Two JP McManus-owned contenders under Ultima microscope – analysis and quotes for all four handicaps on Cheltenham day one

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You will be spoiled for choice with tipsters offering you selections in the Cheltenham handicaps this week, including from the Racing Post’s team of top judges. 

If you are the sort of punter who would rather figure it out for yourself, but maybe need your form study streamlined, then this is the place for you. Through the week we will highlight the formlines and form requirements to make finding a shortlist for the Cheltenham handicaps easier than ever; not that it was ever easy.

For each race we have laid out how well handicapped you need to be on average over the last ten years to win or place in the race, using Racing Post Ratings recorded on the day minus BHA ratings. We also pick out the best trials, the horses with the best course form, and some key quotes from connections. Finally, we offer an expert view to piece together the evidence and curate a shortlist.

2.40 – McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (registered as the Fred Winter)

How many pounds in hand to win/place: 3.2lb win, -2.5lb place

Best trial: Rated Hurdle at Naas, run this year on February 7 and won by Highland Crystal. In a five-year run from 2019 to 2023, four winners and two runners-up in this race came straight from that contest.

Horses with the best course form: Only Winston Junior and Hardy Stuff have run at Cheltenham before. Of the two, only Winston Junior ran any sort of race, finishing second in December.

Key quotes:

Willie Mullins, trainer of Bertutea, Madness D’Elle and Mino Des Mottes
Bertutea won in very testing ground at Christmas and this ground might not bring out the best in him, but the application of a tongue-tie will be a big help. Madness D’Elle is improving and is a nice type. He has a chance on his run last time. Mino Des Mottes is by It’s Gino, which is a plus. It’s going to be a tough assignment but he’s a horse that’s improving all the time.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Barbizon and Hardy Stuff
It looks a hot Fred Winter this year and they are probably both up against it. Barbizon was very good the first day at Navan but hasn’t backed it up since, while Hardy Stuff will need to improve on what he showed at Cheltenham last time.

Manlaga: impressive winner at HaydockCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Manlaga and Mustang Du Breuil
We talk about them at the yard, and I don’t think anyone would want to split them. They’re both doing the right thing and going the right way. Manlaga might want some softer ground. Kempton would have been sharp enough for Mustang Du Breuil. We needed to get a run into him at the time and I think he’ll appreciate the stiffer track.

Padraig Roche, trainer of Saratoga
He’s travelled over well and he’s in good form, so we’re hoping for the best. The track, trip and ground shouldn’t be a worry to him, so we’re looking forward to it.

Joseph O’Brien, trainer of Glen To Glen and Dignam
Glen To Glen is in good shape and has plenty of experience. He’s prepared well and should like the ground. Dignam is also in good shape and we think he’ll enjoy the track so we’re hoping for a good run.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Pourquoi Pas Papa and Bibe Mus
Pourquoi Pas Papa ran very well at Haydock on slightly better ground. He’s an improving young horse with a chance in a very competitive race. We thought Bibe Mus was quite a nice horse, but he surprised me a little bit on Saturday. It got him into the race and although running three days later is not ideal, he seems to have come out of it fine.

James Owen, trainer of Ammes
He did well in the autumn over hurdles and the form of his second in the Wensleydale has been boosted. He’s had a freshen up and a run back on the Flat at Lingfield. He’s in great form and looks to be well handicapped on that Wetherby run. We’re really happy with him and Sean Bowen can ride, which is great.

Josh Moore, joint-trainer of Macktoad
He’s been working well with Mondo Man, who won the Imperial Cup on Saturday, and he schooled well on Monday. It might be that he’s a big baby and is next year’s horse, but he might have ended up well handicapped. We thought we’d be training him for the Triumph but he’s been so disappointing on his last two starts. He won on decent ground in France and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran well.

Expert assessment: Because of the way the BHA and Racing Post handicap juvenile hurdlers, it is not necessary to match your official rating to get in the mix. Even the ‘best-handicapped’ horses in the race have 6lb to find, and on the standards would hit the frame if they improved by a handful of pounds.

Winston Junior is of clear interest, as the only horse with relevant course form and a mark that is not unduly harsh (RPR 123, OR 131). Saratoga represents the best formline, although he has a lot to make up on the ratings at -11.

3.20 – Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase

How many pounds in hand to win/place: 12.3lb, 0.7lb

Best trial: The previous season’s Ultima. In the last decade there have been two repeat winners, while 2019 scorer Beware The Bear had been fourth the year before.

Horses with the best course form: Hyland is 3-5 at Cheltenham, albeit both chase wins here came in small fields. Jagwar‘s 2-4 record is arguably superior given both defeats have still ended with him being placed in premier handicaps. Blaze The Way and Myretown are both 1-1 here, the wins coming in premier handicaps. Myretown won last year’s Ultima.

