AccuWeather’s 2026 severe weather season forecast
Find out what areas of the United States are most at risk for severe weather and tornadoes this spring.
- Middle Tennessee is expected to see minor snow accumulations March 16 as a cold front moves into the region.
- The Cumberland Plateau could see slightly higher accumulations due to its higher elevation.
- Colder temperatures will follow the snow event, with lows dropping into the teens and low 20s.
More snow is on the horizon for Middle Tennessee, as astronomical winter enters its final stretch.
Only minor accumulations are expected, however. According to the National Weather Service Nashville office, the region has a low chance for post-frontal snow the morning of March 16 as temperatures drop.
“Guidance trended a little cooler than I anticipated, but then again, it is still March and our climatological last freeze is March 31 here in Nashville,” wrote National Weather Service Meteorologist Ryan Husted in an email to The Tennessean.
The snow event will follow a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather March 15. According to the weather service, damaging winds and a low chance of tornadoes are likely. The cold front will sweep through the area during the overnight hours, bringing high rain and thunderstorm chances.
Here’s what else to know ahead of the cooldown.
Will Middle Tennessee receive more snow next week? How much is expected?
As of March 13, the probability of greater than one tenth of an inch of snow is less than 30%, meaning there’s less than a 30% chance of even seeing a dusting on March 16, wrote Husted.
“With recent warm temperatures, the ground has warmed, requiring higher snow rates for accumulation to occur,” he added. “Therefore, I wouldn’t worry about any travel issues at this moment.”
Where will it snow? Will snowfall continue?
The Cumberland Plateau is anticipated to receive more snowfall, due to its elevation. However, no significant accumulations are expected.
Chilly temperatures will follow Monday’s snow event. “Especially Tuesday morning, so if kiddos aren’t on Spring Break, they’ll need to bundle up for cold temperatures,” continued Husted.
The forecast currently calls for daytime temperatures in the 30s on March 16, dropping into the upper teens to low 20s by the morning of March 17, followed by highs in the upper 30s to low 40s throughout the day. Temperatures are expected to reach the high 60’s by March 19.
“Looking beyond our 7-day forecast, above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation are favored as we expect a less active weather pattern,” wrote Husted. “Therefore, we anticipate some very pleasant Spring days for the later portions of the month.”
Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or follow her on X at @_leyvadiana.
