The Nevada men’s basketball team plays Utah State on Friday at the Mountain West Tournament. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (21-11) vs. Utah State (26-6)
When: Friday, 6:30 p.m.
Where: Thomas & Mack Center (11,536 capacity)
TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: Utah State by 6.5 points; total of 145.5
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Strength in numbers: Nevada’s first two wins at this year’s Mountain West Tournament have seen a strength-in-numbers approach. In the first-round shellacking of Air Force, no Nevada player scored more than 11 points with 11 players scoring at least one basket. In the quarterfinal win over Grand Canyon, Corey Camper Jr. played like a star (27 points), but the Wolf Pack found a way to win despite an off night by All-MW honoree Elijah Price (six points in 21 minutes), thanks to big efforts from Vaughn Weems (16) and Kaleb Lowery (nine) plus chip-in efforts from Tayshawn Comer (nine), Joel Armotrading (seven) and Tyler Rolison (six). Nine players made a field goal in that win. That formula must be in place against Utah State, which won’t be beaten if Nevada doesn’t get sizable efforts up and down its lineup.
2. Plus-10 in points in the paint: Among the top-four teams in the MW – Utah State, San Diego State, New Mexico, Grand Canyon – the Wolf Pack matches up best against the Aggies, who don’t have a dominant frontcourt presence like those other schools. Utah State has a strong offense but can be vulnerable on defense if its pressure attack doesn’t create turnovers. The Wolf Pack has struggled at times against that pressure, with 29 turnovers in its two regular-season games against Utah State. But if it handles that pressure, Nevada should have an advantage in the post as long as Elijah Price stays out of foul trouble. In its win over Utah State last month, the Wolf Pack had a 30-20 edge in the paint. That plus-10 mark should be the goal again in this game if Nevada is going to spring the upset.
3. Late-game execution: Why has Utah State been so good the last three seasons? In that period, the Aggies are 28-5 in “close games,” which is defined as contests decided by six points or fewer. That includes an 8-1 record this year, with the lone loss an 80-77 defeat at Nevada on Feb. 21. It’s fair to expect this to be a close game, so whichever side executes best down the stretch should prevail. The Wolf Pack has been no slouch in close games, going 8-4 this season. Nevada was strong in clutch time in Thursday’s MW Tournament quarterfinal against Grand Canyon, hitting its free throws late and creating two massive takeaways in the final 90 seconds to secure the win. It needs a repeat performance.
Prediction
Nevada 76, Utah State 73: Nevada is in the MW Tournament semifinal for the first time since 2021, putting it two victories shy of an NCAA Tournament berth, which Utah State has already locked up thanks to a strong regular season. There’s a lot more on the line for the Wolf Pack, but the Aggies didn’t look content with an at-large bid after dismantling UNLV, 80-60, in its quarterfinal after a pair of double-digit losses to the Rebels in the regular season. Nevada did a fantastic job against Utah State star MJ Collins Jr. during its two regular-season matchups, limiting him to 11.5 points per game on 6-of-20 shooting (30 percent), well below his season averages – 17.7 ppg on 49.4 percent shooting. If Nevada keeps Collins in check again, it could head to the MW title game. Season record: 20-12
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
