Blake Krass breaks down his best bet for the 2026 Indian Wells Open match between Jack Draper and Daniil Medvedev.
The Indian Wells Open is on to the quarterfinals. One of the biggest matches of the day sees World No. 11 Daniil Medvedev take on World No. 14 Jack Draper. The match begins at 8:00. p.m. ET.
Medvedev is -179 on the moneyline on the DraftKings Sportsbook, while Draper is +146. This is my best bet to target for the Draper vs. Medvedev match.
Jack Draper vs. Daniil Medvedev Preview
Last night, Jack Draper played one of the best matches in the history of Indian Wells. He went to a third-set tiebreaker against the greatest player the game has ever seen, Novak Djokovic. Draper let leads slip away in the third set and in the tiebreaker, but ultimately showed incredible fortitude to come back and defeat the No. 3 player in the world. Jack Draper has the potential to be one of the great players in the sport. Last summer, Draper got as high as No. 4 in the world after winning the title here at Indian Wells. Injuries have disrupted that progress, but Draper once again looks to be elite. Draper now needs to try to bounce back and be ready to go again in the quarterfinals as he works to defend his title.
Daniil Medvedev has found something in his game. Medvedev split from his long-time coach, Gilles Cervara, in September 2025. Medvedev is now working with Thomas Johansson and Rohan Goetzk. It was clear that Medvedev had hit a rut in his career over the last couple of years, but his game looks the best it has in a long time since the coaching change. Almost immediately after making the swap, Medvedev won the Almaty Open in October of last year. To start off 2026, he won another title at the Brisbane International. Medvedev won his second title of the year in Dubai in the lead up to Indian Wells. After going 29 months without winning, Medvedev has now won three titles in the past six months.
Jack Draper vs. Daniil Medvedev Pick, Best Bet
My best bet is on Daniil Medvedev to win this match against Jack Draper. Draper has not been able to stay healthy the past few months, and his fitness is still in question. Last night, Draper played about as exhausting a three-set match as one could possibly play, both physically and mentally. It was a big breakthrough moment for Draper to take down Djokovic, but he must be wiped out today. Meanwhile, Medvedev has not been remotely challenged in any of his first three matches at Indian Wells, winning each of them in two sets.
Daniil Medvedev has been one of the best players at Indian Wells over the past few years. He made the final in both 2023 and 2024, losing to Carlos Alcaraz both times. He then made the semifinals last year, losing to Holger Rune. So, Medvedev has made at least the semifinals at Indian Wells each of the past three years, even when he was not playing great tennis in 2024 and 2025. Now that Medvedev is back at a high level, he should challenge for the title this year. Medvedev loves to get into long rallies and make his opponents work hard. That is bad news for Draper, who will be struggling after last night’s marathon. Medvedev should wear Draper down and move on to the semifinals for the fourth straight year at Indian Wells.
Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev ML (-179)