Key quotes:

Josh Guerriero, joint-trainer of Iroko and Jagwar
We’d like it softer for Iroko but it was good to soft at Ascot, so I don’t think it will be a problem for him. He’s got to lump top weight, which won’t be easy, but he seems in great form and he’s a better horse than ever this season. The ground will help Jagwar because he probably wants nice ground. He’s got to stay but we all think he will and if it brings out a bit of improvement, he’ll go very well. He seems in great form at home. I really couldn’t split them; on the track you’d say Iroko is better but at home Jagwar seems the better horse.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Handstands
He’s come out of his last run at Windsor in the best form he’s been in all season and, if he’s as good as I think he is and he stays, he’s going to be very competitive off this mark.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Resplendent Grey
He wears first-time blinkers and is in good form after a very good run at Windsor. If he gets into a rhythm, he’s got an each-way chance.

Joel Parkinson, joint-trainer of Konfusion
He’s got a nice weight and he should still be competitive off his mark. He’s had a break since Haydock and he went for a racecourse gallop at Wetherby, and preparations couldn’t have gone better. We don’t think we can have him any better, so there’ll be no excuses.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Search For Glory and Patter Merchant
Jack [Kennedy] is on Patter Merchant, who has a nice low weight but was a bit disappointing last time at Punchestown. Search For Glory wasn’t himself in the Thyestes, but wouldn’t be out of it if he returned to the sort of form he showed in the Paddy Power at Christmas.  

Johnson White, joint-trainer of Imperial Saint
He’s come out of the Peter Marsh really well. He’s slightly overpriced compared to some other horses in the race he’s been competitive with in the past. The ground will be very suitable for him, and he’s run very well at Cheltenham before. He’s going there with a good each-way chance. He’s got an entry in the Grand National, which gives you an indication of what we think his stamina limits might be.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Hyland
He took a bit of time to warm up in the autumn, but his work at Kempton the other day was good and I think the cheekpieces will sharpen up his jumping a bit. The ground will suit him but for a race of this competitiveness, he’s got to be right on the ball.

Josh Moore, joint-trainer of Blow Your Wad
This race comes up quite quickly after Newbury but he’s very well, which is why we’re running him. He’s been reassessed since the weights came out and we’re four pounds well in. He’s gone well the last twice and the only negative is that this will be three quick runs in a row.

Myretown on his way to winning last year’s UltimaCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Lucinda Russell, joint-trainer of Myretown
He hasn’t got such a weight advantage as last year, but he was very impressive then and he’s got more experience now. He hasn’t had quite as nice a run-up this time.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Quebecois
The better the ground, the better it will be for him. He wouldn’t want soft ground over three miles, that’s for sure. He ran very well on Trials day over two and a half miles and we’ve always had this race in mind for him. He should have a lovely chance.

Expert assessment: There is a lot to like on precedent with last year’s winner Myretown, especially considering his yard had one of the previous dual winners (Corach Rambler) and he races prominently. That last point is arguably the strongest signal of all in this race, more so when the ground is testing. The likes of Konfusion, Imperial Saint and Leave Of Absence, the last-named being a course winner this season, are prominent racers worth a second look.

4.40 – Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase

How many pounds in hand to win/place: 11.6lb, 3.9lb

Best trial: Both 2m4f handicap chases at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day (January 24 this year), although this season there are no runners from the novice version. 

Horses with the best course form: Peaky Boy is 3-4 at Cheltenham, and while the wins were all over hurdles, he was third to Haiti Couleurs in December 2024 on his only visit over fences. Zurich is 1-1, having won a novice handicap over this course and distance that has worked out really well. Madara, while 1-6, placed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and December Gold Cup in 2024.

Key quotes:

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Dee Capo and Down Memory Lane
Jack [Kennedy] was absolutely brilliant on Down Memory Lane at Navan. He gave him an absolute peach. We’ve given him time since then and freshened him up. He’s a good horse on his day but he can be hard to trust. Dee Capo has top weight and it won’t be easy in a race like this with such a burden.

Ben Pauling, trainer of No Questions Asked
We’re probably near the top of our handicap mark and I thought we needed to change things up to find some improvement. If he stays the trip, he’s going to have a lot of tactical speed in a race like this. I think he’s going to run a decent race at a big price.

Madara (left): likes CheltenhamCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Dan Skelton, trainer of Boombawn, Madara & Riskintheground
I think Boombawn and Riskintheground are probably a little high in the handicap. Madara ran really well last time and he comes back to a track he’s run well at before. He has a big chance.

Willie Mullins, trainer of O’Moore Park
We’ve swerved a novice race and decided to let him take his chance in open company. Sean O’Keeffe knows him well. There’s a big race in this guy and he has good place form around this track.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Booster Bob
He’s very hot and cold – when he’s good he’s good, when he’s bad he’s bad. He seems in good form and has been trained for the race.

