?
Tournament winner predictions
CountryVotes
Dominican Republic
7
United States
5
Japan
4
Team USA’s roster may be stacked and Samurai Japan is the defending champion, but our staff see a different super team coming out on top this spring. The Dominican Republic squad, led by Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado and Julio Rodríguez (just to name a few stars), is our staff pick to click. The D.R., USA and Japan were the only countries to receive votes.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto are two pillars of a star-studded Dominican Republic roster. (Mary DeCicco / WBCI / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Team Dominican Republic: Team Japan doesn’t have as strong a group as it did in 2023. Team USA has loaded up on pitching, but already has seen that depth thin out just a bit before the tournament. Then there’s the Dominican Republic, looming with a potentially lethal lineup and an ascendant star in Junior Caminero. — Fabian Ardaya
Team USA: Clearly, I’ve bought into the hype. Maybe a little too much. I’d love to know who’s going to be lined up to start the championship game for the U.S., but even with that massive X-factor, I’ll go ahead and pick the lineup and bullpen of Team USA to live up to the staggering expectations. — Chad Jennings
Team Japan: It’s tough to go against the champs. Especially when they have the best hitter in the tournament and the best pitcher is sitting it out (but it’s the same guy). There’s something about Japanese baseball and the approach that I believe plays well in this type of tournament. I’m not sure this tournament means more to any other team and that, plus the talent, is a separator. — C. Trent Rosencrans
Team Dominican Republic: The nature of the tournament is such that every team is susceptible in the knockout stage. Single elimination. Reduced pitcher availability. The Dominican Republic may not be as talented top to bottom as Team USA or Samurai Japan. But how the rosters look on paper does not matter when the games begin. The Dominican has enough pitching to sustain them into the knockout stage, and their lineup can beat anybody. — Stephen Nesbitt
Team USA: Their lineup is stacked. Their rotation (though perhaps a bit thinner than expected given some pitchers’ allotted workloads) still boasts the best depth. For a long time, Team USA struggled to recruit its biggest stars. That is certainly not the case this year. — Katie Woo
Team Japan: Samurai Japan has experience, cohesion and the most talented player on the planet. While Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch in the tournament, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his staff mates will confound opponents with a slew of splitters. — Dennis Lin
Team Dominican Republic: Juan Soto. Manny Machado. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Fernando Tatis Jr. The lineup is absolutely loaded with the sort of hitters capable of locking in and conquering elite pitching. Team D.R. manager Albert Pujols also has some excellent arms at his disposal in the bullpen. This early in the year, that velocity could prove decisive. — Andy McCullough
Which team is the biggest dark horse challenger for the title?
Biggest dark horse team
CountryVotes
Canada
4
Italy
4
Mexico
3
Puerto Rico
2
Czechia
1
Venezuela
1
Chinese Taipei
1
Our writers were more split about which teams could challenge the Big Three as a tournament upstart. Team Canada and Team Italy tied for the most votes, while Mexico came in a close third. Underdogs Czechia and Chinese Taipei also earned votes.
Team Canada: This is the best roster Canada has ever sent to an international tournament. Even without Freddie Freeman, they can field a lineup of regular big leaguers at every position for the first time. Canada’s real dark horse potential, though, comes from a weak Group A. Puerto Rico is without much of their top talent and the rest of the teams in Canada’s group are particularly beatable. If they can make it to the knockout stage, Canada’s lineup could rattle off an upset or two. — Mitch Bannon
Vinnie Pasquantino is one of several big leaguers on Team Italy. (Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
Team Italy: The lineup’s actually pretty good … and the coaching staff is full of “Oh yeah, I vaguely remember that dude” dudes. — Zack Meisel
Team Mexico: The trio of Jarren Duran, Alejandro Kirk and Randy Arozarena should be just enough to get Mexico out of pool play. At that point, anything can happen, as evidenced by Mexico’s near upset last tournament. — Johnny Flores Jr.
