Keagan Smith details his pick and prediction for Saturday’s Charlotte 49ers vs. USF Bulls college basketball matchup.
Conference tournaments continue on Saturday across the college basketball landscape. The semifinal round of the American Athletic Conference tourney sees the top-seeded USF Bulls battle the upstart Charlotte 49ers to punch a ticket to the championship game. Will we get an upset in this contest, or will the favorites’ dominant run through the conference continue today?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Charlotte vs. USF on Saturday, March 14 in the AAC Tournament.
Charlotte vs. USF prediction, preview
Charlotte 49ers
Just getting to the semifinals of this tournament is impressive for Charlotte. The program sits 17-16 overall on the campaign and just 9-9 in conference play. That earned the 49ers the No. 5 seed in a weak AAC, but they did notably down both No. 9 Tulane and No. 4 UAB to get to this point. This’ll still be a very difficult battle given their 0-4 record against Quad 1 teams like USF though, as well as an 0-5 mark against Quad 2 sides.
Charlotte falls all the way to 181st in the KenPom rankings with a -1.10 NETRTG. The 49ers post 73.3 PPG and have the 105th-ranked ORTG, and their shooting splits aren’t too shabby with a 45.7% FG% and a 35.6% 3P%. They average 13.0 assists, but a 1.106 AST/TO ratio doesn’t inspire confidence and the team tends to grind games to a halt to begin with, sitting 348th in adjusted tempo. Moreover, Charlotte brings in only 34.4 rebounds per contest and allows 73.9 PPG to opponents with the 284th DRTG in the nation.
The 49ers are led in scoring by Ben Bradford with 13.5 PPG, and he brings in 3.8 rebounds to go along with it. Dezayne Mingo posts 12.7 points with a team-high 4.7 assists, also shooting 38.6% from three. Anton Bonke brings 10.4 points with a team-best 8.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocks as well. However, those are the only three players scoring in double figures, with Damoni Harrison playing a key role along with a deeper rotation.
USF Bulls
The Bulls earned the top spot in the conference tournament and hold a 23-8 overall record with an impressive 15-3 mark in AAC play. They’ve showed fight against some quality teams all season and are notably 5-2 against Quad 2 teams along with 6-3 against Quad 3s like Charlotte, as well. Notably, this will be their first game of this tourney after getting a bye all the way to the semifinal, so rest is on their side.
USF sits 52nd in the KenPom rankings with a +15.25 NETRTG. The program plays an up-tempo style and leans heavily on its offense, which averages 87.6 PPG, sixth-most in the nation. The Bulls shoot just 43.7% overall and 33.0% from three, but they make up for the lack of efficiency with the third-most shot attempts on a per-game basis. They also dish 17.0 assists with a nice 1.499 AST/TO ratio, and dominance on the boards with 42.6 rebounds per game places them third in the country in that stat as well. The defense doesn’t produce to the same level by allowing 77.4 PPG, but USF does rank 24th in opponent turnovers and boasts the 55th-ranked DRTG in the league.
Wes Enis paces the roster with 16.5 PPG, while Izaiyah Nelson produces 15.8 points with a team-high 9.8 boards in the frontcourt. Joseph Pinion averages 14.2 PPG as well, and Josh Omojafo brings 11.7 points with 5.2 rebounds. CJ Brown also contributes 11.4 points with a team-high 5.0 assists. That makes for five double-digit scorers on the team, while no other player logs even 15 minutes per game.
Charlotte vs. USF pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists USF as a 15.5-point favorite with -1600 odds on the Moneyline. Charlotte is a +900 ML underdog with the game total set at 153.5 combined points.
Clearly, the Cinderella run stops here for the 49ers assuming this matchup plays out as anticipated. Last time these teams met back on March 8 in the regular-season finale, the Bulls dominated with an 83-60 victory on their home floor, winning the rebounding battle by five boards and forcing 15 turnovers from their opponent in the process with 11 steals. Their largest lead of the day was 32 points.
Now, another 23-point win may be a little more difficult, but there’s still an excellent chance for USF to cover the 14.5-point spread today. The Bulls are 16-14 ATS this season overall, 13-11 ATS as the favorite and 10-8 ATS in conference games. While the opponent will look to slow the tempo, the sheer volume at which USF puts up shots should still prove overwhelming to a Charlotte attack that lacks many standout scoring options. If you factor in the disruption the Bulls create on the glass and in passing lanes, plus the last outcome of this matchup, 16 points feels perfectly achievable. USF should punch its ticket to the conference title game.
Best Bet: USF Bulls -16.5 (-108)
