Why more top pitchers, such as Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, are welcoming World Baseball Classic participation
Matsuzaka’s alarming dropoff offered a jarring lesson in the potential risks of the tournament, particularly for pitchers. Thereafter, many top pitchers and their teams viewed the WBC as a risk not worth taking.
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This year, with still-vivid memories of the incredible 2023 WBC, that mind-set has shifted. Yoshinobu Yamamoto — despite absorbing a staggering workload in last year’s postseason — continued his country’s tradition of fielding its best pitchers. Now, finally, other countries are doing the same.
The participation of reigning Cy Young winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal kickstarted a run of elite US pitchers lining up to take part in the tournament. (Garrett Crochet declined with regrets, out of a desire to remain with his wife and newborn daughter throughout spring training.)
The Dominican Republic will feature a formidable rotation of 2025 NL Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sánchez, 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, and Red Sox starter Brayan Bello. Ranger Suárez, who signed a five-year, $130 million deal with the Red Sox in January, took the ball for Venezuela in its WBC opener.
Star relievers likewise showed little reservation about taking part. Red Sox reliever Garrett Whitlock jumped at the chance to pitch for Team USA, joining a bullpen that features elite closers Mason Miller, David Bednar, and others in the late innings.
How to explain the shift in willingness of top pitchers to take part in the tournament — usually with the blessing of their teams?
First, there’s a broader acceptance that pitching in just about any form in the Icarian era of melting wax wings comes with risk. Red Sox manager Alex Cora noted that Twins ace Pablo López, who’d been scheduled to pitch for Venezuela, blew out his elbow and required Tommy John surgery amid a normal spring training buildup.
“It doesn’t matter if you’re throwing in Puerto Rico, Miami, Houston,” said Cora, citing the different WBC venues. “The thing is what everybody makes it, like, ‘Oh, he got hurt pitching for Team USA instead of pitching for the Red Sox.’ I get it. But they’re still pitching, they’re still competing. It’s a little bit louder, and it is more [intense in the WBC] than [spring training], but I’m a big believer you can get hurt [anywhere].”
The buildup to the tournament also is very different than it used to be. Whereas players even just a few years ago used spring training to work their way into shape and build toward their regular-season velocity, the overhaul of offseason training methods means players are usually approaching or scraping their peak velocities either before spring training or early in camp. (How else to explain Payton Tolle winning a T-shirt for throwing 100 miles per hour Wednesday?)
“I think it’d be pretty hard to find anyone here who’s not saying they’re going full-go in spring training games,” Whitlock said prior to leaving Sox camp. “I talked to the club, but they weren’t concerned about it. It didn’t cross my mind to even be like, ‘Oh, this is more injury risk,’ because you come into spring training already built up. You’re going full-tilt in these games. So I didn’t see it really as any different.”
Red Sox starter Brayan Bello will play an integral role on the pitching staff for the Dominican Republic in the WBC.Bryan M. Bennett/Getty
Of course, there are going to be instances of pitchers getting hurt in the WBC, and when they do fall, there’s a reasonable likelihood that people will blame the tournament. Still, the intrinsic phenomenon of pitchers unleashing comets with maximum effort every time they take the mound from March through October is a more likely cause of injuries than one to three games pitched in front of packed big league ballparks prior to the start of the season.
From the five WBC tournaments that have now taken place, a Globe analysis of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com identified 51 pitchers who a) pitched on a team that reached the WBC final, meaning on teams that absorbed the most games and thus fullest risks from participation in the tournament; and b) appeared in MLB big league games or were under contract to do so in both the season before and season of the WBC.
On average, those pitchers experienced an innings decline of 15 percent while seeing their ERA rise nearly three-quarters of a run, from 3.36 in the year before the tournament to 4.10 in the regular season that immediately followed the WBC.
That said, it’s difficult to identify causality. There’s some selection bias in play, since pitchers who have been invited to pitch in the WBC are usually coming off strong seasons — with a likely regression to the mean.
Citing the tournament as the cause of injury seems overly broad. Adam Wainwright suffered a groin injury during a workout while with Team USA in the last WBC, and after beginning the year on the injured list, experienced a massive dropoff from 2022 (3.71 ERA in 191⅔ innings) to 2023 (7.40 ERA in 101 innings). Was that weight-room injury a function of involvement in the tournament, or because he was 40?
Certainly, the Red Sox and other teams have taken precautions with pitchers they’re sending to the tournament. The team’s medical and training staffs and pitching coaches had Suárez, Bello, and Whitlock build their spring training in-game workloads earlier than some peers in order to prepare them for the heightened intensity of the tournament.
That said, the tournament is reaching a different level of acceptance — and enthusiasm — throughout the sport, allowing a growing number of top-flight pitchers to take part in a competition that is offering increasingly compelling theater.
How the World Baseball Classic affects spring training
Red Sox reporter Tim Healey gives his take on how the World Baseball Classic will impact the league and Boston’s players during spring training.
Alex Speier can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @alexspeier.