Team Puerto Rico: I don’t know how much of a “dark horse” a team as talented as Puerto Rico can truly be, but they feel underrated a bit without the presence of Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, plus the ugly memories of Edwin Díaz’s injury in 2023. Puerto Rico rides that chip on their shoulder and the home environment in San Juan to dominance in Group A, then gets revenge for its defeat against Mexico three years ago in a quarterfinals rematch. Buzz starts growing around Yadier Molina’s candidacy for an MLB manager job as a result. — Austin Green
Team Czechia: Take a look at the roster and about the closest thing you’ll find to a familiar name is “Martin Červinka” and that’s because about one second ago, you read the name “Martin Červenka” (one’s a catcher, one’s an infielder). I do not think they are dark horses in the strictest sense of the word. But they would be an ENORMOUS surprise, and this is what my dusty old romantic heart hopes for. — Levi Weaver
Who will be Team USA’s breakout star?
There is a wide array of candidates for this honor, but only two names appear more than once in our staff vote, Kansas City Royals superstar Bobby Witt Jr., who received four separate mentions, and Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Brice Turang, who received two.
Here is a sampling of our staff predictions for Team USA’s breakout star:
Bobby Witt Jr.: Sidelined last WBC as a spectator, Witt returns as Team USA’s starting shortstop and arguably its most well-rounded bat. Playing with a chip on his shoulder, Witt will demonstrate the power, average, speed combo, plus Gold Glove defense that has made him a perennial All-Star and MVP contender at just 25 years old. — Johnny Flores Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr. is ready for international stardom. (Norm Hall / Getty Images)
Does Bobby Witt Jr. qualify? I think those of us who follow baseball as a whole know just how good he is, but I’m not sure the public at large recognizes the Kansas City Royals shortstop. I mean, we all knew Trea Turner last time, but I’d argue he was the breakout star. It seems similar, and if anything, Witt is less known than Turner was at that time. — C. Trent Rosecrans
Bobby Witt Jr., if only because casual fans still don’t fully appreciate the player he’s become largely away from the spotlight in Kansas City. Witt has the tools — and, thanks to his 2023 stint as Trea Turner’s understudy, experience — to change that in front of a bigger audience over the next few weeks. — Austin Green
I don’t know if he counts as a breakout, but this will be Bobby Witt Jr.’s tournament. — Dan Barbarisi
Brice Turang: Reason? Who else can even qualify as “breakout” on this roster? I hear this Kershaw kid has a good curveball, and Aaron Judge? Sounds like a fake name. I’m not even sure Turang should count — he was worth 5.6 bWAR last year for the Brewers — but this is a stacked roster of guys for whom “breakout” is a ship that has long since sailed. — Levi Weaver
Well, most of these other guys are already household names. Turang is coming off a 5-WAR season. He’s breaking out already. But this will be when the wider baseball world gets a better look at the speedy Brewers second baseman. — Stephen Nesbitt
Bryce Harper: He hasn’t played for his country since he was 16 years old. Yes, he is excited. It just feels like he’ll have a big moment. — Matt Gelb
Nolan McLean: McLean is a darling among all the baseball evaluators I respect. On a team of established stars, and with a sudden opening in the rotation for USA, McLean could become a vital piece. — Fabian Ardaya
Byron Buxton: It’s hard to pick a breakout from a roster built of All-Stars and MVPs, but this should be the tournament where everybody remembers Byron Buxton is one of the best players in the league. He’s quietly coming off two of his best (and healthiest) seasons. He’s played in just four postseason games in his career, giving him little time to show his ability on the biggest stage. As the clear starting centre fielder for USA, this is Buxton’s chance to shine. — Mitch Bannon
Logan Webb: The hype will (understandably) be on Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, but let’s not forget Webb is an ace-caliber pitcher, too. — Katie Woo
Kyle Schwarber: I’m kind of tempted to pick one of the relievers — Griffin Jax or Garrett Whitlock — but we always remember the big hits, and Schwarber seems custom-built to deliver them. — Chad Jennings
Ernie Clement: He was an unexpected star in October. Now, that success will encourage manager Mark DeRosa to trust him in some of the biggest spots. — Dennis Lin
Roman Anthony: He’s a rising star who’s about to become a household name in places other than Boston. — Zack Meisel
Clayton Kershaw: Not much is known about the mysterious left-hander from Dallas, the only member of Team USA who is not signed to a professional roster. He last represented his country in international competition in the summer of 2005. Little has been written about him in the intervening 21 years, but he could be an X-factor for manager Mark DeRosa. — Andy McCullough
Who will be the player to watch from the rest of the field?
