Featherweights
BETTING ODDS: Rahiki (-270); Hardwick (+220)
Rahiki (7-0; 0-0 UFC), the featherweight division’s shiniest new
thing, seeks to make a splash against Hardwick (13-4-1; 0-1 UFC),
who must rebound from having made a resounding splat in his own
debut last September. “Freaky” Rahiki, a 23-year-old Moroccan by
way of Australia, blew out Ananias
Mulumba on
Dana White’s Contender Series last fall to earn this spot,
barely 18 months from his professional debut. He is very green in
terms of experience and strength of schedule, but the skills are
there to be a contender, as well as a confidence and swagger that
will invite a few Sean
O’Malley or young Conor
McGregor comparisons if he pans out.
Rahiki is a rangy, fast-twitch kickboxer who moves well, uses
feints, picks his spots and then explodes with powerful kick and
punch combinations. He is accurate and throws to a variety of
targets; it’s impressive to see a fighter who has finished most of
his fights in the first round already knowing enough to invest in
leg and body work. Rahiki’s takedown defense and ground game have
been tested only rarely thus far, and by opponents who were badly
overmatched and in most cases already hurt. It’s possible that
grappling will be a liability for the youngster, but we simply
don’t know yet.
For my money, Hardwick was the biggest letdown of any free-agent
signing in the UFC in 2025, including Patrick
Mix. While Hardwick came to the UFC with much less hype than
“Patchy,” Mix was merely flat and inert in a pair of bad decision
losses, while Hardwick got blown out in three minutes by Kaue
Fernandes, using almost nothing but leg kicks. Hardwick’s
contender upside was debatable, but the long-reigning
Cage Warriors champ seemed to have a very high floor as a guy
who clearly at least belonged in the Octagon. After the Fernandes
fight, it’s still on “Houdini” to prove that last bit.
At his best, Hardwick is another iteration of the classic UK
contender: a well-rounded kickboxer who is more than capable of
pancaking an opponent’s reactive takedown, taking his back and
choking him out if the opportunity presents itself. While Hardwick
doesn’t have massive power, he throws enough volume that the TKOs
come anyway, and he is the kind of smart, aggressive fighter who is
good at winning rounds—a crucial skill that contributed to his
nine-fight unbeaten streak headed into the Fernandes fight.
One of the most intriguing unknowns about this fight is where
Hardwick is, competitively. It still seems bizarre that such a
reliably skilled and well-coached fighter failed so spectacularly
to make any in-fight adjustments as Fernandes sawed his lead leg
off. Assuming that was an aberration, he still has a place in the
UFC featherweight division, but unfortunately for Hardwick, that’s
only one of several ways that Rahiki might tune up on him. Rahiki’s
leg kicks are as nasty as Fernandes’, he has a full arsenal of
other strikes at his disposal, and while Hardwick is a skilled and
versatile defensive wrestler, his own takedowns are not especially
potent. It seems likely that Hardwick will be stuck on the feet
with a longer, quicker, and harder-hitting kickboxer, and the
results will be predictable. Rahiki by second-round TKO.
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Emmett vs. Vallejos
Lemos vs. Robertson
Cutelaba vs. Sy
Fili vs. Delgado
Rahiki vs. Hardwick
Petrino vs. Asplund
The Prelims
