In or out? That’s the question.
And it’s an absolutely bonkers question ― at least if you ask many folks with Michigan college basketball connections, as The News did over the weekend.
“What,” said Central Michigan head men’s coach Andy Bronkema, “are we talking about here?”
Of course, we’re talking about Miami (Ohio), which has just completed the rare feat of going undefeated for an entire regular season. The RedHawks are 31-0. And yet, ahead of this week’s Mid-American Conference tournament in Cleveland, there’s a national sports debate raging on about what happens if Miami loses a game.
Former Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl ― whose former team, which just so happens to be coached by his son, Steven, just happens to be on the NCAA Tournament bubble ― stirred the drink when he recently bashed Miami’s case for an at-large bid during a recent television appearance, before he backtracked amid some strong pushback.
“They might go to the NCAA Tournament and get beat by 50, but those young men in that program deserve the opportunity to do that,” said Jeff Smith, a longtime assistant at Oakland. “It’s historic and it’s amazing, and those kids deserve to be rewarded.
“It’s not their fault they play in the MAC.”
The NCAA Tournament field is made up of 68 teams, including 31 that are automatic bids that go to the winners of the conference tournaments. The other 37 go to at-large teams, a heavy majority of which always have been from the power conferences.
The MAC, a mid-major, traditionally has been a one-bid league. The last time the MAC got two teams in the NCAA Tournament was 1999, when, coincidentally, Miami made it as an at-large.
“The mid-major epitome of an enigma wrapped in a riddle,” said Steve Hawkins, former head coach at Western Michigan who’s now an assistant at Southern Illinois. “Their nonconference schedule is obviously the issue.
“Either way, to go through a conference like the MAC undefeated is unbelievable. Would they be undefeated if they played in a Power Four conference? No. But I’ve seen them play. They pass the eye test.”
The schedule, of course, is the paramount issue. KenPom, the highly regarded analytics service, ranks Miami’s strength of schedule at 274th in Division I. Because of that, Miami has no Quad 1 wins, and no Quad 2 wins. Miami is ranked No. 19 in the latest Associated Press poll (a voting by media members), but are ranked just barely inside the top 100 (91st) by KenPom.
KenPom is one of several analytics services used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
“The metric is winning,” Bronkema said. “Miami is undefeated. They’re in. That’s the metric.”
Bronkema also makes an interesting point on Miami’s scheduling.
“Ask it the other way around,” he said. “Give the same schedule to every team on the (NCAA Tournament) bubble. Are they gonna go undefeated?”
Said Smith: “They wouldn’t.”
Added Bronkema: “It’s pretty amazing that we’re having this conversation.”
Scheduling, of course, isn’t always has cut and dry as it seems, especially at the mid-major level, where many of the better teams have trouble getting games against power-conference foes. Many power-conference teams don’t want to pay $60,000 to $100,000 for a “buy” home game that they could lose.
Smith knows that all too well. He has voicemail and email inboxes full of “thanks, but no thanks” messages every year. Oakland annually plays one of the better nonleague schedules for mid-majors year after year (Michigan, Purdue, Houston and Michigan State this season), but a lot of that is thanks to the connections and friendships of Smith and head coach Greg Kampe. And even so, this season, Louisville booted Oakland from an MTE (multi-team event) at the last minute, costing Kampe and Co. more than $100,000. (Oakland was replaced by Eastern Michigan, which then beat one of the other teams in the MTE, Cincinnati).
“It’s unbelievably difficult,” Smith said of scheduling, “and it continues to become even more difficult.
“We’re not the unicorn in that.”
A reporter, Matt Brown of ExtraPointsMB.com, recently shed some light on Miami head coach Travis Steele and his staff’s scheduling efforts, digging up correspondence through a Freedom of Information Act request. He uncovered rejections or flat-out ghosting from schools like Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and others.
So Miami was left to play the like of Milligan, Indiana East, Trinity Christian, Eastern Kentucky, and, well, you get the idea. But in the MAC schedule, despite a whole lot of close calls, including a two-point win at Western Michigan and an overtime win at Ohio down the stretch, Miami finished 18-0.
“That’s hard to do,” said Hassan Nizam, a Dearborn Fordson alum and former Central Michigan assistant who now is on staff at Cal State Fullerton. “The entire body of work speaks for itself, and they are an elite team on both sides of the ball.
“The way they share and shoot the ball, they can play their way into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.”
Miami could make this all a moot debate by winning the MAC tournament, but it hardly will be a cakewalk. Akron went 26-5 and 17-1 in the MAC during the regular season; Akron, coached by John Groce (Steele’s brother), lost to Miami, 76-73, in their one meeting this season on Miami’s home court. They could meet again in Saturday’s MAC championship game. Akron (61st in KenPom, 251st in scheduling) has gotten completely overlooked nationally because of Miami’s perfection ― as the RedHawks look to join Kansas (2014-15), Wichita State (2013-14) and UNLV (1990-91) as the only Division I teams to be perfect with 30 wins or more entering the NCAA Tournament.
But if Akron or another team wins the MAC championship in Cleveland, that will force the NCAA Tournament selection committee to settle the Miami debate.
“Would you rather see Miami get in there and have a chance to do what we did?” said Smith, whose Oakland team was the NCAA Tournament’s darling in 2024, stunning Kentucky in the first round before falling to eventual Final Four team N.C. State in overtime in the second round.
“Or would you rather see Oklahoma get in and get their ass kicked on Tuesday night?”
That’s another question, and a good one.
The NCAA Tournament is built to appease the big schools ― even the expansion talk, mid-major folks fear, is just another way to get more mediocre power-conference schools into the field, rather than more good mid-majors. Yet, so many of March Madness’ greatest memories have come courtesy of Cinderella.
“I’m not going to sit here and say they’ve played a tough schedule, but perfect is perfect, and a field of 68 has plenty of room for any perfect Division I team,” said one of those Cinderella stories, Jack Gohlke, whose 10 3-pointers shocked Kentucky in 2024.
“The fact that we’re questioning them getting a bid is criminal.”
@tonypaul1984
