California 2026 Poll: Swalwell Takes Lead in Governor Primary, 25% undecided; Election for LA Mayor Wide Open

A new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of the June primary for Governor finds Congressman Eric Swalwell leading the open primary with 17%, followed by Steve Hilton (13%), Tom Steyer (11%), Chad Bianco (11%), and Katie Porter (8%). A quarter of voters, 25%, are undecided. 

“Rep. Swalwell’s support increased among Democratic voters in the past month from 23% to 27%, along with Tom Steyer, whose support among this group also increased from 12% to 16%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “A plurality of the independent electorate is undecided (39%), while 12% support Swalwell and Hilton respectively, and Republicans are split between Hilton (38%) and Bianco (34%).”

In the Los Angeles election for Mayor, a majority of voters are undecided (51%). Incumbent Democratic Mayor Karen Bass enters her re-election campaign with 20% support, followed by reality television star Spencer Pratt (10%), Councilwoman Nithya Raman (9%), entrepreneur Adam Miller (4%), and housing advocate Rae Huang (3%).

“Democrats are split between Mayor Bass and Nithya Raman; 27% support Bass and 14% Raman, while 29% of Republican voters support Spencer Pratt,” Kimball noted. “Independents are largely undecided at 67%, along with 49% of Democrats and 37% of Republicans, indicating this race could shift dramatically come June.” 

Governor Gavin Newsom holds a 45% job approval rating among California likely voters, up one point from February, while 40% disapprove of the job he is doing. President Donald Trump holds a 28% job approval, while 64% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Mayor Karen Bass holds a 24% job approval rating among Los Angeles voters, while 47% disapprove of the job Bass is doing. 

Statewide, 48% of voters think California is headed in the right direction, while 52% think the state is on the wrong track. Los Angeles voters are evenly split: 50% think the state is heading in the right direction, and 50% think it is on the wrong track.

The top issue for California voters continues to be the economy (37%), followed by housing affordability (22%), threats to democracy (11%), immigration (8%), and healthcare (7%).

A majority of California voters (53%) think the issue of homelessness is getting worse, 33% think it is staying the same, and 15% think it is getting better. 

Voters were asked if they are more concerned or more excited about Artificial Intelligence (AI): 57% are more concerned, 20% more excited, and 23% feel neither.

A majority of voters, 64%, want the next Governor of California to stand up to the Trump administration, while 36% would rather they work with the Trump administration. 

• Among voters who want the next Governor to work with the Trump administration, 36% support Hilton for Governor, 31% Bianco, and 19% are undecided.
• Among voters who want the next Governor to stand up to the Trump administration, 25% support Swalwell for Governor, 15% Steyer, 12% Porter, and 28% are undecided. 

Forty-one percent of California voters have made a financial tradeoff in order to pay for groceries or food in the past year, while 59% have not. 

Methodology

The Emerson College California survey was conducted March 7-9, 2026. The sample of California likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The sample of Los Angeles likely voters consists of a sample size of n=350 with a credibility interval of +/- 5.2%. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, and education based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. 

Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text and email, voter lists provided by Aristotle. Additional online panel responses were collected via PureSpectrum; panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.

All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below. The survey is sponsored by Nexstar Media.