The Milwaukee Bucks (27-37) face the Miami Heat (37-29) Thursday at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Bucks vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1 with each winning at home (Bucks 128-117 Feb. 24; Heat 106-103 Nov. 26)
The Bucks have been spiraling recently, tallying a forgettable 3-7 record over their last 10 games. Milwaukee’s most recent outing was a 129-114 loss to the Phoenix Suns Tuesday, marking their sixth loss in 7 contests.
The Heat are on a 6-game winning streak after a 150-129 victory over the Washington Wizards Tuesday with C Bam Adebayo producing a historic 83-point performance. During their current winning streak, Miami has secured victories over the Detroit Pistons and Houston Rockets, both top-3 seeds in their respective conferences.
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Bucks at Heat odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bucks +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Heat -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bucks +6.5 (-110) | Heat -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 234.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Bucks at Heat key injuries
Bucks
- SG Kevin Porter Jr. (knee) questionable
- PF Bobby Portis (back) questionable
- C Jericho Sims (patella) questionable
Heat
- SG Tyler Herro (quad) questionable
- PF Nikola Jovic (back) out
- SG Pelle Larson (hip) available
- SF Norman Powell (groin) out
- C Kel’el Ware (shoulder) questionable
- SF Andrew Wiggins (toe) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Bucks at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 117, Bucks 108
SKIP.
There isn’t much value in backing the Heat (-250) to win at these odds, and the Bucks (+200) have been a mess despite PF Giannis Antetokounmpo returning to the court. If you’re interested, you can get Adebayo at +125 to score 25-plus points — and +320 for him to hit 30.
BET HEAT -6.5 (-110).
Although this is a decent-sized spread, the Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, while the Bucks are 3-7 ATS in the same span. Additionally, Miami is 20-13 ATS at home and 19-14 ATS when favored.
Comparatively, Milwaukee possesses a 14-17 ATS road record and is 20-20 ATS as underdogs.
BET UNDER 234.5 (-110).
Even though this is a pace-up spot for the Bucks (Miami leads the league in pace), Milwaukee has scored fewer than 100 points in 8 of their last 11 losses. While the Heat have the 14th-best record to the Over at home (17-16) this season, the Bucks are dead last in achieving the Over when on the road (10-21).
Playing at a faster pace hasn’t prevented Miami from still being a formidable defensive unit, ranking fourth in adjusted defensive rating (111.6). Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 24th in adjusted offensive rating (112.7).
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