Emmet Mullins, trainer of McLaurey
He’d prefer a bit of cut in the ground as all his form is on soft, like at the DRF last year, so I was glad to see them watering. He’s in good form but he might just lack the experience over fences. I think he’s coming right, but the experience is a slight concern.

Expert assessment: While a couple of Irish-trained novices in the mid-2010s won this race on their first visit to Cheltenham, most winners tend to have some sort of relevant course experience. Even The Shunter had won the Greatwood Hurdle. 

That trend is expected to stand up even though this race has switched courses this year, from the New to the Old. The move might give front-runners a bit more of an edge than before, with the Old course being a little tighter, while horses looking for quicker ground rarely get it this early in the week. There is some evidence that it could be quicker than usual for a Tuesday, in which case Zurich would be high on the list. Otherwise, his stablemate Theatre Native (1-2 at Cheltenham) is arguably the most aligned with the typical winner.

5.20 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase (not a handicap before 2025)

How many pounds in hand to win/place: 12lb, 1lb

Best trial: The 3m1½f novice handicap chase at Cheltenham’s December meeting (December 13 this season) produced last year’s winner, with the second coming from a 3m novice handicap chase at Doncaster on Great Yorkshire Chase day (January 24 this year).

Horses with the best course form: Wade Out is the only course winner in the field, under a memorable never-say-die ride from Sean Bowen in November. One Big Bang was second that day, and also fifth in last year’s Pertemps Final.

Key quotes:

Olly Murphy, trainer of Wade Out
He has been trained for the race since winning at the course in November. He stays well and the cheekpieces will help him, as will the nicer ground. We’re really looking forward to him.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Pic Roc
It’s all about rhythm for him. If he gets into a good one then he’ll run a big race. He’ll stay every yard of the trip and, on this better ground, I wouldn’t want to be running him over shorter. He’s in the best form he’s been in for a long time.

Lucinda Russell, joint-trainer of King Of Answers
He looks like he’s going to make a nice stayer, so the trip should be fine. It doesn’t look like he’s on a terrific mark, but if there’s a bit of improvement due to the new distance, he’ll be taking advantage of it.

James Owen, trainer of One Big Bang
He has course form and he stays well. He’s done well in novice chases this season and Alex [Chadwick] has got on very well with him. This has been his target and he’s in good shape going into it.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Kurasso Blue and Will Do
Jack [Kennedy] has picked Kurasso Blue and he’s quite an unexposed stayer with plenty of upside. We’ve had this race in mind for him for a while. Will Do was placed in the race last year and has plenty of experience.

Grand Geste (left) on his way to winning the Grand National Trial at HaydockCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Joel Parkinson, joint-trainer of Grand Geste
We couldn’t be happier with him. He looks like he’ll get better and better the further he goes. He got bashed about a bit at Haydock last time, but it was just superficial cuts and bruises and he’s come out of it all okay. He’s back fresh and he’s ready to run.

Emmet Mullins, trainer of Backmersackme
This has been the plan, since he finished second here [in October] and he hit the line well. He was second in the Proudstown [at Navan, December 2024] and the form worked out well with Oscars Brother and Flicker Of Hope. We originally thought we couldn’t go far enough with him in trip, so we’re hopeful he’ll stay.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Holloway Queen
I’m a bit worried about the ground for her, but she was really good at Newbury the other day. She does love very soft ground.

Paul Nolan, trainer of Iceberg Theory
He won well at Cork and the step up in trip should suit as he stays all day. He hit the line strong at Cork and he jumps well.

Joe Tizzard, trainer of First Confession
I think he’s got a great each-way chance. He’s stepping up in trip, which I think will help him as he’s ready for it.

Emma Lavelle, trainer of Silver Thorn
I’m really happy that he got in the race as the trip will be a big bonus for him. He didn’t love the soft ground at Newbury last time, he has a low weight here and I expect him to outrun his odds.

Expert assessment: Take everything here advisedly, as this is just the second year this race has been run as a handicap. The Haiti Couleurs race from last season looks nothing like as strong this time, so the performance Newton Tornado put up in the above-mentioned race at Doncaster is all the more appealing. He also represents last year’s winning trainer. 

Last year’s race flipped the long-standing Irish domination on its head, and there is little reason to think that will be a fluke given it turned out to be one of the most indicative formlines of the whole spring.

Additional reporting by Peter Scargill and Andrew Dietz

Read more Raceday Intel:

The final verdict on the Champion Hurdle: we asked some top judges what’s going to happen in Tuesday’s big race 

The novices at Cheltenham are the best around – but which contenders already beat the ten-year standard?  

Confirmed runners and riders for the three Grade 1 races on day two of the Cheltenham Festival 

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