A major winter storm is set to move in Saturday night, and continuing through Tuesday morning. There will be three phases to this storm.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS have been issued in the tip of the mitt in the northern lower, BLIZZARD WARNINGS in most of the U.P., and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES for most of the northern lower.
Phase 1: This will start off with an initial burst of snow for most areas. Most areas will see about 3-6 inches of snow with some localized 8″ amounts overnight into Sunday morning. Reduced visibilities and rates of 1-2 inches per hour are possible in some cases.
Phase 2: This will likely to stay mostly snow in most of the U.P. and the tip of the mitt with blizzard conditions, visibility near zero miles, and snowfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are possible, but there is a chance that some of these areas, especially closer to the Drummond Island area that could see some freezing rain mixing in. Areas generally from a line from Petoskey to Cheboygan south, and from Manistee to Alpena north, have the best chance of seeing some significant icing Sunday afternoon and evening, where as much as one quarter through three quarters of an inch of ice are possible late Sunday morning through early Monday morning. Areas generally south, have the best chance of switching to mostly rain where even a marginal to slight risk of severe weather is in place. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats, but even an isolated tornado downstate can’t be ruled out, mainly south of M-20. Timing, track, and amounts will likely vary as new model runs come in.
Phase 3: Much colder air wraps back around late Sunday and into Monday, where some very heavy snow moves back into most of the area. Reduced visibilities, very tough travel, and near blizzard-like conditions for the area. Some areas could see an additional 1-2 feet of snow in the U.P., with around 6-12 inches for most in the northern lower. Amounts diminish as you go south and east.
SATURDAY NIGHT: The start of our storm will begin with snow Saturday night (mostly after midnight). Snow arrives from south to north as the night progresses. Perhaps an inch or two of snow overnight. Lows from 17-31F. SE wind 10-20 mph.
SUNDAY (MAR 15): Thoughts are that snow will lift north early in the day. For the Eastern U.P,/Straits/Tip Of the Mitt region snow may continue (heavy) most if not all day long. For Northern Lower Michigan we may see a break with the snow ending for a time late morning/early afternoon. Here the concern will be with warmer air aloft and colder temperatures at the surface a wedge of freezing rain that will develop mid to late afternoon with the more likely areas to see that south of a Rogers City-Petoskey line although that could change. South of US-10 perhaps just rain there. High temperatures from 25-54F. SE to NE wind 20-30 with gusts 45-50 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Heavy snow continues north with freezing rain and possible crippling ice in parts of Northern Lower Michigan. Travel will be almost a no go areawide due to that combination of snow and ice. Lows from 18-30F. NE wind 20-35 with gusts to 50 mph.
MONDAY (MAR 16): Any freezing rain will end by mid-morning as colder temperatures drop in and the wind ramps up with everyone making the switch of snow (locally heavy) at times. This will combine with strong winds to lead to near blizzard conditions in some places (especially near the Great Lakes). Highs Monday from 25-32F. NE to North wind 25-35 with gusts to 50 mph.
TUESDAY (MAR 17): Snow will continue into Tuesday with some lake effect. Snowfall rates will certainly not be as strong as Sunday or Monday but roads could still be very slick. Highs of 14-25F.
SNOW TOTALS: From Saturday night through Monday evening 20+” of more is expected from a Traverse City-Gaylord-Rogers City line north with localized 30-38″ totals from Charlevoix-Petoskey-Cheboygan north into the Eastern U.P. Manistee-Alpena south is looking 3-10″ or so as it will be warmer here. An fluctuations in the track of the low will lead to changes in the snow totals.