This question resulted in a wide range of answers, but one name popped up twice — dynamic right-hander Hiromi Itoh from Samurai Japan.
Here are some of the players from teams other than the USA that our staff are watching closely:
Hiromi Itoh, Team Japan: The reigning Eiji Sawamura Award winner, the 5-foot-9 right-hander could take the place of Shohei Ohtani in Samurai Japan’s rotation. Regardless of his role, Itoh has as many as nine pitches, which will make him at least a curiosity. But he’s more than that, he’s an elite pitcher who could be posted at the end of the season, which brings about its own interest. — C. Trent Rosecrans
Hiromi Itoh pitched for Team Japan in the 2023 WBC as well. (Eric Espada / Getty Images)
Itoh struck out 195 batters over 196 2/3 innings last year for the Fighters, carding a 2.52 ERA, his second straight season of an ERA under 2.65. He doesn’t walk many batters and keeps the ball in the park. Of his 27 starts last season, six were complete games. He’s an old-fashioned pitcher in every sense of the word and will be a treat to watch. — Johnny Flores Jr.
Liván Moinelo, Team Cuba: Team Cuba is without most of its MLB stars, but it does have two of the best pitchers in Nippon Professional Baseball. The left-handed Moinelo is Cuba’s ace, and he just won the Pacific League’s MVP award. He’s a big-league talent who just happens to not pitch in the big leagues. Also worth watching: closer Raidel Martínez. — Chad Jennings
Phillippe Aumont, Team Canada: Every few years, the 37-year-old Canadian reliever steps off his farm, throws in the mid-90s and becomes one of Canada’s most valuable relievers in an international tournament. You’d think this is his last shot, but I wouldn’t count him out of the Olympics (if Canada can qualify) or the next WBC. — Mitch Bannon
Edwin Díaz, Team Puerto Rico: Díaz’s return to Puerto Rico after his grueling injury last year is inspiring enough. That he’s pitching in his native Puerto Rico for the first time as a professional makes this even more special. — Katie Woo
Jazz Chisholm, Team Great Britain: Jazz Chisholm as the clear-cut star player on a national team’s roster? For better or for worse, it seems like a sure bet he’ll make some headlines in this tournament. — Austin Green
Travis Bazzana, Team Australia: Australia will be worth watching to see Bazzana, the No. 1 pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and the Cleveland Guardians’ top prospect, in the spotlight. As a hitter, he’s a fun package, with plus speed and an elite plate approach. — Stephen Nesbitt
Vinnie Pasquantino, Team Italy: He has the power and personality made for the big stage. — Zack Meisel
Ranger Suárez, Team Venezuela: He wasn’t able to pitch for Venezuela last WBC because of an injury. He arrived at Red Sox camp early, and he is the kind of pitcher built for this event. — Matt Gelb
Juan Soto, Team Dominican Republic: The $765 million man is my pick to click for the tournament. I think the Dominicans are going to pillory opposing pitchers, and Soto is their best hitter. — Andy McCullough
Junior Caminero, Team Dominican Republic: Caminero is already one of the best players in the sport you probably don’t watch enough of. This will provide a bigger stage to show how electric his bat can be. — Fabian Ardaya
Fernando Tatis Jr., Team Dominican Republic: He’s a five-tool talent who grew up in winter-ball environments and will be making his WBC debut after serving a suspension in 2023. — Dennis Lin
Munetaka Murakami, Team Japan: Curious to see Murakami, and whether success in this tournament could carry him into a strong start to his MLB career. — Dan Barbarisi
Lachlan Wells, Team Australia: I don’t know anything about Wells that you can’t find on Baseball Reference, so I can’t help you with a scouting report. But here are my reasons to watch.
1. His twin brother Alex (who pitched in 13 games for the Orioles in 2021-22) is also on the team.They are both left-handed pitchers.
2. Check out the Australia roster page and check out these two nerds. They look like dudes I would invite to a cookout in my backyard.
3. There is already an Instagram account dedicated to Lachlan Wells fandom. At time of writing, @wellsywatch has 203 followers … [click] make that 204. — Levi Weaver
