A developing El Niño climate pattern is forecast to strengthen significantly during the second half of 2026, with some forecasters warning it could evolve into a rare “super” El Niño and potentially rank among the strongest events on record.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says El Niño conditions are already established in the tropical Pacific and are expected to intensify through the end of the year, while some forecast models suggest the event could rival or even exceed the strength of historic El Niño episodes.
What Is Super El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. Those warmer waters influence atmospheric circulation around the globe, altering rainfall, storm tracks and temperatures far beyond the Pacific basin.
Weather
A “super” El Niño is an informal term used by some meteorologists to describe an exceptionally strong event, generally when ocean temperature anomalies exceed about 2 degrees Celsius above average. Such events are rare. Since 1950, only a handful have occurred, including the powerful episodes of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
The NOAA does not classify El Niño events as “super.” Rather, it has referred to the strengthening El Niño as “very strong.”
What Does El Niño Do and When It Could Reach Peak Strength
El Niño affects weather by shifting the position of the jet stream and changing where storms develop and travel. In the United States, strong El Niño events often bring wetter conditions to parts of the South and California while increasing the likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions across portions of the northern tier of states.
“Currently, we are predicting above-normal precipitation during the fall and winter seasons over much of the Southern U.S.,” Johnna Infanti, a meteorologist at the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, told Newsweek. “The highest probabilities for above-normal precipitation are over the Gulf States and parts of the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic, indicating the areas where we have the most confidence.”
According to the Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is expected to continue strengthening through the remainder of 2026. The agency said there is an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño developing during October through December, with peak intensity likely arriving in late fall or early winter.
“Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes,” the Climate Prediction Center said in the outlook.
What Do Forecasts Show?
The latest climate models suggest warming waters across the equatorial Pacific will continue to intensify during the summer and autumn. NOAA estimates a 97 percent chance the event will persist into early spring 2027.
Other forecasting centers have also highlighted the potential for an unusually strong event. NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory said all 30 members of its experimental SPEAR forecast ensemble project a very strong El Niño peaking later this year, with every forecast member reaching a strength at least competitive with the strongest events observed over the past century.
The Biggest Threats Facing Vulnerable States
Precise forecasts about the expected U.S. impacts of the current El Niño pattern are not yet available, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok told Newsweek, as other atmospheric and climate variables can influence the impact. AccuWeather’s official forecast for the expected El Niño impacts this winter will be published in early October, Pastelok said.
However, generally speaking, some states are more vulnerable than others during El Niño winters. These include:
- California: Very significant rainfall can be felt across Southern California during the winter months, and the central Sierra Nevada can “get a lot more snow,” Pastelok said.
- Georgia: Heavy rainfall and cool fronts
- Alabama: Heavy rainfall and cool fronts
- South Carolina: Heavy rainfall and cool fronts
- Mississippi: Heavy rainfall and cool fronts
- Florida: More likely to experience severe storms during the winter months, including tornadoes.
- New York: Heavy rain and significant snow
- Vermont: Heavy rain and significant snow
- New Hampshire: Heavy rain and significant snow
“The risk of flash flooding and river flooding would increase along with the threat for severe weather to include a higher probability of tornadoes with the highest risk area generally being across the Deep South, the Gulf Coast into Florida,” Mark Wiley, a duty officer with the National Weather Service (NWS), told Newsweek. “A strong El Nino increases the chance of winter precipitation across the Southern U.S. if enough cold air is in place, particularly for freezing rain.”
Why Some States Face Greater Risks Than Others
Historical El Niño patterns suggest that some states are more likely than others to experience significant impacts.
California is often one of the most closely watched states during major El Niño events because a stronger Pacific jet stream can steer powerful winter storms into the region, raising the risk of heavy rainfall, flooding and mountain snow in the Sierra Nevada.
Across the Gulf Coast and Southeast—including Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida—strong El Niño winters have frequently been associated with wetter-than-average conditions and an increased risk of severe weather episodes during the cool season.
By contrast, portions of the northern United States and Pacific Northwest often experience warmer and relatively drier conditions during strong El Niño events, although local outcomes can vary substantially from year to year.
Why Forecasters Are Watching the Pacific Closely
Scientists are monitoring not only current ocean temperatures but also a large reservoir of unusually warm water beneath the Pacific Ocean’s surface. The NOAA says this subsurface heat is helping fuel continued strengthening of El Niño conditions. Recent atmospheric patterns, including changing wind behavior across the tropical Pacific, also indicate the ocean and atmosphere are becoming more tightly coupled—a signal that typically supports further intensification.
Because the strongest El Niño events can influence everything from winter storms and flooding to agriculture and hurricane activity, forecasters say even small changes in ocean temperatures over the next several months could have significant consequences for seasonal weather outlooks.
El Niño’s Marine Impact
El Niño’s effects may also show up in the water. Marine scientists expect unusually warm Pacific conditions to draw a wider range of sea life into West Coast waters, including juvenile white sharks, stingrays, mahi mahi, bluefin tuna, sea turtles and even yellow-bellied sea snakes, USA Today reported.
Douglas McCauley, director of the Benioff Ocean Initiative at the University of California, Santa Barbara, told the outlet that researchers expect “all kinds of weird tropical things” to move north with the warmer water.
The changes could be especially noticeable off California, where El Niño can disrupt the cold, nutrient-rich upwelling that normally supports the coastal food chain.
Chris Lowe, a marine biology professor and director of the Shark Lab at Long Beach State University, told USA Today that the shift can create “this whole different ocean.”
Squid, anchovies and sardines can be pushed north, and previous El Niño events have coincided with appearances of hammerhead, tiger and bull sharks off California, the outlet reported.
What Experts Say Comes Next
While confidence is growing that El Niño will become very strong, experts caution that no two events are identical. The atmosphere can respond differently from one year to another, and local weather outcomes may not perfectly match historical patterns.
Still, forecasters agree that the coming months will be critical. If Pacific waters continue warming at the current pace, the 2026-27 El Niño could rank among the strongest on record. Emergency managers, water agencies and weather offices across vulnerable states are already watching closely for signs of how the developing pattern may shape the upcoming fall and winter seasons.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Kate Nalepinski and Sam Wilson.
Update, 7/31/26, 4:45 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
